Will the Michigan Democratic Senate primary winner be determined by August 4, 2026? [ resolves 2026-08-04 (29D) ]
polymarket: [C] reporting consensus methodology ›
distribution · by outcome · marks: daily snapshot
polymarket 20 markets
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Abdul El-Sayed | 2026-08-04 | 69.0% | $61 | $146K | C | 0xca0329…dd44 | ||
| Haley Stevens | 2026-08-04 | 22.0% | $5 | $42K | C | 0x0bde18…0c0e | ||
| Mallory McMorrow | 2026-08-04 | 6.0% | $39 | $45K | C | 0xeb44a0…4c3d | ||
| Andy Levin | 2026-08-04 | 0.2% | — | $30K | C | 0x49d0b5…09df | ||
| Dana Nessel | 2026-08-04 | 0.1% | — | $47K | C | 0xa05f08…5af4 | ||
| Rashida Tlaib | 2026-08-04 | 0.1% | — | $49K | C | 0x1586e3…84c3 | ||
| Sarah Anthony | 2026-08-04 | 0.1% | — | $33K | C | 0xc1c30b…3622 | ||
| Kristen McDonald Rivet | 2026-08-04 | 0.1% | $78 | $138K | C | 0xc5452a…8160 | ||
| Matt Sahr | 2026-08-04 | 0.1% | $2.5K | $114K | C | 0x91f7e7…1cbc | ||
| Person A | 2026-08-04 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x1a20b6…63bd | ||
| Person B | 2026-08-04 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x705342…eabd | ||
| Person C | 2026-08-04 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x864d54…59af | ||
| Person D | 2026-08-04 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x9eb49d…e341 | ||
| Person E | 2026-08-04 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x1c21fa…8d16 | ||
| Person F | 2026-08-04 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x28971a…8601 | ||
| Person G | 2026-08-04 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x0219aa…d56d | ||
| Person H | 2026-08-04 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0xbe488b…6c76 | ||
| Person I | 2026-08-04 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x71add8…c5ce | ||
| Person J | 2026-08-04 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x7a623a…db67 | ||
| Any other person | 2026-08-04 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x03da10…74c2 |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| polymarket | Whitelisted Proposers | uncommitted | not provided | Optimistic Oracle (UMA) | Other | — |
verbatim rules
polymarket
This market will resolve according to the winner of the Democratic Primary for United States Senator from Michigan.
If no 2026 Michigan Democratic Senate Primary takes place, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be the first announcement of the results from the Michigan Democratic party, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
platform source field
polymarket.resolutionSource → ∅ no committed source — see rules text above sources (2)
- Michigan Democratic party from rules text · editorial
- credible reporting from rules text · editorial
resolution history
| outcome | market | venue | resolved | final price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| closed | Will Person A win the 2026 Michigan Democratic Primary? | polymarket | 2026-08-04 | — |
| closed | Will Person B win the 2026 Michigan Democratic Primary? | polymarket | 2026-08-04 | — |
| closed | Will Person C win the 2026 Michigan Democratic Primary? | polymarket | 2026-08-04 | — |
| closed | Will Person D win the 2026 Michigan Democratic Primary? | polymarket | 2026-08-04 | — |
| closed | Will Person E win the 2026 Michigan Democratic Primary? | polymarket | 2026-08-04 | — |
| closed | Will Person F win the 2026 Michigan Democratic Primary? | polymarket | 2026-08-04 | — |
| closed | Will Person G win the 2026 Michigan Democratic Primary? | polymarket | 2026-08-04 | — |
| closed | Will Person H win the 2026 Michigan Democratic Primary? | polymarket | 2026-08-04 | — |
| closed | Will Person I win the 2026 Michigan Democratic Primary? | polymarket | 2026-08-04 | — |
| closed | Will Person J win the 2026 Michigan Democratic Primary? | polymarket | 2026-08-04 | — |
| closed | Will any other person win the 2026 Michigan Democratic Primary? | polymarket | 2026-08-04 | — |
Derived from the platform price + resolution-date snapshot (11 resolved markets). PENDING upgrades to a final outcome on the next refresh.
recent wire items
monitoring status: active no active wire
No CM Signal wire has been published for this event yet.
CM Signal’s news-cycle scan surfaces the day’s top stories alongside the prediction markets pricing them. When a story references this event, its wire is published here and links back to this page.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/michigan-democratic-senate-primary-winner/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/michigan-democratic-senate-primary-winner |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("michigan-democratic-senate-primary-winner") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-07-06. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-H7JM5BRSJ5",
"slug": "michigan-democratic-senate-primary-winner",
"question": "Will the Michigan Democratic Senate primary winner be determined by August 4, 2026?",
"category": "politics",
"tags": [
"elections",
"politics",
"michigan",
"democratic-primary",
"2026",
"us-senate"
],
"venues_covered": [
"polymarket"
],
"market_count": 20,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 643343,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "C",
"rcg_score": 54,
"rcg_caps": [
"commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
],
"resolution_source": null,
"resolution_source_url": null,
"source_status": "no_committed_source",
"source_of_record": null,
"resolution_source_list": [
{
"name": "Michigan Democratic party",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
{
"name": "credible reporting",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
}
],
"arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
"proposer_model": "managed_whitelist",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}