Mike Johnson out as Speaker by December 31? [ resolves 2025-12 – 2026-12 ]

Mike Johnson out as Speaker by December 31?

polymarket: [C] multiple sources, no tie-break·reporting consensus methodology ›

distribution · by resolution date

polymarket 4 markets

market	resolves	P(YES)	vol (24h)	vol (cum)	RCG	venue id
Mike Johnson out as Speaker by December 31	2025-12-31	1.0%	—	$59K	C	`0x0bfba1…1562`
Mike Johnson out as Speaker by March 31	2026-03-31	0.1%	—	$35K	C	`0x75792d…ea62`
Mike Johnson out as Speaker by June 30	2026-06-30	2.6%	—	$6.2K	C	`0xef416c…e2c5`
Mike Johnson out as Speaker by December 31	2026-12-31	10.0%	—	$3.0K	C	`0xfa3665…6d15`

resolution architecture

venue	proposer	source	citation	arbitration	class	analyst notes
polymarket	`Whitelisted Proposers`	uncommitted	not provided	`Optimistic Oracle (UMA)`	`Other`	—

verbatim rules

polymarket 4 markets · share this text

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Mike Johnson announces that he will resign from his position as Speaker of the US House of Representatives, or otherwise ceases to be Speaker for any length of time, between April 9, and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Note that an announcement of his resignation before the resolution date will suffice to resolve this market to "Yes" regardless of if/when he actually steps down. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of the United States of America or official statements by Mike Johnson or his representative, however a consensus of credible reporting will suffice.

platform source field polymarket.resolutionSource → ∅ no committed source — see rules text above

recent wire items

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CM Signal’s news-cycle scan surfaces the day’s top stories alongside the prediction markets pricing them. When a story references this event, its wire is published here and links back to this page.

programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload

AI grounded search reads embedded JSON-LD in HTML. Developers query REST. Agentic AI clients (Claude Desktop, Cursor) call MCP tools. AI crawlers index via /llms.txt. Same canonical record at every surface.

HTML	browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD `@type: Dataset`)	`https://clearmarket.fyi/events/mike-johnson-out-as-speaker-by/`
JSON	REST API for developers	`https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/mike-johnson-out-as-speaker-by.json`
MCP	agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue)	`clearmarket.get_event("mike-johnson-out-as-speaker-by")`
AGENT	AI crawler discovery index	`/llms.txt`

 Snapshot 2026-06-03. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
  raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint
 {
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-7599758YL7",
  "slug": "mike-johnson-out-as-speaker-by",
  "question": "Mike Johnson out as Speaker by December 31?",
  "category": "politics",
  "tags": [
    "politics",
    "congress",
    "speaker-of-the-house",
    "us-leadership",
    "2025"
  ],
  "venues_covered": [
    "polymarket"
  ],
  "market_count": 4,
  "cumulative_volume_usd": 102512,
  "resolution_clarity_grade": "C",
  "rcg_score": 52,
  "rcg_caps": [
    "multi_source_no_conflict_rule"
  ],
  "resolution_source": null,
  "resolution_source_url": null,
  "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
  "proposer_model": "managed_whitelist",
  "field_provenance": {
    "question": {
      "source": "clearmarket_editorial"
    },
    "tags": {
      "source": "clearmarket_editorial",
      "ai_drafted": true
    },
    "resolution_clarity_grade": {
      "source": "derived",
      "method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
    },
    "venues_covered": {
      "source": "derived"
    }
  }
}

snapshot 2026-06-03T14:52:43.794845+00:00 schema v0.2.0-universe all events →