Will the Minnesota 2nd Congressional District House Election result in a Republican winner in 2026? [ resolves 2026-11-04 (92D) ]
polymarket: [B] single source·reporting consensus methodology ›
distribution · by outcome · marks: daily snapshot
polymarket 8 markets
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| The Democratic Party | 2026-11-04 | 91.9% | $50 | $8.4K | B | 0x7319fc…ff6f | ||
| The Republican Party | 2026-11-04 | 8.6% | $30 | $10K | B | 0xd74edc…4af7 | ||
| Another party | 2026-11-04 | 0.0% | — | — | B | 0x7289df…40dd | ||
| Will A win the MN-02 House seat | 2026-11-04 | 0.0% | — | — | B | 0x924972…bc37 | ||
| Will B win the MN-02 House seat | 2026-11-04 | 0.0% | — | — | B | 0xfe0b0d…6618 | ||
| Will C win the MN-02 House seat | 2026-11-04 | 0.0% | — | — | B | 0x98618d…b74c | ||
| Will D win the MN-02 House seat | 2026-11-04 | 0.0% | — | — | B | 0x26c852…150c | ||
| Will E win the MN-02 House seat | 2026-11-04 | 0.0% | — | — | B | 0x08a64c…dc0c |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| polymarket | Whitelisted Proposers | not provided | not provided | Optimistic Oracle (UMA) | Other | — |
verbatim rules
polymarket
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MN-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
platform source field
polymarket.resolutionSource → ∅ none returned sources (3) · stated precedence rule
fec.gov venue-listed Federal Election Commission committed source https://www.fec.gov/ from rules text
recent wire items
- MN-02 Democratic hold commands near-certain odds at 91% 91% · $13K 24h
- Polymarket prices Democrats retaining MN-02 at 91%, the market treats this as close to settled.
- 45% of all-time volume landed in 24 hours, the second-highest all-time concentration share in this batch.
- A spike on a 91% contract may reflect late hedgers covering a small Republican-upset tail risk.
- Resolves on the MN-02 House general election result.
- Democratic MN-02 hold commands near-certain odds on fresh volume 91% · $13K 24h
- Polymarket prices a Democratic win in MN-02 at 91%, near-certain status, leaving only slim Republican upset tail.
- 45% of all-time volume cleared in 24 hours, the contract's largest single session.
- Minnesota's 2nd district leans Democratic in post-redistricting maps; fresh volume may reflect candidate or fundraising news.
- Resolves on November 2026 general election certified result for MN-02.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/mn-02-house-election-winner/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/mn-02-house-election-winner |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("mn-02-house-election-winner") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-08-04. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-Y9F1K0F3B5",
"slug": "mn-02-house-election-winner",
"question": "Will the Minnesota 2nd Congressional District House Election result in a Republican winner in 2026?",
"category": "politics",
"tags": [
"politics",
"elections",
"minnesota",
"us-house",
"2026-midterms",
"congressional-races"
],
"venues_covered": [
"polymarket"
],
"market_count": 8,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 18707,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "B",
"rcg_score": 68,
"rcg_caps": [],
"resolution_source": null,
"resolution_source_url": "https://www.fec.gov/",
"source_status": "platform_named",
"source_of_record": "Federal Election Commission",
"resolution_source_list": [
{
"name": "fec.gov",
"url": "https://www.fec.gov/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "Federal Election Commission",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
{
"name": "https://www.fec.gov/",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
}
],
"arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
"proposer_model": "managed_whitelist",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}