Will the winner of the Makerfield by-election be determined? [ resolves — ]
polymarket: [B] single source·reporting consensus methodology ›
distribution · by outcome · marks: daily snapshot
polymarket 33 markets
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andy Burnham | — | 74.0% | $156K | $548K | B | 0x77954e…9d39 | ||
| Rebecca Shepherd | — | 1.5% | $183K | $2.91M | B | 0x85980a…3538 | ||
| John Skipworth | — | 0.8% | — | $6.5K | B | 0xd28b5c…3248 | ||
| Maria Deery | — | 0.2% | — | $6.5K | B | 0x55a68c…65ee | ||
| Simon Finkelstein | — | 0.1% | — | $6.8K | B | 0xabe82a…ee22 | ||
| James Thomas Bryer | — | 0.1% | — | $8.1K | B | 0x61b47b…e367 | ||
| Candidate C | — | 0.0% | — | — | B | 0x18eb70…29fa | ||
| Candidate E | — | 0.0% | — | — | B | 0xdf19a1…6b3e | ||
| Candidate G | — | 0.0% | — | — | B | 0xbfb406…112f | ||
| Candidate I | — | 0.0% | — | — | B | 0x8134ed…4527 | ||
| Candidate K | — | 0.0% | — | — | B | 0xd9e20c…706a | ||
| Candidate M | — | 0.0% | — | — | B | 0xb3f64b…cffb | ||
| Candidate O | — | 0.0% | — | — | B | 0xf0c102…3368 | ||
| Candidate Q | — | 0.0% | — | — | B | 0xe8999e…961a | ||
| Candidate S | — | 0.0% | — | — | B | 0x128cd0…7cca | ||
| Candidate U | — | 0.0% | — | — | B | 0xdf5aa0…1535 | ||
| Candidate W | — | 0.0% | — | — | B | 0x4e81d9…a1df | ||
| Candidate Y | — | 0.0% | — | — | B | 0x5030b1…e474 | ||
| Another candidate | — | 0.0% | — | — | B | 0x70ebd1…5f60 | ||
| Robert Kenyon | — | 0.0% | $332K | $702K | B | 0x3c169e…f6c2 | ||
| Candidate B | — | 0.0% | — | — | B | 0xea558e…f1a9 | ||
| Candidate D | — | 0.0% | — | — | B | 0x8e9bb7…7e07 | ||
| Candidate F | — | 0.0% | — | — | B | 0xa8f883…2876 | ||
| Candidate H | — | 0.0% | — | — | B | 0x7a8aa3…1396 | ||
| Candidate J | — | 0.0% | — | — | B | 0x9a59b2…a865 | ||
| Candidate L | — | 0.0% | — | — | B | 0xc07ee6…8833 | ||
| Candidate N | — | 0.0% | — | — | B | 0xe72e9f…e2bf | ||
| Candidate P | — | 0.0% | — | — | B | 0x024c63…52b6 | ||
| Candidate R | — | 0.0% | — | — | B | 0xa21dc4…d4fb | ||
| Candidate T | — | 0.0% | — | — | B | 0x1610e5…129a | ||
| Candidate V | — | 0.0% | — | — | B | 0x0ce792…6c67 | ||
| Candidate X | — | 0.0% | — | — | B | 0x439d25…3e15 | ||
| Candidate Z | — | 0.0% | — | — | B | 0xa0e81a…425d |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| polymarket | Whitelisted Proposers | not provided | not provided | Optimistic Oracle (UMA) | Other | — |
verbatim rules
polymarket
A by-election for the United Kingdom parliamentary constituency of Makerfield is expected to be held on June 18, 2026, following the announced resignation of incumbent Josh Simons.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the Makerfield parliamentary by-election in 2026.
