Will a Michigan Senate election winner be determined by the next election cycle? [ resolves — ]
polymarket: [C] multiple sources, no tie-break·reporting consensus methodology ›
distribution · by outcome · marks: daily snapshot
polymarket 13 markets
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| The Democrats | — | 68.0% | $613 | $105K | C | 0xbfeb6d…5bd4 | ||
| The Republicans | — | 36.0% | $8.9K | $63K | C | 0x3fd189…cf2d | ||
| Person A | — | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0xf18e96…b155 | ||
| Person B | — | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x718183…f7ca | ||
| Person C | — | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x03df8e…0255 | ||
| Person D | — | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x31e9df…a377 | ||
| Person E | — | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0xa24d35…59a6 | ||
| Person F | — | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x8706a8…fb10 | ||
| Person G | — | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x0bb7fc…fb06 | ||
| Person H | — | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x6c13a1…e0ce | ||
| Person I | — | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x41c13c…7af2 | ||
| Person J | — | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0xc0e906…8d4c | ||
| A candidate not listed above | — | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x63136e…fe6f |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| polymarket | Whitelisted Proposers | not provided | not provided | Optimistic Oracle (UMA) | Other | — |
verbatim rules
polymarket
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Michigan U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
platform source field
polymarket.resolutionSource → ∅ none returned sources (3) · quorum — multiple sources must agree
Associated Press from rules text Fox News from rules text NBC from rules text
recent wire items
- Traders back Michigan Senate staying a Democratic hold at 41% GOP odds 41% · $39K 24h
- 41% price means the market assigns Republicans a meaningful but sub-50% chance in Michigan.
- 35% of all-time volume in 24h points to a catalyst, likely a candidate announcement or new poll.
- Michigan Senate is a marquee 2026 battleground; fresh capital is narrowing the Democratic edge.
- Race resolves on November 2026 election night, a long runway keeps volatility elevated.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/michigan-senate-election-winner/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/michigan-senate-election-winner |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("michigan-senate-election-winner") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-08-04. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-P8B8CLLCB5",
"slug": "michigan-senate-election-winner",
"question": "Will a Michigan Senate election winner be determined by the next election cycle?",
"category": "politics",
"tags": [
"politics",
"elections",
"michigan",
"us-senate",
"2026-election",
"partisan-outcome"
],
"venues_covered": [
"polymarket"
],
"market_count": 13,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 168348,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "C",
"rcg_score": 60,
"rcg_caps": [
"multi_source_no_conflict_rule"
],
"resolution_source": null,
"resolution_source_url": null,
"source_status": "platform_named",
"source_of_record": "Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC",
"resolution_source_list": [
{
"name": "Associated Press",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
{
"name": "Fox News",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
{
"name": "NBC",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
}
],
"arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
"proposer_model": "managed_whitelist",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}