Will the Minas Gerais Governor Election be decided by October 4, 2026? [ resolved 2026-10-05 ]
Will Cleitinho Azevedo win the 2026 Minas Gerais gubernatorial election?
polymarket: [A] single source·objective outcome methodology ›
distribution · by resolution date · marks: daily snapshot
polymarket 30 markets
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Someone else | 2026-10-04 | 0.0% | — | — | A | 0xa04e0a…d45f | ||
| Placeholder 6 | 2026-10-04 | 0.0% | — | — | A | 0x9ecca5…51a2 | ||
| Placeholder 7 | 2026-10-04 | 0.0% | — | — | A | 0x914de3…7099 | ||
| Placeholder 8 | 2026-10-04 | 0.0% | — | — | A | 0x5a29ec…9f1a | ||
| Placeholder 9 | 2026-10-04 | 0.0% | — | — | A | 0xc9ecb1…c77d | ||
| Placeholder 10 | 2026-10-04 | 0.0% | — | — | A | 0x9b3a7f…3fb9 | ||
| Placeholder 11 | 2026-10-04 | 0.0% | — | — | A | 0x507e9e…aa1f | ||
| Placeholder 12 | 2026-10-04 | 0.0% | — | — | A | 0x35b755…8e90 | ||
| Placeholder 13 | 2026-10-04 | 0.0% | — | — | A | 0xb9f6a1…ea6b | ||
| Placeholder 14 | 2026-10-04 | 0.0% | — | — | A | 0x400cbc…a840 | ||
| Placeholder 15 | 2026-10-04 | 0.0% | — | — | A | 0xee1bb3…2d9a | ||
| Placeholder 16 | 2026-10-04 | 0.0% | — | — | A | 0xbe1597…12b9 | ||
| Placeholder 17 | 2026-10-04 | 0.0% | — | — | A | 0xcd3e95…c0c9 | ||
| Placeholder 18 | 2026-10-04 | 0.0% | — | — | A | 0x8f8cf0…a8ea | ||
| Placeholder 19 | 2026-10-04 | 0.0% | — | — | A | 0x77c0e0…ae00 | ||
| Placeholder 20 | 2026-10-04 | 0.0% | — | — | A | 0x238be9…3626 | ||
| Cleitinho Azevedo | 2026-10-05 | 100.0% | $18K | $99K | A | 0xbb9450…7a3e | ||
| Rodrigo Pacheco | 2026-10-05 | 0.0% | $41 | $16K | A | 0x60d451…9cf9 | ||
| Nikolas Ferreira | 2026-10-05 | 0.0% | — | $4.5K | A | 0xafd374…c5c8 | ||
| Alexandre Kalil | 2026-10-05 | 0.0% | $4.3K | $29K | A | 0x215337…47d8 | ||
| Mateus Simões | 2026-10-05 | 0.0% | $5.3K | $15K | A | 0xfa9f31…6aa5 | ||
| Tadeu Leite | 2026-10-05 | 0.0% | $54 | $2.7K | A | 0x6834d1…cb2b | ||
| Aécio Neves | 2026-10-05 | 0.0% | — | $2.1K | A | 0xdc49f2…9b21 | ||
| Alexandre Silveira | 2026-10-05 | 0.0% | — | $1.5K | A | 0x7b62e2…7625 | ||
| Gabriel Azevedo | 2026-10-05 | 0.0% | $143 | $3.6K | A | 0x8cf6dc…f1e6 | ||
| Benoni Mendes | 2026-10-05 | 0.0% | $44 | $3.3K | A | 0xece404…4c3b | ||
| Patrus Ananias | 2026-10-05 | 0.0% | $714 | $714 | A | 0xb029fc…4f0a | ||
| Marcelo Aro | 2026-10-05 | 0.0% | $444 | $444 | A | 0x03b6eb…7388 | ||
| Flávio Roscoe | 2026-10-05 | 0.0% | $115 | $115 | A | 0x4cbbc5…59ae | ||
| Vittorio Medioli | 2026-10-05 | 0.0% | $115 | $115 | A | 0x542128…4611 |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| polymarket | Whitelisted Proposers | not provided | link | Optimistic Oracle (UMA) | Other | — |
verbatim rules
polymarket
The Minas Gerais gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
platform source field
polymarket.description → www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes sources (3) · stated precedence rule
tse.jus.br committed source Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) from rules text www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes from rules text
resolution history
| outcome | market | venue | resolved | final price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| YES | Will Cleitinho Azevedo win the 2026 Minas Gerais gubernatorial election? | polymarket | 2026-10-05 | 100% |
| NO | Will Rodrigo Pacheco win the 2026 Minas Gerais gubernatorial election? | polymarket | 2026-10-05 | 0% |
