Will the Democratic primary winner be determined for Michigan's 13th congressional district by August 4, 2026? [ resolved 2026-08-04 ]

polymarket: [C] multiple sources, no tie-break·reporting consensus methodology ›

distribution · by outcome · marks: daily snapshot

polymarket 32 markets

market	resolves	P(YES)	vol (24h)	vol (cum)	RCG	venue id
Donavan McKinney	2026-08-04	100.0%	$1.9K	$47K	C	`0x2cfbd8…17f3`
Shri Thanedar	2026-08-04	0.0%	$108	$20K	C	`0x399b69…20b9`
Shelby Campbell	2026-08-04	0.0%	—	$1.3K	C	`0x7ab50d…f8cf`
Anthony Carbonaro	2026-08-04	0.0%	—	$1.3K	C	`0xfb3b8e…956f`
Nazmul Hassan	2026-08-04	0.0%	—	$1.3K	C	`0xe03235…8420`
Another person	2026-08-04	0.0%	—	—	C	`0x35f5ca…0347`
Person A	2026-08-04	0.0%	—	—	C	`0x2b2ceb…08fc`
Person B	2026-08-04	0.0%	—	—	C	`0xde3ec8…abf1`
Person C	2026-08-04	0.0%	—	—	C	`0x7dbabb…4b1a`
Person D	2026-08-04	0.0%	—	—	C	`0xa7dbb2…135f`
Person E	2026-08-04	0.0%	—	—	C	`0x956acd…fa61`
Person F	2026-08-04	0.0%	—	—	C	`0xa11285…9832`
Person G	2026-08-04	0.0%	—	—	C	`0x94cbb7…5668`
Person H	2026-08-04	0.0%	—	—	C	`0x24bdd8…9925`
Person I	2026-08-04	0.0%	—	—	C	`0xdb7f06…eb38`
Person J	2026-08-04	0.0%	—	—	C	`0xf8d28d…8ca4`
Person K	2026-08-04	0.0%	—	—	C	`0x23a032…e916`
Person L	2026-08-04	0.0%	—	—	C	`0x1819c2…04fe`
Person M	2026-08-04	0.0%	—	—	C	`0x626567…8408`
Person N	2026-08-04	0.0%	—	—	C	`0x0732ed…bbd0`
Person O	2026-08-04	0.0%	—	—	C	`0x7df55b…e67b`
Person P	2026-08-04	0.0%	—	—	C	`0x127686…a5bc`
Person Q	2026-08-04	0.0%	—	—	C	`0xabf422…398f`
Person R	2026-08-04	0.0%	—	—	C	`0x69c3a0…bb61`
Person S	2026-08-04	0.0%	—	—	C	`0x6a7dbb…9bab`
Person T	2026-08-04	0.0%	—	—	C	`0x9be6dd…e11d`
Person U	2026-08-04	0.0%	—	—	C	`0xed5d76…73eb`
Person V	2026-08-04	0.0%	—	—	C	`0x0cf4bc…08c8`
Person W	2026-08-04	0.0%	—	—	C	`0x6f5c3f…c2a2`
Person X	2026-08-04	0.0%	—	—	C	`0x8b19b4…9617`
Person Y	2026-08-04	0.0%	—	—	C	`0x911c6b…453d`
Person Z	2026-08-04	0.0%	—	—	C	`0x78f962…13aa`

resolution architecture

venue	proposer	source	citation	arbitration	class	analyst notes
polymarket	`Whitelisted Proposers`	not provided	not provided	`Optimistic Oracle (UMA)`	`Other`	—

verbatim rules

polymarket 32 markets · share this text

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the MI-13 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on August 4, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.

platform source field polymarket.resolutionSource → ∅ none returned

sources (3) · single authority

democrats.org committed source https://democrats.org/ from rules text official Democrat sources from rules text

resolution history

outcome	market	venue	resolved	final price
NO	Will Nazmul Hassan be the Democratic Nominee for MI-13?	polymarket	`2026-08-05`	`0%`
NO	Will Anthony Carbonaro be the Democratic Nominee for MI-13?	polymarket	`2026-08-05`	`0%`
NO	Will Shelby Campbell be the Democratic Nominee for MI-13?	polymarket	`2026-08-05`	`0%`
NO	Will Shri Thanedar be the Democratic Nominee for MI-13?	polymarket	`2026-08-05`	`0%`
YES	Will Donavan McKinney be the Democratic Nominee for MI-13?	polymarket	`2026-08-05`	`100%`

Resolution dates are the venue's settlement timestamps (5 resolved markets). Rows shown as "by [date]" carry the contract deadline: the venue no longer exposes a settlement time for them. PENDING upgrades to a final outcome on the next refresh.

