Will a specific candidate win the Massachusetts Senate election? [ resolves — ]
polymarket: [C] multiple sources, no tie-break·reporting consensus methodology ›
distribution · by outcome · marks: daily snapshot
polymarket 13 markets
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| The Democrats | — | 96.5% | — | $19K | C | 0x6f56cd…1632 | ||
| The Republicans | — | 4.7% | — | $5.4K | C | 0xc07048…2766 | ||
| Person A | — | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x95a201…e67d | ||
| Person B | — | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0xd5d50d…66f8 | ||
| Person C | — | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x4ed5c8…8575 | ||
| Person D | — | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x757c7c…10c8 | ||
| Person E | — | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x0f2dc7…168f | ||
| Person F | — | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x1c58b4…43e3 | ||
| Person G | — | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0xe40d30…4da9 | ||
| Person H | — | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x9570d7…0875 | ||
| Person I | — | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x1d0fb6…7aae | ||
| Person J | — | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0xc4e8db…09c0 | ||
| A candidate not listed above | — | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x39e4db…09dc |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| polymarket | Whitelisted Proposers | not provided | not provided | Optimistic Oracle (UMA) | Other | — |
verbatim rules
polymarket
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Massachusetts U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
platform source field
polymarket.resolutionSource → ∅ none returned sources (3) · quorum — multiple sources must agree
Associated Press from rules text Fox News from rules text NBC from rules text
recent wire items
- Democrats' Massachusetts Senate hold trades at near-certainty 96% · $12K 24h
- Polymarket prices a Democratic Massachusetts Senate win at 96%, effectively a resolved outcome.
- 24h volume of $12.4K is 36% of all-time, with fresh money arriving into a deeply one-sided market.
- Volume at near-unanimous odds may reflect a Republican candidate withdrawal or primary result.
- Resolves on the November 2026 Massachusetts Senate general election.
- Democrats hold Massachusetts Senate race at 95% on record volume 95% · $10K 24h
- Polymarket prices Democrats winning the Massachusetts Senate race in 2026 at 95%, near-certain consensus on a deep-blue seat.
- 54% of all-time volume cleared in a single day, the highest all-time share ratio in this batch by far.
- A 54%-of-all-time spike into a 95% contract suggests either a new entrant taking the other side or an arbitrage/liquidity play.
- Resolves on the 2026 Massachusetts Senate general election result.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/massachusetts-senate-election-winner/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/massachusetts-senate-election-winner |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("massachusetts-senate-election-winner") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-08-04. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-D0T3BF05P9",
"slug": "massachusetts-senate-election-winner",
"question": "Will a specific candidate win the Massachusetts Senate election?",
"category": "politics",
"tags": [
"politics",
"elections",
"massachusetts",
"us-senate",
"2026-election",
"partisan-outcome"
],
"venues_covered": [
"polymarket"
],
"market_count": 13,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 24224,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "C",
"rcg_score": 57,
"rcg_caps": [
"multi_source_no_conflict_rule"
],
"resolution_source": null,
"resolution_source_url": null,
"source_status": "platform_named",
"source_of_record": "Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC",
"resolution_source_list": [
{
"name": "Associated Press",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
{
"name": "Fox News",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
{
"name": "NBC",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
}
],
"arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
"proposer_model": "managed_whitelist",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}