Will the SPD win the most seats in the Mecklenburg-Vorpommern state parliament election? [ resolved 2026-09-20 ]
polymarket: [A] single source·objective outcome methodology ›
distribution · by outcome · marks: daily snapshot
polymarket 24 markets
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AfD | 2026-09-20 | 100.0% | $5 | $70K | A | 0x6c9bd1…cf8c | ||
| CDU | 2026-09-20 | 0.0% | — | $44K | A | 0x92c63b…f079 | ||
| Grüne | 2026-09-20 | 0.0% | — | $71K | A | 0x012485…825e | ||
| SPD | 2026-09-20 | 0.0% | $29 | $90K | A | 0x7742a0…1829 | ||
| FDP | 2026-09-20 | 0.0% | — | $76K | A | 0x024991…30d9 | ||
| Linke | 2026-09-20 | 0.0% | — | $28K | A | 0xd4bf07…0d58 | ||
| FW | 2026-09-20 | 0.0% | — | $37K | A | 0x6dd768…47d8 | ||
| BSW | 2026-09-20 | 0.0% | — | $21K | A | 0xca817f…35a9 | ||
| Party A | 2026-09-20 | 0.0% | — | — | A | 0x141e24…6d52 | ||
| Party B | 2026-09-20 | 0.0% | — | — | A | 0x8485a2…b6b6 | ||
| Party C | 2026-09-20 | 0.0% | — | — | A | 0x7b3366…51e5 | ||
| Party D | 2026-09-20 | 0.0% | — | — | A | 0x17e4b3…830c | ||
| Party E | 2026-09-20 | 0.0% | — | — | A | 0xa0c23c…af6f | ||
| Party F | 2026-09-20 | 0.0% | — | — | A | 0x872c36…d03e | ||
| Party G | 2026-09-20 | 0.0% | — | — | A | 0xdda1b1…ea74 | ||
| Party H | 2026-09-20 | 0.0% | — | — | A | 0x612359…9272 | ||
| Party I | 2026-09-20 | 0.0% | — | — | A | 0x9dfb13…b202 | ||
| Party J | 2026-09-20 | 0.0% | — | — | A | 0x4094a6…8da3 | ||
| Party K | 2026-09-20 | 0.0% | — | — | A | 0xaf9646…8978 | ||
| Party L | 2026-09-20 | 0.0% | — | — | A | 0x73a5e5…95dd | ||
| Party M | 2026-09-20 | 0.0% | — | — | A | 0x3ff904…2c2a | ||
| Party N | 2026-09-20 | 0.0% | — | — | A | 0x70b20d…c748 | ||
| Party O | 2026-09-20 | 0.0% | — | — | A | 0x43f8df…6381 | ||
| Another party | 2026-09-20 | 0.0% | — | — | A | 0xd16d87…7512 |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| polymarket | Whitelisted Proposers | not provided | link | Optimistic Oracle (UMA) | Other | — |
verbatim rules
polymarket
Parliamentary elections to elect the Landtag of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern are scheduled to take place on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the state parliament of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern (Landtag) as a result of this election.
If voting in the Mecklenburg-Vorpommern election for the Landtag does not occur by January 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published on the official Mecklenburg-Vorpommern elections page of the Landesamt für innere Verwaltung (www.laiv-mv.de/Wahlen/Landtagswahlen/2026/).