recent wire items

2026-08-04T10:33:57+00:00 volume-spike
Thanedar MI-13 nomination bid trades as a long shot 13% · $117K 24h
- At 13%, Polymarket sees Thanedar as a heavy underdog in the MI-13 Democratic primary.
- 24h volume of $117K equals 40% of all-time handle, a decisive single-session repositioning.
- Capital flooding in alongside the McKinney contract (87%) signals the field is near-settled against Thanedar.
- Resolves on the MI-13 Democratic primary result.
2026-08-04T10:33:57+00:00 volume-spike
Buyers back McKinney as the MI-13 Democratic pick at 87% 87% · $110K 24h
- At 87%, Polymarket treats McKinney as the strong frontrunner for the MI-13 Democratic nomination.
- 24h volume of $110K is 32% of all-time, substantial single-session conviction behind the leading position.
- Simultaneous volume on Thanedar (13%) confirms the field is collapsing around McKinney as primary day nears.
- Resolves on the certified MI-13 Democratic primary nominee.
2026-08-02T09:53:38+00:00 volume-spike
Thanedar MI-13 nomination odds slip to 14% under fresh pressure 14% · $53K 24h
- Polymarket prices Shri Thanedar as the MI-13 Democratic nominee at 14%, a clear underdog read against McKinney.
- 34% of all-time volume hit in 24h, showing sharp acceleration as the primary approaches.
- Paired volume with McKinney's contract (Spike 3) confirms active reallocation, capital moving between the two candidates.
- MI-13 primary result will resolve both contracts; resolution date proximity is likely driving the urgency.
2026-08-02T09:53:38+00:00 volume-spike
McKinney leads MI-13 Democratic primary betting at 86% 86% · $49K 24h
- Polymarket puts McKinney as the MI-13 Democratic nominee at 86%, strong consensus pricing with little uncertainty left.
- 25% of all-time volume cleared in 24h, crossing the all-time quarter threshold and confirming active market interest.
- Coordinated with Thanedar contract activity; aggregate flow suggests traders are locking in the McKinney-wins narrative.
- Resolves on MI-13 primary outcome; high-confidence pricing may compress further if no late polling surprises emerge.
2026-08-01T09:55:41+00:00 volume-spike
Thanedar MI-13 nomination bid trades at 15% under fresh selling pressure 15% · $35K 24h
- Polymarket prices Thanedar at 15% to win the MI-13 Democratic nomination, clear underdog read.
- 24h volume of $35K is 35% of all-time flow, active but below the McKinney contract's intensity.
- The inverse of McKinney's 85% leaves no probability gap, market treats this as a two-horse race.
- Resolves on primary; Thanedar held MI-13 previously, giving the contract residual attention.

programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload

One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.

HTML	browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD `@type: Dataset`)	`https://clearmarket.fyi/events/mi-13-democratic-primary-winner/`
JSON	REST API for developers	`https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/mi-13-democratic-primary-winner`
MCP	agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue)	`clearmarket.get_event("mi-13-democratic-primary-winner")`
AGENT	AI crawler discovery index	`/llms.txt`

 Snapshot 2026-08-04. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
  raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint
 {
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-KJP3106M36",
  "slug": "mi-13-democratic-primary-winner",
  "question": "Will the Democratic primary winner be determined for Michigan's 13th congressional district by August 4, 2026?",
  "category": "politics",
  "tags": [
    "elections",
    "politics",
    "michigan",
    "democratic-primary",
    "2026-elections",
    "us-house"
  ],
  "venues_covered": [
    "polymarket"
  ],
  "market_count": 32,
  "cumulative_volume_usd": 70827,
  "resolution_clarity_grade": "C",
  "rcg_score": 60,
  "rcg_caps": [
    "multi_source_no_conflict_rule"
  ],
  "resolution_source": null,
  "resolution_source_url": "https://democrats.org/",
  "source_status": "platform_named",
  "source_of_record": "democrats.org",
  "resolution_source_list": [
    {
      "name": "democrats.org",
      "url": "https://democrats.org/",
      "provenance": "platform_api"
    },
    {
      "name": "https://democrats.org/",
      "url": null,
      "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
    },
    {
      "name": "official Democrat sources",
      "url": null,
      "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
    }
  ],
  "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
  "proposer_model": "managed_whitelist",
  "field_provenance": {
    "question": {
      "source": "clearmarket_editorial"
    },
    "tags": {
      "source": "clearmarket_editorial",
      "ai_drafted": true
    },
    "resolution_clarity_grade": {
      "source": "derived",
      "method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
    },
    "venues_covered": {
      "source": "derived"
    }
  }
}

snapshot 2026-08-04T20:03:51.865287+00:00 schema v0.2.0-universe all events →