Will the Likud Party hold its primary election by the settlement date? [ resolves 2026-10-26 (83D) ]
polymarket: [C] multiple sources, no tie-break·reporting consensus methodology ›
distribution · by outcome · marks: daily snapshot
polymarket 43 markets
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Amir Ohana win the 2026 Likud party primary elections | 2026-10-26 | 30.0% | $40 | $7.0K | C | 0xa15194…fb5a | ||
| Will Yariv Levin win the 2026 Likud party primary elections | 2026-10-26 | 21.5% | $43 | $1.7K | C | 0x5d9f64…9d57 | ||
| Will Tally Gotliv win the 2026 Likud party primary elections | 2026-10-26 | 11.0% | $170 | $4.4K | C | 0x03d4e9…3c57 | ||
| Will there be no Likud party primary by the next Knesset Election | 2026-10-26 | 8.0% | $157 | $9.1K | C | 0xbe2521…b85a | ||
| Will Almog Cohen win the 2026 Likud party primary elections | 2026-10-26 | 6.3% | — | $223 | C | 0xb5c409…bc73 | ||
| Will David Amsalem win the 2026 Likud party primary elections | 2026-10-26 | 5.9% | — | $244 | C | 0xa9d526…fe3a | ||
| Will Amichai Chikli win the 2026 Likud party primary elections | 2026-10-26 | 5.6% | — | $225 | C | 0xacc2fb…c512 | ||
| Will Miri Regev win the 2026 Likud party primary elections | 2026-10-26 | 5.5% | — | $225 | C | 0xa5a9f0…5091 | ||
| Will Yoav Kisch win the 2026 Likud party primary elections | 2026-10-26 | 5.4% | — | $216 | C | 0x7729f6…ca10 | ||
| Will Miki Zohar win the 2026 Likud party primary elections | 2026-10-26 | 4.3% | — | $230 | C | 0x0317bf…3e01 | ||
| Will Eli Cohen win the 2026 Likud party primary elections | 2026-10-26 | 2.0% | — | $320 | C | 0xf88cca…d920 | ||
| Will Shlomo Karhi win the 2026 Likud party primary elections | 2026-10-26 | 2.0% | — | $330 | C | 0x737bfd…c465 | ||
| Will Israel Katz win the 2026 Likud party primary elections | 2026-10-26 | 0.8% | — | $1.5K | C | 0x45ead7…ccdd | ||
| Will David Bitan win the 2026 Likud party primary elections | 2026-10-26 | 0.7% | — | $500 | C | 0x13f405…b174 | ||
| Will Moshe Saada win the 2026 Likud party primary elections | 2026-10-26 | 0.5% | — | $488 | C | 0xca1e4c…d334 | ||
| Will Boaz Bismuth win the 2026 Likud party primary elections | 2026-10-26 | 0.5% | — | $498 | C | 0x789410…4ffd | ||
| Will Nir Barkat win the 2026 Likud party primary elections | 2026-10-26 | 0.3% | — | $1.6K | C | 0xffa99c…b183 | ||
| Will Person B win the 2026 Likud party primary elections | 2026-10-26 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x14176c…2773 | ||
| Will Person C win the 2026 Likud party primary elections | 2026-10-26 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0xdaeda5…cece | ||
| Will Person D win the 2026 Likud party primary elections | 2026-10-26 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x6d8bbb…bd2b | ||
| Will Person E win the 2026 Likud party primary elections | 2026-10-26 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x9b6a79…9ad0 | ||
| Will Person F win the 2026 Likud party primary elections | 2026-10-26 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0xb2bc5e…9158 | ||
| Will Person G win the 2026 Likud party primary elections | 2026-10-26 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0xa98273…4073 | ||
| Will Person H win the 2026 Likud party primary elections | 2026-10-26 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x6479c9…2ff8 | ||
| Will Person I win the 2026 Likud party primary elections | 2026-10-26 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x492c6d…a0a1 | ||
| Will Person J win the 2026 Likud party primary elections | 2026-10-26 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0xf3fcd7…e8a0 | ||
| Will Person K win the 2026 Likud party primary elections | 2026-10-26 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0xc3a368…b92c | ||
| Will Person L win the 2026 Likud party primary elections | 2026-10-26 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0xd54661…7465 | ||
| Will Person M win the 2026 Likud party primary elections | 2026-10-26 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x7390aa…9628 | ||
| Will Person N win the 2026 Likud party primary elections | 2026-10-26 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x4ee649…53db | ||
| Will Person O win the 2026 Likud party primary elections | 2026-10-26 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x8b5c58…43c1 | ||
| Will Person P win the 2026 Likud party primary elections | 2026-10-26 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x083c75…e136 | ||
| Will Person Q win the 2026 Likud party primary elections | 2026-10-26 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0xaa4883…62c5 | ||
| Will Person R win the 2026 Likud party primary elections | 2026-10-26 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0xaa1a6a…c59a | ||
| Will Person S win the 2026 Likud party primary elections | 2026-10-26 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x21a661…1ca3 | ||
