Will the Latvian parliamentary election result in a single party winning an outright majority by 2026? [ resolved 2026-10-04 ]
Will Jaunā Vienotība (JV) win the most seats in the 2026 Latvian parliamentary election?
polymarket: [A] single source·objective outcome methodology ›
distribution · by resolution date · marks: daily snapshot
polymarket 36 markets
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Another party | 2026-10-03 | 0.0% | — | — | A | 0xfe4a28…2605 | ||
| Party A | 2026-10-03 | 0.0% | — | — | A | 0xeb9e7d…a655 | ||
| Party B | 2026-10-03 | 0.0% | — | — | A | 0x8085c5…ebe5 | ||
| Party C | 2026-10-03 | 0.0% | — | — | A | 0xba145b…97c0 | ||
| Party D | 2026-10-03 | 0.0% | — | — | A | 0x18e871…ee70 | ||
| Party E | 2026-10-03 | 0.0% | — | — | A | 0xaf7235…32b1 | ||
| Party F | 2026-10-03 | 0.0% | — | — | A | 0x6291f6…454e | ||
| Party G | 2026-10-03 | 0.0% | — | — | A | 0xe37cdc…709c | ||
| Party H | 2026-10-03 | 0.0% | — | — | A | 0x881139…51f0 | ||
| Party I | 2026-10-03 | 0.0% | — | — | A | 0x7bdfa4…18b3 | ||
| Party J | 2026-10-03 | 0.0% | — | — | A | 0xdc75ed…4505 | ||
| Party K | 2026-10-03 | 0.0% | — | — | A | 0xa6a32f…98b2 | ||
| Party L | 2026-10-03 | 0.0% | — | — | A | 0x777913…9992 | ||
| Party M | 2026-10-03 | 0.0% | — | — | A | 0x5b8835…160c | ||
| Party N | 2026-10-03 | 0.0% | — | — | A | 0x22fcdd…4ce1 | ||
| Party O | 2026-10-03 | 0.0% | — | — | A | 0xc07c60…02dc | ||
| Party P | 2026-10-03 | 0.0% | — | — | A | 0x533548…63ef | ||
| Party Q | 2026-10-03 | 0.0% | — | — | A | 0x5edaf2…cbc8 | ||
| Party R | 2026-10-03 | 0.0% | — | — | A | 0xb15ef7…ad23 | ||
| Party S | 2026-10-03 | 0.0% | — | — | A | 0xdab25d…a182 | ||
| Party T | 2026-10-03 | 0.0% | — | — | A | 0xd46b80…c8ed | ||
| Party U | 2026-10-03 | 0.0% | — | — | A | 0x35bf79…cf7e | ||
| Party V | 2026-10-03 | 0.0% | — | — | A | 0xaffc3f…f910 | ||
| Party W | 2026-10-03 | 0.0% | — | — | A | 0x04330e…9ee5 | ||
| Party X | 2026-10-03 | 0.0% | — | — | A | 0x0a50ef…f7ec | ||
| Party Y | 2026-10-03 | 0.0% | — | — | A | 0x8dda4e…d168 | ||
| Party Z | 2026-10-03 | 0.0% | — | — | A | 0x04889b…b54c | ||
| Apvienotais Saraksts (AS) | 2026-10-04 | 100.0% | $918 | $30K | A | 0x0eac20…9e53 | ||
| Jaunā Vienotība (JV) | 2026-10-04 | 0.0% | $21 | $12K | A | 0x48ec35…3e02 | ||
| Zaļo un Zemnieku Savienība (ZZS) | 2026-10-04 | 0.0% | $20 | $52K | A | 0x09d1f8…26d3 | ||
| Nacionālā Apvienība (NA) | 2026-10-04 | 0.0% | $20 | $7.4K | A | 0x212c63…37fc | ||
| Stabilitātei! (ST!) | 2026-10-04 | 0.0% | $20 | $2.9K | A | 0x192132…1d07 | ||
| Latvija Pirmajā Vietā (LPV) | 2026-10-04 | 0.0% | $46 | $21K | A | 0xaca9f7…1f77 | ||
| Progresīvie (PRO) | 2026-10-04 | 0.0% | $30 | $28K | A | 0x5039c1…ecba | ||
| Suverēnā Vara (SV) | 2026-10-04 | 0.0% | $101 | $20K | A | 0x343925…be57 | ||
| Sociāldemokrātiskā Partija “Saskaņa” (S) | 2026-10-04 | 0.0% | $20 | $3.8K | A | 0xcb048c…6c48 |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| polymarket | Whitelisted Proposers | not provided | link | Optimistic Oracle (UMA) | Other | — |
verbatim rules
polymarket
Parliamentary elections are expected to be held in Latvia on October 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed political party or coalition that wins the greatest number of seats in the Latvian Parliament (Saeima) in the next Latvian Parliamentary election.
