Will the Minas Gerais Governor Election be decided by October 4, 2026? [ resolves 2026-10-04 (90D) ]
polymarket: [A] single source·objective outcome methodology ›
distribution · by outcome · marks: daily snapshot
polymarket 30 markets
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cleitinho Azevedo | 2026-10-04 | 70.0% | $10 | $14K | A | 0xbb9450…7a3e | ||
| Alexandre Kalil | 2026-10-04 | 10.9% | $38 | $15K | A | 0x215337…47d8 | ||
| Mateus Simões | 2026-10-04 | 8.0% | — | $1.6K | A | 0xfa9f31…6aa5 | ||
| Rodrigo Pacheco | 2026-10-04 | 8.0% | $113 | $15K | A | 0x60d451…9cf9 | ||
| Gabriel Azevedo | 2026-10-04 | 6.0% | — | $2.5K | A | 0x8cf6dc…f1e6 | ||
| Benoni Mendes | 2026-10-04 | 3.5% | — | $2.3K | A | 0xece404…4c3b | ||
| Nikolas Ferreira | 2026-10-04 | 3.2% | — | $3.6K | A | 0xafd374…c5c8 | ||
| Aécio Neves | 2026-10-04 | 0.4% | $119 | $1.6K | A | 0xdc49f2…9b21 | ||
| Tadeu Leite | 2026-10-04 | 0.4% | $30 | $2.4K | A | 0x6834d1…cb2b | ||
| Alexandre Silveira | 2026-10-04 | 0.1% | — | $1.2K | A | 0x7b62e2…7625 | ||
| Placeholder 3 | 2026-10-04 | 0.0% | — | — | A | 0x03b6eb…7388 | ||
| Placeholder 5 | 2026-10-04 | 0.0% | — | — | A | 0x542128…4611 | ||
| Placeholder 7 | 2026-10-04 | 0.0% | — | — | A | 0x914de3…7099 | ||
| Placeholder 9 | 2026-10-04 | 0.0% | — | — | A | 0xc9ecb1…c77d | ||
| Placeholder 11 | 2026-10-04 | 0.0% | — | — | A | 0x507e9e…aa1f | ||
| Placeholder 13 | 2026-10-04 | 0.0% | — | — | A | 0xb9f6a1…ea6b | ||
| Placeholder 15 | 2026-10-04 | 0.0% | — | — | A | 0xee1bb3…2d9a | ||
| Placeholder 17 | 2026-10-04 | 0.0% | — | — | A | 0xcd3e95…c0c9 | ||
| Placeholder 19 | 2026-10-04 | 0.0% | — | — | A | 0x77c0e0…ae00 | ||
| Someone else | 2026-10-04 | 0.0% | — | — | A | 0xa04e0a…d45f | ||
| Placeholder 2 | 2026-10-04 | 0.0% | — | — | A | 0xb029fc…4f0a | ||
| Placeholder 4 | 2026-10-04 | 0.0% | — | — | A | 0x4cbbc5…59ae | ||
| Placeholder 6 | 2026-10-04 | 0.0% | — | — | A | 0x9ecca5…51a2 | ||
| Placeholder 8 | 2026-10-04 | 0.0% | — | — | A | 0x5a29ec…9f1a | ||
| Placeholder 10 | 2026-10-04 | 0.0% | — | — | A | 0x9b3a7f…3fb9 | ||
| Placeholder 12 | 2026-10-04 | 0.0% | — | — | A | 0x35b755…8e90 | ||
| Placeholder 14 | 2026-10-04 | 0.0% | — | — | A | 0x400cbc…a840 | ||
| Placeholder 16 | 2026-10-04 | 0.0% | — | — | A | 0xbe1597…12b9 | ||
| Placeholder 18 | 2026-10-04 | 0.0% | — | — | A | 0x8f8cf0…a8ea | ||
| Placeholder 20 | 2026-10-04 | 0.0% | — | — | A | 0x238be9…3626 |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| polymarket | Whitelisted Proposers | not provided | link | Optimistic Oracle (UMA) | Other | — |
verbatim rules
polymarket
The Minas Gerais gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
platform source field
polymarket.description → www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes sources (3) · stated precedence rule
- tse.jus.br venue-listed
- Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) source of record from rules text · editorial
- www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes from rules text · editorial
resolution history
| outcome | market | venue | resolved | final price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| closed | Will Placeholder 3 win the 2026 Minas Gerais gubernatorial election? | polymarket | 2026-10-04 | — |
| closed | Will Placeholder 5 win the 2026 Minas Gerais gubernatorial election? | polymarket | 2026-10-04 | — |
| closed | Will Placeholder 7 win the 2026 Minas Gerais gubernatorial election? | polymarket | 2026-10-04 | — |
| closed | Will Placeholder 9 win the 2026 Minas Gerais gubernatorial election? | polymarket | 2026-10-04 | — |
| closed | Will Placeholder 11 win the 2026 Minas Gerais gubernatorial election? | polymarket | 2026-10-04 | — |
