Will Emmanuel Macron be out of office? (multi-deadline series, 2025-2026) [ resolved 2026-06-30 ]
Macron out in 2025?
polymarket: [C] single source·objective outcome methodology ›
markets · by resolution date · marks: daily snapshot
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| polymarket | Whitelisted Proposers | uncommitted | not provided | Optimistic Oracle (UMA) | Other | — |
verbatim rules
polymarket
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Emmanuel Macron ceases to be President of France for any length of time between January 2 and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET (inclusive). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If Macron departs from office before the expiry date, the market should resolve immediately.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the government of France, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
platform source field
polymarket.resolutionSource → ∅ no committed source — see rules text above sources (2)
- the government of France from rules text · editorial
- a consensus of credible reporting from rules text · editorial
resolution history
| outcome | market | venue | resolved | final price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NO | Macron out by June 30, 2026? | polymarket | 2026-06-30 | 0% |
| closed | Macron out in 2025? | polymarket | 2026-01-01 | — |
| closed | Macron out by October 31, 2025? | polymarket | 2025-11-01 | — |
Derived from the platform price + resolution-date snapshot (3 resolved markets). PENDING upgrades to a final outcome on the next refresh.
recent wire items
monitoring status: active no active wire
No CM Signal wire has been published for this event yet.
CM Signal’s news-cycle scan surfaces the day’s top stories alongside the prediction markets pricing them. When a story references this event, its wire is published here and links back to this page.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/macron-out-in-2025/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/macron-out-in-2025 |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("macron-out-in-2025") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-07-06. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-20RBBXSB30",
"slug": "macron-out-in-2025",
"question": "Will Emmanuel Macron be out of office? (multi-deadline series, 2025-2026)",
"category": "politics",
"tags": [
"politics",
"france",
"macron",
"2025",
"political-resignation",
"european-politics"
],
"venues_covered": [
"polymarket"
],
"market_count": 3,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 2024860,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "C",
"rcg_score": 74,
"rcg_caps": [
"commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
],
"resolution_source": null,
"resolution_source_url": null,
"source_status": "no_committed_source",
"source_of_record": null,
"resolution_source_list": [
{
"name": "the government of France",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
{
"name": "a consensus of credible reporting",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
}
],
"arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
"proposer_model": "managed_whitelist",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}