Will Michael Saylor be federally charged by December 31, 2026? [ resolves 2026-12-31 (161D) ]
Michael Saylor federally charged by December 31, 2026?
polymarket: [C] multiple sources, tie-break·objective outcome methodology ›
markets · by resolution date · marks: daily snapshot
polymarket 1 market
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Saylor federally charged by December 31, 2026 | 2026-12-31 | 8.0% | $8.3K | $65K | C | 0xbec8b2…2240 |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| polymarket | Whitelisted Proposers | uncommitted | not provided | Optimistic Oracle (UMA) | Other | — |
verbatim rules
polymarket
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States federal government formally charges or announces a criminal indictment of MicroStrategy Chairman Michael Saylor between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
It will not be relevant for this market if Michael Saylor is no longer Chairman of Microstrategy at any point.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from US governmental sources, however a wide consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
platform source field
polymarket.resolutionSource → ∅ no committed source — see rules text above sources (2)
- official information from US governmental sources from rules text · editorial
- a wide consensus of credible reporting from rules text · editorial
recent wire items
monitoring status: active no active wire
No CM Signal wire has been published for this event yet.
CM Signal’s news-cycle scan surfaces the day’s top stories alongside the prediction markets pricing them. When a story references this event, its wire is published here and links back to this page.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/michael-saylor-federally-charged-by-december-31-2026-20260625210239195/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/michael-saylor-federally-charged-by-december-31-2026-20260625210239195 |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("michael-saylor-federally-charged-by-december-31-2026-20260625210239195") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-07-23. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-L2WG64RX57",
"slug": "michael-saylor-federally-charged-by-december-31-2026-20260625210239195",
"question": "Will Michael Saylor be federally charged by December 31, 2026?",
"category": "crypto",
"tags": [
"crypto",
"legal-criminal",
"michael-saylor",
"bitcoin",
"2026",
"us-federal"
],
"venues_covered": [
"polymarket"
],
"market_count": 1,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 65171,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "C",
"rcg_score": 76,
"rcg_caps": [
"commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
],
"resolution_source": null,
"resolution_source_url": null,
"source_status": "no_committed_source",
"source_of_record": null,
"resolution_source_list": [
{
"name": "official information from US governmental sources",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
{
"name": "a wide consensus of credible reporting",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
}
],
"arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
"proposer_model": "managed_whitelist",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}