Will the MD-01 House seat be won by a Democrat or Republican in the 2026 election? [ resolves 2026-11-03 (91D) ]
polymarket: [A] single source·objective outcome methodology ›
distribution · by outcome · marks: daily snapshot
polymarket 8 markets
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| The Republican Party | 2026-11-03 | 93.0% | — | $16K | A | 0xf4ad90…4f27 | ||
| The Democratic Party | 2026-11-03 | 15.0% | — | $8.8K | A | 0xac6a24…e617 | ||
| Another party | 2026-11-03 | 0.0% | — | — | A | 0x7aa546…cafc | ||
| Will A win the MD-01 House seat | 2026-11-03 | 0.0% | — | — | A | 0xdf1627…0218 | ||
| Will B win the MD-01 House seat | 2026-11-03 | 0.0% | — | — | A | 0x7631b5…bf05 | ||
| Will C win the MD-01 House seat | 2026-11-03 | 0.0% | — | — | A | 0xf06c5e…d130 | ||
| Will D win the MD-01 House seat | 2026-11-03 | 0.0% | — | — | A | 0xa3db6a…c7a6 | ||
| Will E win the MD-01 House seat | 2026-11-03 | 0.0% | — | — | A | 0x029e3d…0ba2 |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| polymarket | Whitelisted Proposers | not provided | not provided | Optimistic Oracle (UMA) | Other | — |
verbatim rules
polymarket
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MD-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
platform source field
polymarket.resolutionSource → ∅ none returned sources (2) · stated precedence rule
recent wire items
- Heavy trading backs the GOP hold in Maryland's 1st District 92% · $12K 24h
- Polymarket prices Republicans winning MD-01 at 92%, a near-lock in a historically red district.
- 24h volume of $12.3K is 37% of all-time, showing renewed positioning on this race.
- Surge may reflect a candidate announcement, primary result, or updated Cook/Sabato rating.
- Resolves on November 2026 general election results.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/md-01-house-election-winner/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/md-01-house-election-winner |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("md-01-house-election-winner") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-08-04. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-XY0NDB9QD2",
"slug": "md-01-house-election-winner",
"question": "Will the MD-01 House seat be won by a Democrat or Republican in the 2026 election?",
"category": "politics",
"tags": [
"politics",
"elections",
"us-house",
"maryland",
"2026",
"congressional-race"
],
"venues_covered": [
"polymarket"
],
"market_count": 8,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 24636,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "A",
"rcg_score": 84,
"rcg_caps": [],
"resolution_source": null,
"resolution_source_url": "https://www.fec.gov/",
"source_status": "platform_named",
"source_of_record": "Federal Election Commission",
"resolution_source_list": [
{
"name": "fec.gov",
"url": "https://www.fec.gov/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "Federal Election Commission",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
}
],
"arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
"proposer_model": "managed_whitelist",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}