| closed | Will Placeholder 13 win the 2026 Minas Gerais gubernatorial election? | polymarket | 2026-10-04 | — |
| closed | Will Placeholder 15 win the 2026 Minas Gerais gubernatorial election? | polymarket | 2026-10-04 | — |
| closed | Will Placeholder 17 win the 2026 Minas Gerais gubernatorial election? | polymarket | 2026-10-04 | — |
| closed | Will Placeholder 19 win the 2026 Minas Gerais gubernatorial election? | polymarket | 2026-10-04 | — |
| closed | Will someone else win the 2026 Minas Gerais gubernatorial election? | polymarket | 2026-10-04 | — |
| closed | Will Placeholder 2 win the 2026 Minas Gerais gubernatorial election? | polymarket | 2026-10-04 | — |
| closed | Will Placeholder 4 win the 2026 Minas Gerais gubernatorial election? | polymarket | 2026-10-04 | — |
| closed | Will Placeholder 6 win the 2026 Minas Gerais gubernatorial election? | polymarket | 2026-10-04 | — |
| closed | Will Placeholder 8 win the 2026 Minas Gerais gubernatorial election? | polymarket | 2026-10-04 | — |
| closed | Will Placeholder 10 win the 2026 Minas Gerais gubernatorial election? | polymarket | 2026-10-04 | — |
| closed | Will Placeholder 12 win the 2026 Minas Gerais gubernatorial election? | polymarket | 2026-10-04 | — |
| closed | Will Placeholder 14 win the 2026 Minas Gerais gubernatorial election? | polymarket | 2026-10-04 | — |
| closed | Will Placeholder 16 win the 2026 Minas Gerais gubernatorial election? | polymarket | 2026-10-04 | — |
| closed | Will Placeholder 18 win the 2026 Minas Gerais gubernatorial election? | polymarket | 2026-10-04 | — |
| closed | Will Placeholder 20 win the 2026 Minas Gerais gubernatorial election? | polymarket | 2026-10-04 | — |
Derived from the platform price + resolution-date snapshot (20 resolved markets). PENDING upgrades to a final outcome on the next refresh.
recent wire items
monitoring status: active no active wire
No CM Signal wire has been published for this event yet.
CM Signal’s news-cycle scan surfaces the day’s top stories alongside the prediction markets pricing them. When a story references this event, its wire is published here and links back to this page.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/minas-gerais-governor-election-winner/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/minas-gerais-governor-election-winner |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("minas-gerais-governor-election-winner") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-07-06. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-S4L4VK6RC3",
"slug": "minas-gerais-governor-election-winner",
"question": "Will the Minas Gerais Governor Election be decided by October 4, 2026?",
"category": "politics",
"tags": [
"elections",
"politics",
"brazil",
"gubernatorial-race",
"minas-gerais",
"2026"
],
"venues_covered": [
"polymarket"
],
"market_count": 30,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 58512,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "A",
"rcg_score": 93,
"rcg_caps": [],
"resolution_source": null,
"resolution_source_url": "www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes",
"source_status": "platform_named",
"source_of_record": "Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE)",
"resolution_source_list": [
{
"name": "tse.jus.br",
"url": "www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE)",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
{
"name": "www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
}
],
"arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
"proposer_model": "managed_whitelist",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}