Will Miguel Díaz-Canel no longer be the leader of Cuba by a specified date? [ resolves 2026-03 – 2026-12 ]

Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by December 31?

polymarket: [C] multiple sources, no tie-break·reporting consensus methodology ›

markets · by resolution date

polymarket 3 markets

market	resolves	P(YES)	vol (24h)	vol (cum)	RCG	venue id
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by March 31	2026-03-31	0.1%	—	$421K	C	`0xbbdff0…e1a1`
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by June 30	2026-06-30	9.0%	$19K	$885K	C	`0x119db6…d515`
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by December 31	2026-12-31	53.0%	$9.7K	$346K	C	`0x115374…b781`

resolution architecture

venue	proposer	source	citation	arbitration	class	analyst notes
polymarket	`Whitelisted Proposers`	uncommitted	not provided	`Optimistic Oracle (UMA)`	`Other`	—

verbatim rules

polymarket 3 markets · share this text

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Miguel Díaz-Canel ceases to be President of Cuba for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Miguel Díaz-Canel's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. If the specified individual is detained, effectively removed from the specified position, or otherwise permanently prevented from fulfilling the duties of the specified position within this market’s timeframe, it will qualify for a “Yes” resolution. The resolution source for this market will be official information from Miguel Díaz-Canel and the government of Cuba; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

platform source field polymarket.resolutionSource → ∅ no committed source — see rules text above

recent wire items

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programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload

AI grounded search reads embedded JSON-LD in HTML. Developers query REST. Agentic AI clients (Claude Desktop, Cursor) call MCP tools. AI crawlers index via /llms.txt. Same canonical record at every surface.

HTML	browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD `@type: Dataset`)	`https://clearmarket.fyi/events/miguel-daz-canel-out-as-leader-of-cuba-by-june-30/`
JSON	REST API for developers	`https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/miguel-daz-canel-out-as-leader-of-cuba-by-june-30.json`
MCP	agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue)	`clearmarket.get_event("miguel-daz-canel-out-as-leader-of-cuba-by-june-30")`
AGENT	AI crawler discovery index	`/llms.txt`

 Snapshot 2026-06-03. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
  raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint
 {
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-Y2J6FV0VH3",
  "slug": "miguel-daz-canel-out-as-leader-of-cuba-by-june-30",
  "question": "Will Miguel Díaz-Canel no longer be the leader of Cuba by a specified date?",
  "category": "geopolitics",
  "tags": [
    "cuban-politics",
    "leadership-transition",
    "geopolitics",
    "caribbean-region",
    "2026-resolution"
  ],
  "venues_covered": [
    "polymarket"
  ],
  "market_count": 3,
  "cumulative_volume_usd": 1651678,
  "resolution_clarity_grade": "C",
  "rcg_score": 24,
  "rcg_caps": [
    "multi_source_no_conflict_rule",
    "adversarial_ground_truth"
  ],
  "resolution_source": null,
  "resolution_source_url": null,
  "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
  "proposer_model": "managed_whitelist",
  "field_provenance": {
    "question": {
      "source": "clearmarket_editorial"
    },
    "tags": {
      "source": "clearmarket_editorial",
      "ai_drafted": true
    },
    "resolution_clarity_grade": {
      "source": "derived",
      "method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
    },
    "venues_covered": {
      "source": "derived"
    }
  }
}

snapshot 2026-06-03T14:52:43.794845+00:00 schema v0.2.0-universe all events →