Will the largest company by market capitalization at the end of September be different from the largest company at the end of the previous September? [ resolved 2026-10-01 ]
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on September 30?
polymarket: [C] single source·reporting consensus methodology ›
distribution · by resolution date · marks: daily snapshot
polymarket 25 markets
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Company E | 2026-09-30 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0xa51810…cec8 | ||
| Company F | 2026-09-30 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x9288f2…ff8b | ||
| Company G | 2026-09-30 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0xb4393f…525b | ||
| Company H | 2026-09-30 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x646a8a…3dad | ||
| Company I | 2026-09-30 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x3b0291…6398 | ||
| Company J | 2026-09-30 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x86e7e4…0536 | ||
| Company K | 2026-09-30 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0xc75ae3…be2e | ||
| Company L | 2026-09-30 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0xb83263…2854 | ||
| Company M | 2026-09-30 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x180c74…ad5e | ||
| Company N | 2026-09-30 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x254bf6…8bf3 | ||
| Company O | 2026-09-30 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x07f0c2…2d87 | ||
| Company P | 2026-09-30 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x1666bc…936d | ||
| Company Q | 2026-09-30 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x737b1c…9759 | ||
| Company R | 2026-09-30 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0xb43f83…4c42 | ||
| Company S | 2026-09-30 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0xf07c52…2e9f | ||
| Company T | 2026-09-30 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x63f82e…4757 | ||
| Any other company | 2026-09-30 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x8fa4c3…d811 | ||
| NVIDIA | 2026-10-01 | 100.0% | $1.9K | $17K | C | 0x2f7fd7…9d15 | ||
| Alphabet | 2026-10-01 | 0.0% | $489 | $8.2K | C | 0x4f2835…bc91 | ||
| Tesla | 2026-10-01 | 0.0% | — | $2.1K | C | 0xef91c8…a4f2 | ||
| Saudi Aramco | 2026-10-01 | 0.0% | — | $2.9K | C | 0x1e7698…8376 | ||
| Broadcom | 2026-10-01 | 0.0% | $656 | $3.1K | C | 0x57753c…39de | ||
| Microsoft | 2026-10-01 | 0.0% | $10 | $2.4K | C | 0x711267…a359 | ||
| Apple | 2026-10-01 | 0.0% | $8 | $9.2K | C | 0x8dbac1…718c | ||
| Amazon | 2026-10-01 | 0.0% | — | $3.5K | C | 0xeba9bc…7b09 |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| polymarket | Whitelisted Proposers | uncommitted | not provided | Optimistic Oracle (UMA) | Other | — |
verbatim rules
polymarket
This market will resolve to the largest company in the world by market cap on September 30, 2026, as of market close.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
platform source field
polymarket.resolutionSource → ∅ no committed source — see rules text above resolution history
| outcome | market | venue | resolved | final price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NO | Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on September 30? | polymarket | 2026-09-30 | 0% |
| NO | Will Broadcom be the largest company in the world by market cap on September 30? | polymarket | 2026-09-30 | 0% |
| NO | Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on September 30? | polymarket | 2026-09-30 | 0% |
| NO | Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on September 30? | polymarket | 2026-09-30 | 0% |
| NO | Will Saudi Aramco be the largest company in the world by market cap on September 30? | polymarket | 2026-09-30 | 0% |
| YES | Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on September 30? | polymarket | 2026-09-30 | 100% |
| NO | Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on September 30? | polymarket | 2026-09-30 | 0% |
| NO | Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on September 30? | polymarket | 2026-09-30 | 0% |
Resolution dates are the venue's settlement timestamps (8 resolved markets). Rows shown as "by [date]" carry the contract deadline: the venue no longer exposes a settlement time for them. PENDING upgrades to a final outcome on the next refresh.
recent wire items
monitoring status: active no active wire
No CM Signal wire has been published for this event yet.
CM Signal’s news-cycle scan surfaces the day’s top stories alongside the prediction markets pricing them. When a story references this event, its wire is published here and links back to this page.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/largest-company-end-of-september-1785358369147/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/largest-company-end-of-september-1785358369147 |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("largest-company-end-of-september-1785358369147") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-08-04. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-M66WPNF0R5",
"slug": "largest-company-end-of-september-1785358369147",
"question": "Will the largest company by market capitalization at the end of September be different from the largest company at the end of the previous September?",
"category": "economics",
"tags": [
"economics",
"market-capitalization",
"tech",
"corporate-rankings",
"2026",
"global-business"
],
"venues_covered": [
"polymarket"
],
"market_count": 25,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 48246,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "C",
"rcg_score": 53,
"rcg_caps": [
"commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
],
"resolution_source": null,
"resolution_source_url": null,
"source_status": "no_committed_source",
"source_of_record": null,
"resolution_source_list": null,
"arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
"proposer_model": "managed_whitelist",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}