| Will Person T win the 2026 Likud party primary elections | 2026-10-26 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0xed976f…9213 | ||
| Will Person U win the 2026 Likud party primary elections | 2026-10-26 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x7ec0d6…f7de | ||
| Will Person V win the 2026 Likud party primary elections | 2026-10-26 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0xffb33b…095e | ||
| Will Person W win the 2026 Likud party primary elections | 2026-10-26 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x0f006b…a3b7 | ||
| Will Person X win the 2026 Likud party primary elections | 2026-10-26 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x83703a…5ac1 | ||
| Will Person Y win the 2026 Likud party primary elections | 2026-10-26 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x25f8d2…e920 | ||
| Will Person Z win the 2026 Likud party primary elections | 2026-10-26 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0xe12356…ecb5 | ||
| Will another person win the 2026 Likud party primary elections | 2026-10-26 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x5e8314…8768 |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| polymarket | Whitelisted Proposers | uncommitted | not provided | Optimistic Oracle (UMA) | Other | — |
verbatim rules
polymarket
Primary elections for the Likud Party of Israel are expected to be held in 2026 to determine the composition of the Likud party list that will contest the 2026 Knesset elections. It is expected that the winner of the Likud party primary elections will occupy second place on the Likud party list, after the party leader.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the 2026 Likud primary elections.
If no Likud primary election occurs by the earlier of i) the 2026 Knesset elections, or ii) December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Tel Aviv time, regardless of whether a party list is released, this market will resolve to “No Primary by Knesset Election”. An official announcement of cancellation of the primary is not sufficient for this market to resolve to "No Primary by Knesset Election".
If the primary election takes place and election results are not known definitively by the earlier of i) the 2026 Knesset elections, or ii) December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Tel Aviv time, this market will resolve to the individual that occupies the second place on the Likud party list to contest the 2026 Knesset elections. If no such party list is released by the earlier of i) the 2026 Knesset elections, or ii) December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Tel Aviv time, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official information from Likud.
platform source field
polymarket.resolutionSource → ∅ no committed source — see rules text above sources (2)
- a consensus of credible reporting from rules text · editorial
- official information from Likud from rules text · editorial
recent wire items
monitoring status: active no active wire
No CM Signal wire has been published for this event yet.
CM Signal’s news-cycle scan surfaces the day’s top stories alongside the prediction markets pricing them. When a story references this event, its wire is published here and links back to this page.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/likud-party-primary-winner-20260720203933764/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/likud-party-primary-winner-20260720203933764 |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("likud-party-primary-winner-20260720203933764") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-08-04. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-PP14YG1S27",
"slug": "likud-party-primary-winner-20260720203933764",
"question": "Will the Likud Party hold its primary election by the settlement date?",
"category": "politics",
"tags": [
"politics",
"elections",
"israel",
"likud-party",
"party-primary",
"2026"
],
"venues_covered": [
"polymarket"
],
"market_count": 43,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 28886,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "C",
"rcg_score": 40,
"rcg_caps": [
"multi_source_no_conflict_rule",
"commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
],
"resolution_source": null,
"resolution_source_url": null,
"source_status": "no_committed_source",
"source_of_record": null,
"resolution_source_list": [
{
"name": "a consensus of credible reporting",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
{
"name": "official information from Likud",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
}
],
"arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
"proposer_model": "managed_whitelist",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}