Will a Democrat win the Michigan Governor primary? [ resolved 2026-08-04 ]
polymarket: [A] single source·objective outcome methodology ›
distribution · by outcome · marks: daily snapshot
polymarket 31 markets
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jocelyn Benson | 2026-08-04 | 100.0% | — | $16K | A | 0x21ab09…e112 | ||
| Garlin Gilchrist | 2026-08-04 | 0.0% | — | $2.3K | A | 0x7622ef…887f | ||
| Marni Sawicki | 2026-08-04 | 0.0% | — | $2.2K | A | 0x9f4f66…af33 | ||
| Chris Swanson | 2026-08-04 | 0.0% | — | $2.9K | A | 0xf947f7…de6c | ||
| Another candidate | 2026-08-04 | 0.0% | — | — | A | 0x64538f…072a | ||
| Candidate A | 2026-08-04 | 0.0% | — | — | A | 0x5b543f…9d4a | ||
| Candidate B | 2026-08-04 | 0.0% | — | — | A | 0x90aead…b764 | ||
| Candidate C | 2026-08-04 | 0.0% | — | — | A | 0x22ce94…44a0 | ||
| Candidate D | 2026-08-04 | 0.0% | — | — | A | 0xa39199…3296 | ||
| Candidate E | 2026-08-04 | 0.0% | — | — | A | 0xddb7be…3c28 | ||
| Candidate F | 2026-08-04 | 0.0% | — | — | A | 0x373fed…5c37 | ||
| Candidate G | 2026-08-04 | 0.0% | — | — | A | 0xeddf4e…98d3 | ||
| Candidate H | 2026-08-04 | 0.0% | — | — | A | 0x00e0ad…a453 | ||
| Candidate I | 2026-08-04 | 0.0% | — | — | A | 0x00261c…5a8e | ||
| Candidate J | 2026-08-04 | 0.0% | — | — | A | 0x678f76…6662 | ||
| Candidate K | 2026-08-04 | 0.0% | — | — | A | 0xc1cb85…14c7 | ||
| Candidate L | 2026-08-04 | 0.0% | — | — | A | 0xd89567…2a6c | ||
| Candidate M | 2026-08-04 | 0.0% | — | — | A | 0x9ac10b…5bbd | ||
| Candidate N | 2026-08-04 | 0.0% | — | — | A | 0x0e1e6e…8d86 | ||
| Candidate O | 2026-08-04 | 0.0% | — | — | A | 0xdc3aee…0cce | ||
| Candidate P | 2026-08-04 | 0.0% | — | — | A | 0x95e778…bd67 | ||
| Candidate Q | 2026-08-04 | 0.0% | — | — | A | 0xa90dfc…5242 | ||
| Candidate R | 2026-08-04 | 0.0% | — | — | A | 0x8edf2a…383c | ||
| Candidate S | 2026-08-04 | 0.0% | — | — | A | 0x11de6a…c585 | ||
| Candidate T | 2026-08-04 | 0.0% | — | — | A | 0xd9ff44…bf0e | ||
| Candidate U | 2026-08-04 | 0.0% | — | — | A | 0xd4c48e…b15b | ||
| Candidate V | 2026-08-04 | 0.0% | — | — | A | 0x42b9f9…b3be | ||
| Candidate W | 2026-08-04 | 0.0% | — | — | A | 0xe9110a…6a1f | ||
| Candidate X | 2026-08-04 | 0.0% | — | — | A | 0x48bbce…b78e | ||
| Candidate Y | 2026-08-04 | 0.0% | — | — | A | 0x5f5515…17db | ||
| Candidate Z | 2026-08-04 | 0.0% | — | — | A | 0x1282d6…1e46 |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| polymarket | Whitelisted Proposers | not provided | not provided | Optimistic Oracle (UMA) | Other | — |
verbatim rules
polymarket
This market will resolve according to the winner of the Democratic Primary for Governor of Michigan, scheduled to take place on August 4, 2026. Resolution will be based on the overall winner of the primary, including any potential second round or run-off.
If no 2026 Michigan Gubernatorial Democratic Primary takes place, this market will resolve to “Other.”
The resolution source for this market will be the first official announcement of the results from the Michigan Democratic Party; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
platform source field
polymarket.resolutionSource → ∅ none returned sources (1) · stated precedence rule
Michigan Democratic Party committed source
resolution history
| outcome | market | venue | resolved | final price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NO | Will Marni Sawicki win the 2026 Michigan Governor Democratic primary election? | polymarket | 2026-08-05 | 0% |
| NO | Will Garlin Gilchrist win the 2026 Michigan Governor Democratic primary election? | polymarket | 2026-08-05 | 0% |
| NO | Will Chris Swanson win the 2026 Michigan Governor Democratic primary election? | polymarket | 2026-08-05 | 0% |
| YES | Will Jocelyn Benson win the 2026 Michigan Governor Democratic primary election? | polymarket | 2026-08-05 | 100% |
Resolution dates are the venue's settlement timestamps (4 resolved markets). Rows shown as "by [date]" carry the contract deadline: the venue no longer exposes a settlement time for them. PENDING upgrades to a final outcome on the next refresh.
recent wire items
monitoring status: active no active wire
No CM Signal wire has been published for this event yet.
CM Signal’s news-cycle scan surfaces the day’s top stories alongside the prediction markets pricing them. When a story references this event, its wire is published here and links back to this page.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/michigan-governor-democratic-primary-winner/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/michigan-governor-democratic-primary-winner |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("michigan-governor-democratic-primary-winner") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-08-04. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-8YTCGVFP52",
"slug": "michigan-governor-democratic-primary-winner",
"question": "Will a Democrat win the Michigan Governor primary?",
"category": "politics",
"tags": [
"politics",
"elections",
"2026",
"michigan",
"democratic-primary",
"governor-race"
],
"venues_covered": [
"polymarket"
],
"market_count": 31,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 23053,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "A",
"rcg_score": 84,
"rcg_caps": [],
"resolution_source": null,
"resolution_source_url": null,
"source_status": "platform_named",
"source_of_record": "Michigan Democratic Party",
"resolution_source_list": [
{
"name": "Michigan Democratic Party",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
}
],
"arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
"proposer_model": "managed_whitelist",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}