Will a Democrat win the Missouri 1st Congressional District primary by August 4, 2026? [ resolves 2026-08-04 (12D) ]
polymarket: [A] single source·objective outcome methodology ›
distribution · by outcome · marks: daily snapshot
polymarket 18 markets
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cori Bush | 2026-08-04 | 58.0% | $962 | $49K | A | 0x74efaa…8528 | ||
| Wesley Bell | 2026-08-04 | 42.0% | $2.7K | $38K | A | 0x0d62a8…140f | ||
| Candidate A | 2026-08-04 | 0.0% | — | — | A | 0xb70199…4b35 | ||
| Candidate B | 2026-08-04 | 0.0% | — | — | A | 0x49b41d…dd99 | ||
| Candidate C | 2026-08-04 | 0.0% | — | — | A | 0x69765c…3145 | ||
| Candidate D | 2026-08-04 | 0.0% | — | — | A | 0x77a2e2…a75f | ||
| Candidate E | 2026-08-04 | 0.0% | — | — | A | 0xd2f261…d9ef | ||
| Candidate F | 2026-08-04 | 0.0% | — | — | A | 0x15f197…23a0 | ||
| Candidate G | 2026-08-04 | 0.0% | — | — | A | 0x353797…55af | ||
| Candidate H | 2026-08-04 | 0.0% | — | — | A | 0x5c12f1…68a3 | ||
| Candidate I | 2026-08-04 | 0.0% | — | — | A | 0x34651c…7701 | ||
| Candidate J | 2026-08-04 | 0.0% | — | — | A | 0xc745c2…29ae | ||
| Candidate K | 2026-08-04 | 0.0% | — | — | A | 0x99ee20…0ef6 | ||
| Candidate L | 2026-08-04 | 0.0% | — | — | A | 0x54a32c…327d | ||
| Candidate M | 2026-08-04 | 0.0% | — | — | A | 0xb18dd8…0bf5 | ||
| Candidate N | 2026-08-04 | 0.0% | — | — | A | 0xe082cf…aa9b | ||
| Candidate O | 2026-08-04 | 0.0% | — | — | A | 0x63e2af…9a2d | ||
| Another candidate | 2026-08-04 | 0.0% | — | — | A | 0x655b6a…0b56 |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| polymarket | Whitelisted Proposers | not provided | not provided | Optimistic Oracle (UMA) | Other | — |
verbatim rules
polymarket
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the MO-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on August 4, 2026.
If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/.
Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
platform source field
polymarket.resolutionSource → ∅ none returned sources (3) · single authority
- democrats.org source of record venue-listed
- https://democrats.org/ from rules text · editorial
- official Democrat sources from rules text · editorial
recent wire items
monitoring status: active no active wire
No CM Signal wire has been published for this event yet.
CM Signal’s news-cycle scan surfaces the day’s top stories alongside the prediction markets pricing them. When a story references this event, its wire is published here and links back to this page.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/mo-01-democratic-primary-winner/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/mo-01-democratic-primary-winner |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("mo-01-democratic-primary-winner") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-07-23. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-5R5JMMDH59",
"slug": "mo-01-democratic-primary-winner",
"question": "Will a Democrat win the Missouri 1st Congressional District primary by August 4, 2026?",
"category": "politics",
"tags": [
"politics",
"elections",
"2026",
"us-primary",
"missouri",
"house-race"
],
"venues_covered": [
"polymarket"
],
"market_count": 18,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 87562,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "A",
"rcg_score": 81,
"rcg_caps": [],
"resolution_source": null,
"resolution_source_url": "https://democrats.org/",
"source_status": "platform_named",
"source_of_record": "democrats.org",
"resolution_source_list": [
{
"name": "democrats.org",
"url": "https://democrats.org/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "https://democrats.org/",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
{
"name": "official Democrat sources",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
}
],
"arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
"proposer_model": "managed_whitelist",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}