Will Mexico's annual inflation in 2026 be below 4%? [ resolves 2027-01-08 (169D) ]
polymarket: [A] single source·objective outcome methodology ›
distribution · by strike · marks: daily snapshot
polymarket 8 markets
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≥ 2.5% | 2027-01-08 | 2.6% | — | $4.5K | A | 0xb5031e…e899 | ||
| ≥ 2.5% | 2027-01-08 | 0.3% | — | $778 | A | 0x13d6c5…1f17 | ||
| ≥ 3% | 2027-01-08 | 8.1% | — | $27K | A | 0x039aec…5edb | ||
| ≥ 3.5% | 2027-01-08 | 7.1% | — | $1.2K | A | 0x96e9ee…8cd5 | ||
| ≥ 4% | 2027-01-08 | 33.0% | — | $1.3K | A | 0x92db92…0a04 | ||
| ≥ 4.5% | 2027-01-08 | 14.0% | — | $3.9K | A | 0x36fff2…4683 | ||
| ≥ 5% | 2027-01-08 | 8.5% | — | $1.8K | A | 0x90c039…f824 | ||
| ≥ 5.5% | 2027-01-08 | 10.0% | — | $5.4K | A | 0xcefab2…6a87 |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| polymarket | Whitelisted Proposers | not provided | link | Optimistic Oracle (UMA) | Other | — |
verbatim rules
polymarket
This is a market about the variation of consumer prices in Mexico over the 12-month period ending December 2026, as reported by the Mexican National Institute of Statistics and Geography (INEGI).
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in Mexico’s Consumer Price Index over the 12-month period ending December 2026 (annual inflation for the month of December 2026), according to the monthly INEGI National Consumer Price Index (INPC) report for the specified month.
The resolution source for this market will be the INEGI INPC report released for December 2026, expected to be released in January 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
The relevant report will be made available upon release at: https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/app/saladeprensa/
Note: This market’s resolution source reports percentage change in the Mexican Consumer Price Index to two decimal points (e.g. 2.01%). Thus this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. For the full release schedule, see: https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/app/saladeprensa/calendario
platform source field
polymarket.description → https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/app/saladeprensa/ sources (5) · single authority
- en.www.inegi.org.mx venue-listed
- en.www.inegi.org.mx venue-listed
- Mexican National Institute of Statistics and Geography (INEGI) source of record from rules text · editorial
- INEGI National Consumer Price Index (INPC) report from rules text · editorial
- INEGI INPC report from rules text · editorial
recent wire items
monitoring status: active no active wire
No CM Signal wire has been published for this event yet.
CM Signal’s news-cycle scan surfaces the day’s top stories alongside the prediction markets pricing them. When a story references this event, its wire is published here and links back to this page.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/mexico-annual-inflation-2026/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/mexico-annual-inflation-2026 |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("mexico-annual-inflation-2026") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-07-23. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-S0Q0L8S635",
"slug": "mexico-annual-inflation-2026",
"question": "Will Mexico's annual inflation in 2026 be below 4%?",
"category": "economics",
"tags": [
"economics",
"mexico-economy",
"inflation-rate",
"price-index",
"monetary-policy",
"2027-resolution"
],
"venues_covered": [
"polymarket"
],
"market_count": 8,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 45518,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "A",
"rcg_score": 91,
"rcg_caps": [],
"resolution_source": null,
"resolution_source_url": "https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/app/saladeprensa/",
"source_status": "platform_named",
"source_of_record": "Mexican National Institute of Statistics and Geography (INEGI)",
"resolution_source_list": [
{
"name": "en.www.inegi.org.mx",
"url": "https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/app/saladeprensa/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "en.www.inegi.org.mx",
"url": "https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/app/saladeprensa/calendario",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "Mexican National Institute of Statistics and Geography (INEGI)",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
{
"name": "INEGI National Consumer Price Index (INPC) report",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
{
"name": "INEGI INPC report",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
}
],
"arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
"proposer_model": "managed_whitelist",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}