Will the minimum Arctic sea ice extent this summer be less than 4m square kilometers? [ resolves 2026-10-01 (120D) ]
polymarket: [B] single source·objective outcome methodology ›
distribution · by strike
polymarket 7 markets
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤ 4 | 2026-10-01 | 48.0% | $204 | $27K | B | 0xa776ef…590c | ||
| 4 | 2026-10-01 | 29.1% | — | $4.5K | B | 0xa18596…7099 | ||
| 4.2 | 2026-10-01 | 9.7% | — | $1.4K | B | 0x4c3dcf…38ad | ||
| 4.4 | 2026-10-01 | 6.6% | $37 | $1.8K | B | 0x1454f7…9f9c | ||
| 4.6 | 2026-10-01 | 4.3% | $73 | $3.2K | B | 0x2b4c48…4e7c | ||
| 4.8 | 2026-10-01 | 2.4% | $100 | $1.8K | B | 0x71893b…d994 | ||
| ≥ 5 | 2026-10-01 | 1.1% | $32 | $14K | B | 0x7dafab…818d |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| polymarket | Whitelisted Proposers | uncommitted | link | Optimistic Oracle (UMA) | Other | — |
verbatim rules
polymarket
This market will resolve according to the minimum Arctic sea ice extent for all days between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026, as published by the National Snow and Ice Data Center.
This market will remain open until data has been published for October 1, 2026, at which point it will resolve immediately. Any revisions to sea ice extent recorded after data is published for October 1, 2026 will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to thousands of square kilometers (e.g. 4.255 million sq km). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the National Snow and Ice Data Center, specifically the minimum value recorded for any day between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026 in the “NH-Daily-Extent” tab of the “Sea Ice Index Daily Extent” data set, available at https://nsidc.org/sea-ice-today/sea-ice-tools. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, another resolution source will be chosen.
platform source field
polymarket.description → https://nsidc.org/sea-ice-today/sea-ice-tools recent wire items
monitoring status: active no active wire
No CM Signal wire has been published for this event yet.
CM Signal’s news-cycle scan surfaces the day’s top stories alongside the prediction markets pricing them. When a story references this event, its wire is published here and links back to this page.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
AI grounded search reads embedded JSON-LD in HTML. Developers query REST. Agentic AI clients (Claude Desktop, Cursor) call MCP tools. AI crawlers index via /llms.txt. Same canonical record at every surface.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/min-arctic-sea-ice-extent-this-summer/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/min-arctic-sea-ice-extent-this-summer.json |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("min-arctic-sea-ice-extent-this-summer") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-06-03. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-61H25PYRZ2",
"slug": "min-arctic-sea-ice-extent-this-summer",
"question": "Will the minimum Arctic sea ice extent this summer be less than 4m square kilometers?",
"category": "climate",
"tags": [
"climate",
"arctic-sea-ice",
"environmental-measurement",
"seasonal-extreme",
"2026"
],
"venues_covered": [
"polymarket"
],
"market_count": 7,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 53365,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "B",
"rcg_score": 84,
"rcg_caps": [
"uncommitted_illustrative"
],
"resolution_source": null,
"resolution_source_url": "https://nsidc.org/sea-ice-today/sea-ice-tools",
"arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
"proposer_model": "managed_whitelist",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}