If the election results are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official election results as published by Wigan Council (https://www.wigan.gov.uk/).
platform source field
polymarket.resolutionSource → ∅ none returned sources (2) · stated precedence rule
- wigan.gov.uk venue-listed
- Wigan Council (https://www.wigan.gov.uk/) from rules text · editorial
resolution history
| outcome | market | venue | resolved | final price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| closed | Will Candidate C win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? | polymarket | 2026-07-06 | — |
| closed | Will Candidate E win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? | polymarket | 2026-07-06 | — |
| closed | Will Candidate G win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? | polymarket | 2026-07-06 | — |
| closed | Will Candidate I win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? | polymarket | 2026-07-06 | — |
| closed | Will Candidate K win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? | polymarket | 2026-07-06 | — |
| closed | Will Candidate M win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? | polymarket | 2026-07-06 | — |
| closed | Will Candidate O win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? | polymarket | 2026-07-06 | — |
| closed | Will Candidate Q win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? | polymarket | 2026-07-06 | — |
| closed | Will Candidate S win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? | polymarket | 2026-07-06 | — |
| closed | Will Candidate U win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? | polymarket | 2026-07-06 | — |
| closed | Will Candidate W win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? | polymarket | 2026-07-06 | — |
| closed | Will Candidate Y win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? | polymarket | 2026-07-06 | — |
| closed | Will another candidate win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? | polymarket | 2026-07-06 | — |
| NO | Will Robert Kenyon win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? | polymarket | 2026-07-06 | 0% |
| closed | Will Candidate B win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? | polymarket | 2026-07-06 | — |
| closed | Will Candidate D win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? | polymarket | 2026-07-06 | — |
| closed | Will Candidate F win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? | polymarket | 2026-07-06 | — |
| closed | Will Candidate H win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? | polymarket | 2026-07-06 | — |
| closed | Will Candidate J win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? | polymarket | 2026-07-06 | — |
| closed | Will Candidate L win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? | polymarket | 2026-07-06 | — |
| closed | Will Candidate N win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? | polymarket | 2026-07-06 | — |
| closed | Will Candidate P win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? | polymarket | 2026-07-06 | — |
| closed | Will Candidate R win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? | polymarket | 2026-07-06 | — |
| closed | Will Candidate T win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? | polymarket | 2026-07-06 | — |
| closed | Will Candidate V win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? | polymarket | 2026-07-06 | — |
| closed | Will Candidate X win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? | polymarket | 2026-07-06 | — |
| closed | Will Candidate Z win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? | polymarket | 2026-07-06 | — |
Derived from the platform price + resolution-date snapshot (27 resolved markets). PENDING upgrades to a final outcome on the next refresh.
recent wire items
- Kenyon underdog positioning draws capital in Makerfield 27% · $332K 24h
- Polymarket at 27%, market assigns meaningful but below-even odds to a Kenyon by-election win.
- 24h volume $332K is 47% of all-time; fresh capital entering as by-election approaches resolution.
- Spike suggests new polling, canvassing data, or tactical voting narrative is circulating pre-vote.
- Resolution on 2026 Makerfield by-election result; 27% implies a contested but not favored race.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/makerfield-by-election-winner/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/makerfield-by-election-winner |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("makerfield-by-election-winner") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-07-06. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-LY608MSMM2",
"slug": "makerfield-by-election-winner",
"question": "Will the winner of the Makerfield by-election be determined?",
"category": "politics",
"tags": [
"politics",
"elections",
"uk-politics",
"by-election",
"2026",
"burnham"
],
"venues_covered": [
"polymarket"
],
"market_count": 33,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 4190025,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "B",
"rcg_score": 68,
"rcg_caps": [],
"resolution_source": null,
"resolution_source_url": "https://www.wigan.gov.uk/",
"source_status": "platform_named",
"source_of_record": "Wigan Council",
"resolution_source_list": [
{
"name": "wigan.gov.uk",
"url": "https://www.wigan.gov.uk/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "Wigan Council (https://www.wigan.gov.uk/)",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
}
],
"arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
"proposer_model": "managed_whitelist",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}