Will the Massachusetts 4th Congressional District House election be won by a specific candidate by the 2024 election date? [ resolves 2026-11-03 (153D) ]
Will the Democratic Party win the MA-04 House seat?
polymarket: [C] reporting consensus methodology ›
distribution · by resolution date
polymarket 8 markets
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the Democratic Party win the MA-04 House seat | 2026-11-03 | 93.0% | — | $20K | C | 0x9c23f0…13c5 | ||
| Will the Republican Party win the MA-04 House seat | 2026-11-03 | 2.6% | — | $20K | C | 0x176291…0771 | ||
| Will another party win the MA-04 House seat | 2026-11-03 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0xa096ed…a8f8 | ||
| Will D win the MA-04 House seat | 2026-11-03 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x8eb466…ace7 | ||
| Will E win the MA-04 House seat | 2026-11-03 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0xdf2b29…9343 | ||
| Will A win the MA-04 House seat | 2026-11-03 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x38e913…c70b | ||
| Will B win the MA-04 House seat | 2026-11-03 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x8c504c…67bf | ||
| Will C win the MA-04 House seat | 2026-11-03 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0xdcf89e…8384 |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| polymarket | Whitelisted Proposers | uncommitted | not provided | Optimistic Oracle (UMA) | Other | — |
verbatim rules
polymarket
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MA-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
platform source field
polymarket.resolutionSource → ∅ no committed source — see rules text above recent wire items
monitoring status: active no active wire
No CM Signal wire has been published for this event yet.
CM Signal’s news-cycle scan surfaces the day’s top stories alongside the prediction markets pricing them. When a story references this event, its wire is published here and links back to this page.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
AI grounded search reads embedded JSON-LD in HTML. Developers query REST. Agentic AI clients (Claude Desktop, Cursor) call MCP tools. AI crawlers index via /llms.txt. Same canonical record at every surface.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/ma-04-house-election-winner/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/ma-04-house-election-winner.json |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("ma-04-house-election-winner") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-06-03. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-622LC3YW64",
"slug": "ma-04-house-election-winner",
"question": "Will the Massachusetts 4th Congressional District House election be won by a specific candidate by the 2024 election date?",
"category": "politics",
"tags": [
"politics",
"elections",
"2026-midterms",
"house-races",
"massachusetts",
"us-elections"
],
"venues_covered": [
"polymarket"
],
"market_count": 8,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 40147,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "C",
"rcg_score": 58,
"rcg_caps": [
"uncommitted_placeholder"
],
"resolution_source": null,
"resolution_source_url": "https://www.fec.gov/",
"arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
"proposer_model": "managed_whitelist",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}