In the event of a tie between multiple parties/coalitions for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition in the Latvian Parliament. If a named coalition dissolves and does not contest this election, the corresponding market will resolve based on the number of seats won by the constituent party within that coalition that held the largest number of seats before the election.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by June 30, 2027 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Latvian government, specifically the Latvian Central Election Commission (https://www.cvk.lv/lv).
platform source field
polymarket.description → https://www.cvk.lv/lv sources (2) · stated precedence rule
resolution history
| outcome | market | venue | resolved | final price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NO | Will Suverēnā Vara (SV) win the most seats in the 2026 Latvian parliamentary election? | polymarket | 2026-10-04 | 0% |
| NO | Will Sociāldemokrātiskā Partija “Saskaņa” (S) win the most seats in the 2026 Latvian parliamentary election? | polymarket | 2026-10-04 | 0% |
| NO | Will Stabilitātei! (ST!) win the most seats in the 2026 Latvian parliamentary election? | polymarket | 2026-10-04 | 0% |
| NO | Will Latvija Pirmajā Vietā (LPV) win the most seats in the 2026 Latvian parliamentary election? | polymarket | 2026-10-04 | 0% |
| NO | Will Progresīvie (PRO) win the most seats in the 2026 Latvian parliamentary election? | polymarket | 2026-10-04 | 0% |
| NO | Will Zaļo un Zemnieku Savienība (ZZS) win the most seats in the 2026 Latvian parliamentary election? | polymarket | 2026-10-04 | 0% |
| NO | Will Nacionālā Apvienība (NA) win the most seats in the 2026 Latvian parliamentary election? | polymarket | 2026-10-04 | 0% |
| NO | Will Jaunā Vienotība (JV) win the most seats in the 2026 Latvian parliamentary election? | polymarket | 2026-10-04 | 0% |
| YES | Will Apvienotais Saraksts (AS) win the most seats in the 2026 Latvian parliamentary election? | polymarket | 2026-10-04 | 100% |
Resolution dates are the venue's settlement timestamps (9 resolved markets). Rows shown as "by [date]" carry the contract deadline: the venue no longer exposes a settlement time for them. PENDING upgrades to a final outcome on the next refresh.
recent wire items
- Apvienotais Saraksts leading the 2026 Latvian election priced as a lock 99% · $27K 24h
- 99% pricing treats an AS plurality in the 2026 Saeima as virtually certain, leaving a 1% residual for all alternatives.
- 30% of all-time volume arrived in the past 24 hours, a sharp late-campaign concentration as election day nears.
- Fresh volume at near-certainty odds implies traders are closing out short positions rather than initiating new long bets.
- Resolves on official 2026 Latvian parliamentary seat totals.
- Fresh volume backs AS to win most Latvian parliament seats 98% · $20K 24h
- Polymarket prices Apvienotais Saraksts at 98% to win the most seats in the 2026 Latvian parliamentary election, near certainty.
- 24h volume of $20K is 25% of all-time, suggesting a fresh wave of traders agreeing with the dominant consensus.
- The Baltic political context, AS as the established center-right bloc, supports a high-conviction single-party plurality.
- Resolves on official 2026 Latvian election results; the 2% residual reflects only black-swan coalition disruption risk.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/latvian-parliamentary-election-winner/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/latvian-parliamentary-election-winner |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("latvian-parliamentary-election-winner") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-08-04. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-TPH1FR3YZ0",
"slug": "latvian-parliamentary-election-winner",
"question": "Will the Latvian parliamentary election result in a single party winning an outright majority by 2026?",
"category": "politics",
"tags": [
"politics",
"elections",
"latvia",
"parliamentary-elections",
"2026",
"seat-plurality"
],
"venues_covered": [
"polymarket"
],
"market_count": 36,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 177543,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "A",
"rcg_score": 93,
"rcg_caps": [],
"resolution_source": null,
"resolution_source_url": "https://www.cvk.lv/lv",
"source_status": "platform_named",
"source_of_record": "Latvian Central Election Commission",
"resolution_source_list": [
{
"name": "cvk.lv",
"url": "https://www.cvk.lv/lv",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "Latvian Central Election Commission",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
}
],
"arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
"proposer_model": "managed_whitelist",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}