Will a Democrat win the Michigan's 1st congressional district primary election? [ resolved 2026-08-04 ]
polymarket: [C] multiple sources, no tie-break·reporting consensus methodology ›
distribution · by outcome · marks: daily snapshot
polymarket 7 markets
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Callie Barr | 2026-08-04 | 100.0% | $889 | $7.6K | C | 0x8beae7…5c94 | ||
| Kyle Blomquist | 2026-08-04 | 0.0% | $760 | $4.7K | C | 0x72164d…d772 | ||
| Wayne Stiles | 2026-08-04 | 0.0% | — | $915 | C | 0x2e9e57…2c1c | ||
| Candidate A | 2026-08-04 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0xee7360…c860 | ||
| Candidate B | 2026-08-04 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0xf3af4c…2a3f | ||
| Candidate C | 2026-08-04 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x8c894a…ae41 | ||
| Another candidate | 2026-08-04 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x14af5b…7ddd |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| polymarket | Whitelisted Proposers | not provided | not provided | Optimistic Oracle (UMA) | Other | — |
verbatim rules
polymarket
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the MI-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on August 4, 2026.
If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/.
Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
platform source field
polymarket.resolutionSource → ∅ none returned sources (3) · single authority
democrats.org committed source https://democrats.org/ from rules text official Democrat sources from rules text
resolution history
| outcome | market | venue | resolved | final price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| YES | Will Callie Barr be the MI-01 Democratic nominee? | polymarket | 2026-08-05 | 100% |
| NO | Will Kyle Blomquist be the MI-01 Democratic nominee? | polymarket | 2026-08-05 | 0% |
| NO | Will Wayne Stiles be the MI-01 Democratic nominee? | polymarket | 2026-08-05 | 0% |
Resolution dates are the venue's settlement timestamps (3 resolved markets). Rows shown as "by [date]" carry the contract deadline: the venue no longer exposes a settlement time for them. PENDING upgrades to a final outcome on the next refresh.
recent wire items
monitoring status: active no active wire
No CM Signal wire has been published for this event yet.
CM Signal’s news-cycle scan surfaces the day’s top stories alongside the prediction markets pricing them. When a story references this event, its wire is published here and links back to this page.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/mi-01-democratic-primary-winner-20260702201408652/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/mi-01-democratic-primary-winner-20260702201408652 |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("mi-01-democratic-primary-winner-20260702201408652") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-08-04. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-PQVQNKM2P0",
"slug": "mi-01-democratic-primary-winner-20260702201408652",
"question": "Will a Democrat win the Michigan's 1st congressional district primary election?",
"category": "politics",
"tags": [
"politics",
"elections",
"michigan",
"democratic-primary",
"2026",
"us-congress"
],
"venues_covered": [
"polymarket"
],
"market_count": 7,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 13207,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "C",
"rcg_score": 60,
"rcg_caps": [
"multi_source_no_conflict_rule"
],
"resolution_source": null,
"resolution_source_url": "https://democrats.org/",
"source_status": "platform_named",
"source_of_record": "democrats.org",
"resolution_source_list": [
{
"name": "democrats.org",
"url": "https://democrats.org/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "https://democrats.org/",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
{
"name": "official Democrat sources",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
}
],
"arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
"proposer_model": "managed_whitelist",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}