Will the Michigan Governor election be won by the Democratic candidate? [ resolves — ]
polymarket: [A] multiple sources, tie-break·objective outcome methodology ›
distribution · by outcome · marks: daily snapshot
polymarket 13 markets
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| The Democrats | — | 99.8% | — | $42K | A | 0x76cfac…8aae | ||
| The Republicans | — | 16.0% | — | $143K | A | 0xeee75e…be93 | ||
| An independent | — | 0.3% | — | $237 | A | 0xdfb797…fce4 | ||
| Option C | — | 0.0% | — | — | A | 0x353914…329c | ||
| Option E | — | 0.0% | — | — | A | 0xad1f45…aa71 | ||
| Option G | — | 0.0% | — | — | A | 0xbb2247…a1da | ||
| Option I | — | 0.0% | — | — | A | 0x958554…f4a7 | ||
| Other | — | 0.0% | — | — | A | 0xb6995f…41cd | ||
| Option B | — | 0.0% | — | — | A | 0x44cdd8…e824 | ||
| Option D | — | 0.0% | — | — | A | 0xc9c884…533e | ||
| Option F | — | 0.0% | — | — | A | 0x7a0ac1…28d2 | ||
| Option H | — | 0.0% | — | — | A | 0xdc5d84…1d37 | ||
| Option J | — | 0.0% | — | — | A | 0x9997c3…e3af |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| polymarket | Whitelisted Proposers | not provided | not provided | Optimistic Oracle (UMA) | Other | — |
verbatim rules
polymarket
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Michigan gubernatorial election.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
platform source field
polymarket.resolutionSource → ∅ none returned sources (4) · quorum — multiple sources must agree
Associated Press from rules text Fox News from rules text NBC from rules text official certification from rules text
recent wire items
- Michigan governor race leans heavily Democratic as volume returns 95% · $34K 24h
- Polymarket prices 95%, market is pricing near-certain Democratic victory in the Michigan governor race.
- $33K in 24h is 28% of all-time volume on a $120K contract, consistent with ongoing positioning.
- Michigan's open governor seat draws continued attention as a flagship 2026 Democratic hold target.
- Resolves on 2026 Michigan gubernatorial election result.
- Democrats near-locked for Michigan governor at 97% 97% · $26K 24h
- Polymarket prices Democrats at 97% for the Michigan governor race, a near-certain outcome at current odds.
- 33% of all-time volume cleared in 24 hours on a contract already priced as effectively resolved.
- At 97%, fresh volume likely reflects arbitrage, position exit, or hedging against a tail scenario rather than competitive speculation.
- Resolves on the 2026 Michigan gubernatorial election outcome.
- Heavy trading holds Michigan Democrats as firm favorite 94% · $20K 24h
- Polymarket contract prices Michigan Democratic gubernatorial win at 94%, market treats the race as nearly decided.
- 24h volume of $20K represents 28% of all-time contract flow, a notable single-session concentration at this late probability extreme.
- Michigan's open-seat 2026 race is a top-tier battleground; trading at 94% with fresh volume implies recent developments are reinforcing Democratic strength, not testing it.
- Resolves on 2026 Michigan general election certified result.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/michigan-governor-winner-2026/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/michigan-governor-winner-2026 |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("michigan-governor-winner-2026") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-08-04. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-GTDLXYMZQ7",
"slug": "michigan-governor-winner-2026",
"question": "Will the Michigan Governor election be won by the Democratic candidate?",
"category": "politics",
"tags": [
"elections",
"politics",
"michigan",
"2026",
"us-governors",
"state-elections"
],
"venues_covered": [
"polymarket"
],
"market_count": 13,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 184854,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "A",
"rcg_score": 85,
"rcg_caps": [],
"resolution_source": null,
"resolution_source_url": null,
"source_status": "platform_named",
"source_of_record": null,
"resolution_source_list": [
{
"name": "Associated Press",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
{
"name": "Fox News",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
{
"name": "NBC",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
{
"name": "official certification",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
}
],
"arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
"proposer_model": "managed_whitelist",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}