Will a major volcano eruption with VEI ≥6 occur in 2026? [ resolves 2027-03-31 (268D) ]
Major volcano eruption (VEI ≥6) in 2026?
polymarket: [B] multiple sources, tie-break·objective outcome methodology ›
markets · by resolution date · marks: daily snapshot
polymarket 1 market
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Major volcano eruption (VEI ≥6) in 2026 | 2027-03-31 | 9.0% | $65 | $95K | B | 0x9f66a2…00b6 |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| polymarket | Whitelisted Proposers | not provided | not provided | Optimistic Oracle (UMA) | Other | — |
verbatim rules
polymarket
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural volcanic eruption with a Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) of 6 or higher occurs between the market's creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), specifically the ‘VEI 6’ figure for 2026 released on the page currently titled "Eruptions Avg 2000-2024 (N/T)" (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear) as of March 31, 2027, 12 PM ET. Any prior updates will not be considered finalized.
If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant events by March 31, 2027, or if the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
Note: Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program databases, which include eruptions that reached the relevant threshold prior to this market’s timeframe (e.g., https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2025), will not be considered.
platform source field
polymarket.resolutionSource → ∅ none returned sources (5) · stated precedence rule
- volcano.si.edu venue-listed
- volcano.si.edu venue-listed
- volcano.si.edu venue-listed
- U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) from rules text · editorial
- national or regional volcanic observatories from rules text · editorial
recent wire items
monitoring status: active no active wire
No CM Signal wire has been published for this event yet.
CM Signal’s news-cycle scan surfaces the day’s top stories alongside the prediction markets pricing them. When a story references this event, its wire is published here and links back to this page.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/major-volcano-eruption-vei-6-in-2026/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/major-volcano-eruption-vei-6-in-2026 |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("major-volcano-eruption-vei-6-in-2026") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-07-06. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-LJ985D1D01",
"slug": "major-volcano-eruption-vei-6-in-2026",
"question": "Will a major volcano eruption with VEI ≥6 occur in 2026?",
"category": "climate",
"tags": [
"climate",
"natural-disaster",
"geological-event",
"vei-scale",
"2026-occurrence",
"extreme-weather"
],
"venues_covered": [
"polymarket"
],
"market_count": 1,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 95268,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "B",
"rcg_score": 79,
"rcg_caps": [],
"resolution_source": null,
"resolution_source_url": "https://volcano.si.edu/",
"source_status": "platform_named",
"source_of_record": null,
"resolution_source_list": [
{
"name": "volcano.si.edu",
"url": "https://volcano.si.edu/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "volcano.si.edu",
"url": "https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "volcano.si.edu",
"url": "https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2025",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "U.S. Geological Survey (USGS)",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
{
"name": "national or regional volcanic observatories",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
}
],
"arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
"proposer_model": "managed_whitelist",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}