Will there be a Los Angeles mayoral election by 2026? [ resolves 2026-07 – 2026-12 ]
Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?
polymarket: [C] multiple sources, no tie-break·reporting consensus methodology ›
distribution · by resolution date · marks: daily snapshot
polymarket 15 markets
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spencer Pratt | 2026-07-01 | 0.3% | — | $7.86M | C | 0x5a965e…4606 | ||
| Gina Viola | 2026-07-11 | 0.1% | — | $166K | C | 0x5b8958…dd83 | ||
| Rick Caruso | 2026-07-11 | 0.1% | — | $495K | C | 0x82e5dd…7c32 | ||
| Lindsey Horvath | 2026-07-11 | 0.1% | — | $1.69M | C | 0xe3c057…758d | ||
| Rae Huang | 2026-07-11 | 0.1% | — | $523K | C | 0xcc88b1…c64d | ||
| Monica Rodriguez | 2026-07-11 | 0.1% | — | $34K | C | 0x00b02b…e255 | ||
| Austin Beutner | 2026-07-11 | 0.1% | — | $45K | C | 0x540b8e…1c3e | ||
| Adam Miller | 2026-07-11 | 0.1% | — | $199K | C | 0x3b67bc…8b7b | ||
| Asaad Alnajjar | 2026-07-11 | 0.1% | — | $140K | C | 0x026b38…d0a5 | ||
| Karen Bass | 2026-12-31 | 64.0% | $4.0K | $707K | C | 0x0c9ada…7595 | ||
| Nithya Raman | 2026-12-31 | 37.9% | $8.4K | $1.17M | C | 0x694595…b463 | ||
| Another candidate | 2026-12-31 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x887dc9…f76f | ||
| Candidate H | 2026-12-31 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x73aa6d…ab84 | ||
| Candidate I | 2026-12-31 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0xc991be…9b6c | ||
| Candidate J | 2026-12-31 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x550597…0bbd |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| polymarket | Whitelisted Proposers | uncommitted | not provided | Optimistic Oracle (UMA) | Other | — |
verbatim rules
polymarket
The 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election will be held on June 2, 2026, to elect the mayor of Los Angeles, California. If no candidate receives a majority of the vote, a runoff election will be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate that wins the election.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting; however, if there is any ambiguity in the results, this market will resolve according to official information from the City of Los Angeles.
platform source field
polymarket.resolutionSource → ∅ no committed source — see rules text above sources (1) · stated precedence rule
- City of Los Angeles from rules text · editorial
recent wire items
monitoring status: active no active wire
No CM Signal wire has been published for this event yet.
CM Signal’s news-cycle scan surfaces the day’s top stories alongside the prediction markets pricing them. When a story references this event, its wire is published here and links back to this page.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/los-angeles-mayoral-election-117/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/los-angeles-mayoral-election-117 |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("los-angeles-mayoral-election-117") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-07-23. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-X47KV472H0",
"slug": "los-angeles-mayoral-election-117",
"question": "Will there be a Los Angeles mayoral election by 2026?",
"category": "politics",
"tags": [
"politics",
"elections",
"los-angeles",
"us-local-elections",
"2026",
"mayoral-race"
],
"venues_covered": [
"polymarket"
],
"market_count": 15,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 13019217,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "C",
"rcg_score": 54,
"rcg_caps": [
"multi_source_no_conflict_rule",
"commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
],
"resolution_source": null,
"resolution_source_url": null,
"source_status": "no_committed_source",
"source_of_record": null,
"resolution_source_list": [
{
"name": "City of Los Angeles",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
}
],
"arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
"proposer_model": "managed_whitelist",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}