Will the Missouri 1st Congressional District Democratic primary margin of victory be within a specific range by 2026? [ resolves 2026-08-04 (0D) ]
polymarket: [A] single source·objective outcome methodology ›
distribution · by strike · marks: daily snapshot
polymarket 11 markets
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Wesley Bell win the MO-01 Democratic primary by 4–8% | 2026-08-04 | 30.0% | $36 | $4.4K | A | 0x4056b1…78ef | ||
| Will Wesley Bell win the MO-01 Democratic primary by 8–12% | 2026-08-04 | 11.4% | — | $1.6K | A | 0xdb42c7…0bd9 | ||
| Will Cori Bush win the MO-01 Democratic primary by 4–8% | 2026-08-04 | 10.0% | $15 | $3.6K | A | 0x67947e…2632 | ||
| ≤ 4% | 2026-08-04 | 10.0% | $65 | $6.9K | A | 0xb70a49…0bae | ||
| ≤ 4% | 2026-08-04 | 10.0% | $436 | $7.0K | A | 0x9e5508…2fda | ||
| Will Wesley Bell win the MO-01 Democratic primary by 12–16% | 2026-08-04 | 3.0% | — | $1.4K | A | 0x13cee2…fe8d | ||
| ≥ 16% | 2026-08-04 | 3.0% | $113 | $1.2K | A | 0xae074a…291b | ||
| Will Cori Bush win the MO-01 Democratic primary by 8–12% | 2026-08-04 | 1.1% | — | $1.2K | A | 0xd48081…f5ee | ||
| Will Cori Bush win the MO-01 Democratic primary by 12–16% | 2026-08-04 | 0.8% | — | $1.1K | A | 0x22ef14…e9ce | ||
| ≥ 16% | 2026-08-04 | 0.7% | — | $1.2K | A | 0x1ddb6e…cbc9 | ||
| Will another outcome occur in the MO-01 Democratic primary | 2026-08-04 | 0.0% | — | — | A | 0x9a0bc1…3822 |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| polymarket | Whitelisted Proposers | not provided | not provided | Optimistic Oracle (UMA) | Other | — |
verbatim rules
polymarket
The MO-01 Democratic primary election is scheduled for August 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the MO-01 Democratic Primary election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher placed bracket (ascending).
If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of Missouri, such as official statewide results published by the Missouri Secretary of State (https://www.sos.mo.gov/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
platform source field
polymarket.resolutionSource → ∅ none returned sources (3) · stated precedence rule
- sos.mo.gov venue-listed
- State of Missouri from rules text · editorial
- Missouri Secretary of State source of record from rules text · editorial
recent wire items
monitoring status: active no active wire
No CM Signal wire has been published for this event yet.
CM Signal’s news-cycle scan surfaces the day’s top stories alongside the prediction markets pricing them. When a story references this event, its wire is published here and links back to this page.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/mo-01-democratic-primary-margin-of-victory-20260724180523163/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/mo-01-democratic-primary-margin-of-victory-20260724180523163 |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("mo-01-democratic-primary-margin-of-victory-20260724180523163") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-08-04. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-78SJV8G4W4",
"slug": "mo-01-democratic-primary-margin-of-victory-20260724180523163",
"question": "Will the Missouri 1st Congressional District Democratic primary margin of victory be within a specific range by 2026?",
"category": "politics",
"tags": [
"politics",
"elections",
"2026-primary",
"missouri",
"democratic-primary",
"margin-of-victory"
],
"venues_covered": [
"polymarket"
],
"market_count": 11,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 29783,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "A",
"rcg_score": 84,
"rcg_caps": [],
"resolution_source": null,
"resolution_source_url": "https://www.sos.mo.gov/",
"source_status": "platform_named",
"source_of_record": "Missouri Secretary of State",
"resolution_source_list": [
{
"name": "sos.mo.gov",
"url": "https://www.sos.mo.gov/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "State of Missouri",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
{
"name": "Missouri Secretary of State",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
}
],
"arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
"proposer_model": "managed_whitelist",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}