| NO | Will Nikolas Ferreira win the 2026 Minas Gerais gubernatorial election? | polymarket | 2026-10-05 | 0% |
| NO | Will Alexandre Kalil win the 2026 Minas Gerais gubernatorial election? | polymarket | 2026-10-05 | 0% |
| NO | Will Mateus Simões win the 2026 Minas Gerais gubernatorial election? | polymarket | 2026-10-05 | 0% |
| NO | Will Tadeu Leite win the 2026 Minas Gerais gubernatorial election? | polymarket | 2026-10-05 | 0% |
| NO | Will Aécio Neves win the 2026 Minas Gerais gubernatorial election? | polymarket | 2026-10-05 | 0% |
| NO | Will Alexandre Silveira win the 2026 Minas Gerais gubernatorial election? | polymarket | 2026-10-05 | 0% |
| NO | Will Gabriel Azevedo win the 2026 Minas Gerais gubernatorial election? | polymarket | 2026-10-05 | 0% |
| NO | Will Benoni Mendes win the 2026 Minas Gerais gubernatorial election? | polymarket | 2026-10-05 | 0% |
| NO | Will Patrus Ananias win the 2026 Minas Gerais gubernatorial election? | polymarket | 2026-10-05 | 0% |
| NO | Will Marcelo Aro win the 2026 Minas Gerais gubernatorial election? | polymarket | 2026-10-05 | 0% |
| NO | Will Flávio Roscoe win the 2026 Minas Gerais gubernatorial election? | polymarket | 2026-10-05 | 0% |
| NO | Will Vittorio Medioli win the 2026 Minas Gerais gubernatorial election? | polymarket | 2026-10-05 | 0% |
Resolution dates are the venue's settlement timestamps (14 resolved markets). Rows shown as "by [date]" carry the contract deadline: the venue no longer exposes a settlement time for them. PENDING upgrades to a final outcome on the next refresh.
recent wire items
- Aro Minas Gerais governor bid stays near zero on near-record volume 2% · $15K 24h
- 2% pricing is a near-total dismissal of Aro's chances in the Minas Gerais race.
- 76% of all-time volume hit in 24h, the contract is seeing its most active session by far.
- Surge may reflect a poll release, rival candidate consolidation, or a field-clarifying event in MG.
- Resolves on 2026 Brazilian state election; the near-zero price limits further downside.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/minas-gerais-governor-election-winner/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/minas-gerais-governor-election-winner |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("minas-gerais-governor-election-winner") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-08-04. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-S4L4VK6RC3",
"slug": "minas-gerais-governor-election-winner",
"question": "Will the Minas Gerais Governor Election be decided by October 4, 2026?",
"category": "politics",
"tags": [
"elections",
"politics",
"brazil",
"gubernatorial-race",
"minas-gerais",
"2026"
],
"venues_covered": [
"polymarket"
],
"market_count": 30,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 178538,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "A",
"rcg_score": 93,
"rcg_caps": [],
"resolution_source": null,
"resolution_source_url": "www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes",
"source_status": "platform_named",
"source_of_record": "tse.jus.br",
"resolution_source_list": [
{
"name": "tse.jus.br",
"url": "www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE)",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
{
"name": "www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
}
],
"arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
"proposer_model": "managed_whitelist",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}