Will the Michigan Republican Senate primary winner be decided by August 4, 2026? [ resolves 2026-08-04 (12D) ]
polymarket: [C] multiple sources, no tie-break·reporting consensus methodology ›
distribution · by outcome · marks: daily snapshot
polymarket 33 markets
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mike Rogers | 2026-08-04 | 98.9% | — | $5.9K | C | 0xfa7a55…54c1 | ||
| Genevieve Scott | 2026-08-04 | 0.8% | — | $905 | C | 0x022e78…da0e | ||
| Kent Benham | 2026-08-04 | 0.2% | — | $1.6K | C | 0xe83515…b410 | ||
| Fred Heurtebise | 2026-08-04 | 0.2% | — | $985 | C | 0x9678ed…adc3 | ||
| Bernadette Smith | 2026-08-04 | 0.1% | — | $673 | C | 0x0c8283…08ce | ||
| Andrew Kamal | 2026-08-04 | 0.1% | — | $683 | C | 0x51f870…93fe | ||
| Another candidate | 2026-08-04 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x43596d…5550 | ||
| Candidate A | 2026-08-04 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0xd7c670…e8bd | ||
| Candidate B | 2026-08-04 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x679e9d…adf0 | ||
| Candidate C | 2026-08-04 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0xdcdc10…333e | ||
| Candidate D | 2026-08-04 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x0904bb…e75c | ||
| Candidate E | 2026-08-04 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x3463c8…1b59 | ||
| Candidate F | 2026-08-04 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0xab1125…75dd | ||
| Candidate G | 2026-08-04 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0xd742b7…f033 | ||
| Candidate H | 2026-08-04 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x5d624f…917f | ||
| Candidate I | 2026-08-04 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x768fc1…a257 | ||
| Candidate J | 2026-08-04 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0xd3c426…4f7f | ||
| Candidate K | 2026-08-04 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x61f3e1…2c86 | ||
| Candidate L | 2026-08-04 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0xb32b69…3f7a | ||
| Candidate M | 2026-08-04 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0xf54f4f…0e35 | ||
| Candidate N | 2026-08-04 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0xae1614…bd3d | ||
| Candidate O | 2026-08-04 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x4b6224…e272 | ||
| Candidate P | 2026-08-04 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x76d588…d74a | ||
| Candidate Q | 2026-08-04 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x556401…d2cf | ||
| Candidate R | 2026-08-04 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x90c7c7…1551 | ||
| Candidate S | 2026-08-04 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x5c9089…16eb | ||
| Candidate T | 2026-08-04 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x9be468…3805 | ||
| Candidate U | 2026-08-04 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x6d20e0…3015 | ||
| Candidate V | 2026-08-04 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x0d059e…0d1a | ||
| Candidate W | 2026-08-04 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x0f49ff…b010 | ||
| Candidate X | 2026-08-04 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x9ad353…c262 | ||
| Candidate Y | 2026-08-04 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x2abf68…ffe0 | ||
| Candidate Z | 2026-08-04 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x890cb3…3441 |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| polymarket | Whitelisted Proposers | uncommitted | not provided | Optimistic Oracle (UMA) | Other | — |
verbatim rules
polymarket
This market will resolve according to the winner of the Republican Primary for United States Senator from Michigan.
If no 2026 Michigan Republican Senate Primary takes place, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be the first announcement of the results from the Michigan Republican Party, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
platform source field
polymarket.resolutionSource → ∅ no committed source — see rules text above sources (2)
- the Michigan Republican Party from rules text · editorial
- an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting from rules text · editorial
recent wire items
monitoring status: active no active wire
No CM Signal wire has been published for this event yet.
CM Signal’s news-cycle scan surfaces the day’s top stories alongside the prediction markets pricing them. When a story references this event, its wire is published here and links back to this page.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/michigan-republican-senate-primary-winner-954/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/michigan-republican-senate-primary-winner-954 |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("michigan-republican-senate-primary-winner-954") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-07-23. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-D20S89GWC7",
"slug": "michigan-republican-senate-primary-winner-954",
"question": "Will the Michigan Republican Senate primary winner be decided by August 4, 2026?",
"category": "politics",
"tags": [
"politics",
"elections",
"2026",
"us-senate",
"michigan",
"republican-primary"
],
"venues_covered": [
"polymarket"
],
"market_count": 33,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 10742,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "C",
"rcg_score": 48,
"rcg_caps": [
"multi_source_no_conflict_rule",
"commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
],
"resolution_source": null,
"resolution_source_url": null,
"source_status": "no_committed_source",
"source_of_record": null,
"resolution_source_list": [
{
"name": "the Michigan Republican Party",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
{
"name": "an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
}
],
"arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
"proposer_model": "managed_whitelist",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}