Will Ledger's IPO closing market cap be above $1B–$7B? [ resolves 2028-01-01 (544D) ]
polymarket: [A] multiple sources, tie-break·objective outcome methodology ›
distribution · by strike · marks: daily snapshot
polymarket 7 markets
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≥ $1,000,000,000 | 2028-01-01 | 50.6% | — | $7.7K | A | 0x65709c…2397 | ||
| ≥ $2,000,000,000 | 2028-01-01 | 68.0% | — | $4.0K | A | 0x095de7…07be | ||
| ≥ $3,000,000,000 | 2028-01-01 | 45.0% | — | $1.5K | A | 0x5c9a40…859d | ||
| ≥ $4,000,000,000 | 2028-01-01 | 49.0% | — | $1.0K | A | 0xe6c07c…9171 | ||
| ≥ $5,000,000,000 | 2028-01-01 | 17.0% | — | $3.7K | A | 0x5e99ba…0736 | ||
| ≥ $6,000,000,000 | 2028-01-01 | 16.0% | — | $433 | A | 0x6ccd7d…bf88 | ||
| ≥ $7,000,000,000 | 2028-01-01 | 4.4% | — | $634 | A | 0x5d4d82…5a1e |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| polymarket | Whitelisted Proposers | not provided | not provided | Optimistic Oracle (UMA) | Other | — |
verbatim rules
polymarket
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the official closing price for Ledger's market capitalization on its first trading day is above the value specified in the title. Otherwise, it will resolve to “No”.
If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”.
Market capitalization is defined as the total number of outstanding shares multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on Ledger’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading.
platform source field
polymarket.resolutionSource → ∅ none returned sources (1) · stated precedence rule
- another reliable source from rules text · editorial
recent wire items
monitoring status: active no active wire
No CM Signal wire has been published for this event yet.
CM Signal’s news-cycle scan surfaces the day’s top stories alongside the prediction markets pricing them. When a story references this event, its wire is published here and links back to this page.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/ledger-ipo-closing-market-cap-above/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/ledger-ipo-closing-market-cap-above |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("ledger-ipo-closing-market-cap-above") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-07-06. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-H0L9RT4600",
"slug": "ledger-ipo-closing-market-cap-above",
"question": "Will Ledger's IPO closing market cap be above ___?",
"category": "financials",
"tags": [
"financials",
"crypto",
"tech",
"finance",
"ipo",
"market-cap"
],
"venues_covered": [
"polymarket"
],
"market_count": 7,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 19079,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "A",
"rcg_score": 82,
"rcg_caps": [],
"resolution_source": null,
"resolution_source_url": null,
"source_status": "platform_named",
"source_of_record": null,
"resolution_source_list": [
{
"name": "another reliable source",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
}
],
"arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
"proposer_model": "managed_whitelist",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}