CM ClearMarket
SYSTEM: LIVE · PRICES: HOURLY REFRESH · COVERAGE: ~2,450 EVENTS / ~20,000 MARKETS · KALSHI + POLYMARKET

Will Masoud Pezeshkian be out of office by the end of 2026? [ resolves 2026-04 – 2026-12 ]

Masoud Pezeshkian out by December 31?

polymarket: [C] multiple sources, no tie-break·reporting consensus methodology ›
distribution · by resolution date · marks: daily snapshot
polymarket 4 markets
market resolves P(YES) vol (24h) vol (cum) RCG venue id
March 31 2026-04-01 0.1%
$289K
C 0xd01e1b…37b4
April 30 2026-05-01 0.4%
$27K
C 0x8fb693…9881
June 30 2026-06-30 0.0%
$5.2K $269K
C 0x3ed92a…f055
December 31 2026-12-31 26.0%
$83 $187K
C 0x3e80f6…e5e3
resolution architecture
venue proposer source citation arbitration class analyst notes
polymarket Whitelisted Proposers uncommitted not provided Optimistic Oracle (UMA) Other
verbatim rules
polymarket 4 markets · share this text
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Masoud Pezeshkian ceases to be President of Iran for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Masoud Pezeshkian's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. If the specified individual is detained, effectively removed from the specified position, or otherwise permanently prevented from fulfilling the duties of the specified position within this market’s timeframe, it will qualify for a “Yes” resolution. The resolution source for this market will be official information from Masoud Pezeshkian and the government of Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
platform source field polymarket.resolutionSource → ∅ no committed source — see rules text above
sources (2)
  • official information from Masoud Pezeshkian and the government of Iran from rules text · editorial
  • a consensus of credible reporting from rules text · editorial
resolution history
outcome market venue resolved final price
NO Masoud Pezeshkian out by June 30? polymarket 2026-06-30 0%
closed Masoud Pezeshkian out by April 30? polymarket 2026-05-01
closed Masoud Pezeshkian out by March 31? polymarket 2026-04-01
Derived from the platform price + resolution-date snapshot (3 resolved markets). PENDING upgrades to a final outcome on the next refresh.
recent wire items
monitoring status: active no active wire

No CM Signal wire has been published for this event yet.

CM Signal’s news-cycle scan surfaces the day’s top stories alongside the prediction markets pricing them. When a story references this event, its wire is published here and links back to this page.

programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload

One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.

HTMLbrowsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset)https://clearmarket.fyi/events/masoud-pezeshkian-out-by/
JSONREST API for developershttps://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/masoud-pezeshkian-out-by
MCPagentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue)clearmarket.get_event("masoud-pezeshkian-out-by")
AGENTAI crawler discovery index/llms.txt

Snapshot 2026-07-06. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.

raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint
{
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-9HV2LCD070",
  "slug": "masoud-pezeshkian-out-by",
  "question": "Will Masoud Pezeshkian be out of office by the end of 2026?",
  "category": "geopolitics",
  "tags": [
    "geopolitics",
    "politics",
    "iran",
    "leadership-change",
    "2026"
  ],
  "venues_covered": [
    "polymarket"
  ],
  "market_count": 4,
  "cumulative_volume_usd": 772373,
  "resolution_clarity_grade": "C",
  "rcg_score": 24,
  "rcg_caps": [
    "multi_source_no_conflict_rule",
    "adversarial_ground_truth",
    "commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
  ],
  "resolution_source": null,
  "resolution_source_url": null,
  "source_status": "no_committed_source",
  "source_of_record": null,
  "resolution_source_list": [
    {
      "name": "official information from Masoud Pezeshkian and the government of Iran",
      "url": null,
      "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
    },
    {
      "name": "a consensus of credible reporting",
      "url": null,
      "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
    }
  ],
  "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
  "proposer_model": "managed_whitelist",
  "field_provenance": {
    "question": {
      "source": "clearmarket_editorial"
    },
    "tags": {
      "source": "clearmarket_editorial",
      "ai_drafted": true
    },
    "resolution_clarity_grade": {
      "source": "derived",
      "method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
    },
    "venues_covered": {
      "source": "derived"
    }
  }
}
snapshot 2026-07-06T00:30:45.836226+00:00 schema v0.2.0-universe all events →