platform source field
polymarket.description → www.laiv-mv.de/Wahlen/Landtagswahlen/2026/ sources (3) · stated precedence rule
laiv-mv.de venue-listed Landesamt für innere Verwaltung committed source www.laiv-mv.de/Wahlen/Landtagswahlen/2026/ from rules text
resolution history
| outcome | market | venue | resolved | final price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| YES | Will AfD win the most seats in the 2026 Mecklenburg-Vorpommern parliamentary elections? | polymarket | 2026-09-21 | 100% |
| NO | Will SPD win the most seats in the 2026 Mecklenburg-Vorpommern parliamentary elections? | polymarket | 2026-09-21 | 0% |
| NO | Will Grüne win the most seats in the 2026 Mecklenburg-Vorpommern parliamentary elections? | polymarket | 2026-09-21 | 0% |
| NO | Will FDP win the most seats in the 2026 Mecklenburg-Vorpommern parliamentary elections? | polymarket | 2026-09-21 | 0% |
| NO | Will FW win the most seats in the 2026 Mecklenburg-Vorpommern parliamentary elections? | polymarket | 2026-09-21 | 0% |
| NO | Will BSW win the most seats in the 2026 Mecklenburg-Vorpommern parliamentary elections? | polymarket | 2026-09-21 | 0% |
| NO | Will CDU win the most seats in the 2026 Mecklenburg-Vorpommern parliamentary elections? | polymarket | 2026-09-21 | 0% |
| NO | Will Linke win the most seats in the 2026 Mecklenburg-Vorpommern parliamentary elections? | polymarket | 2026-09-21 | 0% |
Resolution dates are the venue's settlement timestamps (8 resolved markets). Rows shown as "by [date]" carry the contract deadline: the venue no longer exposes a settlement time for them. PENDING upgrades to a final outcome on the next refresh.
recent wire items
- SPD plurality odds hold at 50% through a volume surge 50% · $186K 24h
- 50% price is the market's version of a coin-flip, SPD and AfD are priced as dead-level rivals.
- 32% of all-time volume in 24 hours underscores how rapidly conviction is being tested pre-vote.
- Paired with Spike 0, the two contracts together imply no dominant favorite heading into election day.
- Resolves on certified seat totals from the Mecklenburg-Vorpommern state parliament.
- FW winning most Mecklenburg-Vorpommern seats priced at zero 0% · $26K 24h
- 0% price means the market treats a FW plurality in Mecklenburg-Vorpommern as essentially impossible.
- Today's $26K is 29% of all-time handle, notable activity for a contract already pinned at the floor.
- Fresh volume at zero likely reflects arbitrage cleanup or hedgers confirming the outcome post-polling.
- Resolves on official 2026 Mecklenburg-Vorpommern state election seat count.
- FW winning Mecklenburg-Vorpommern seats priced out entirely 0% · $13K 24h
- Polymarket prices FW at 0%, the market has fully priced out any chance of FW leading the 2026 Mecklenburg-Vorpommern parliament.
- 24h volume of $13K is 26% of all-time, a meaningful fresh-trading day for a German state election contract.
- FW is a minor regional force; polling and structural dynamics in MV make AfD or SPD the dominant contenders.
- Resolves on seat totals from the 2026 Mecklenburg-Vorpommern parliamentary election.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/mecklenburg-vorpommern-parliamentary-election-winner/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/mecklenburg-vorpommern-parliamentary-election-winner |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("mecklenburg-vorpommern-parliamentary-election-winner") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-08-04. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-N815VR9GY5",
"slug": "mecklenburg-vorpommern-parliamentary-election-winner",
"question": "Will the SPD win the most seats in the Mecklenburg-Vorpommern state parliament election?",
"category": "politics",
"tags": [
"elections",
"politics",
"german-politics",
"mecklenburg-vorpommern",
"2026",
"parliamentary-elections"
],
"venues_covered": [
"polymarket"
],
"market_count": 24,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 437475,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "A",
"rcg_score": 93,
"rcg_caps": [],
"resolution_source": null,
"resolution_source_url": "www.laiv-mv.de/Wahlen/Landtagswahlen/2026/",
"source_status": "platform_named",
"source_of_record": "Landesamt für innere Verwaltung",
"resolution_source_list": [
{
"name": "laiv-mv.de",
"url": "www.laiv-mv.de/Wahlen/Landtagswahlen/2026/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "Landesamt für innere Verwaltung",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
{
"name": "www.laiv-mv.de/Wahlen/Landtagswahlen/2026/",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
}
],
"arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
"proposer_model": "managed_whitelist",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}