Will the second-place party in the Mexico legislative election receive less than 25% of the vote? [ resolves 2027-06-06 (318D) ]
polymarket: [B] single source·reporting consensus methodology ›
distribution · by outcome · marks: daily snapshot
polymarket 33 markets
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| The National Action Party (PAN) | 2027-06-06 | 53.0% | $94 | $14K | B | 0x02a288…f0a8 | ||
| The Institutional Revolutionary Party (PRI) | 2027-06-06 | 24.5% | $160 | $5.7K | B | 0xf73dbc…81bf | ||
| The Ecologist Green Party of Mexico (PVEM) | 2027-06-06 | 4.0% | $27 | $6.9K | B | 0x2bf1e6…8fc7 | ||
| The National Regeneration Movement (Morena) | 2027-06-06 | 1.9% | $12 | $2.3K | B | 0xa3f568…851b | ||
| The Labor Party (PT) | 2027-06-06 | 0.5% | $5 | $4.7K | B | 0xf11b55…2501 | ||
| Citizens’ Movement (MC) | 2027-06-06 | 0.3% | $5 | $1.2K | B | 0xf56f06…8674 | ||
| Party A | 2027-06-06 | 0.0% | — | — | B | 0xddb7c2…ad1e | ||
| Party B | 2027-06-06 | 0.0% | — | — | B | 0x5c93f4…3bd6 | ||
| Party C | 2027-06-06 | 0.0% | — | — | B | 0x7c7e9c…bb0f | ||
| Party D | 2027-06-06 | 0.0% | — | — | B | 0x1a86ac…6ee4 | ||
| Party E | 2027-06-06 | 0.0% | — | — | B | 0xd5e151…9995 | ||
| Party F | 2027-06-06 | 0.0% | — | — | B | 0xdd2e90…9941 | ||
| Party G | 2027-06-06 | 0.0% | — | — | B | 0x774c25…c22a | ||
| Party H | 2027-06-06 | 0.0% | — | — | B | 0x312443…ebca | ||
| Party I | 2027-06-06 | 0.0% | — | — | B | 0x721a6f…cd79 | ||
| Party J | 2027-06-06 | 0.0% | — | — | B | 0x983fa1…b6fd | ||
| Party K | 2027-06-06 | 0.0% | — | — | B | 0xe384a8…8eab | ||
| Party L | 2027-06-06 | 0.0% | — | — | B | 0x9a8524…8014 | ||
| Party M | 2027-06-06 | 0.0% | — | — | B | 0x6c631f…1ea9 | ||
| Party N | 2027-06-06 | 0.0% | — | — | B | 0x214ed3…38bc | ||
| Party O | 2027-06-06 | 0.0% | — | — | B | 0xcb925d…f7d5 | ||
| Party P | 2027-06-06 | 0.0% | — | — | B | 0x4fe1cf…bf8b | ||
| Party Q | 2027-06-06 | 0.0% | — | — | B | 0xb78d18…baf0 | ||
| Party R | 2027-06-06 | 0.0% | — | — | B | 0xe233ac…846e | ||
| Party S | 2027-06-06 | 0.0% | — | — | B | 0xd74ec1…f26f | ||
| Party T | 2027-06-06 | 0.0% | — | — | B | 0xae347b…8d40 | ||
| Party U | 2027-06-06 | 0.0% | — | — | B | 0x6f9357…41d5 | ||
| Party V | 2027-06-06 | 0.0% | — | — | B | 0x3894f7…db5d | ||
| Party W | 2027-06-06 | 0.0% | — | — | B | 0x504579…161e | ||
| Party X | 2027-06-06 | 0.0% | — | — | B | 0x10b372…c934 | ||
| Party Y | 2027-06-06 | 0.0% | — | — | B | 0x460c9b…c854 | ||
| Party Z | 2027-06-06 | 0.0% | — | — | B | 0x314fc0…a946 | ||
| Another party | 2027-06-06 | 0.0% | — | — | B | 0x097112…dd1b |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| polymarket | Whitelisted Proposers | not provided | not provided | Optimistic Oracle (UMA) | Other | — |
verbatim rules
polymarket
A legislative election is scheduled to be held in Mexico on June 6, 2027.
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the second greatest number of seats in the Mexican Chamber of Deputies (Cámara de Diputados) as a result of this election.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by March 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The named parties or coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more parties are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid votes received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If parties remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed party abbreviations. This market will resolve to the party that occupies the second finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the Mexican Chamber of Deputies.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by the Mexican Government, specifically the National Electoral Institute (https://ine.mx/).
platform source field
polymarket.resolutionSource → ∅ none returned sources (2) · stated precedence rule
- ine.mx venue-listed
- National Electoral Institute (https://ine.mx/) source of record from rules text · editorial
recent wire items
monitoring status: active no active wire
No CM Signal wire has been published for this event yet.
CM Signal’s news-cycle scan surfaces the day’s top stories alongside the prediction markets pricing them. When a story references this event, its wire is published here and links back to this page.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/mexico-legislative-election-2nd-place/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/mexico-legislative-election-2nd-place |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("mexico-legislative-election-2nd-place") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-07-23. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-RN70W81CS1",
"slug": "mexico-legislative-election-2nd-place",
"question": "Will the second-place party in the Mexico legislative election receive less than 25% of the vote?",
"category": "politics",
"tags": [
"politics",
"elections",
"mexico",
"legislative",
"2027",
"seat-distribution"
],
"venues_covered": [
"polymarket"
],
"market_count": 33,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 35101,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "B",
"rcg_score": 66,
"rcg_caps": [],
"resolution_source": null,
"resolution_source_url": "https://ine.mx/",
"source_status": "platform_named",
"source_of_record": "National Electoral Institute (https://ine.mx/)",
"resolution_source_list": [
{
"name": "ine.mx",
"url": "https://ine.mx/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "National Electoral Institute (https://ine.mx/)",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
}
],
"arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
"proposer_model": "managed_whitelist",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}