Will Mohammed bin Salman be out as leader of Saudi Arabia in 2026? (multi-deadline series) [ resolves 2026-06 – 2026-12 ]
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arabia by September 30, 2026?
polymarket: [C] multiple sources, no tie-break·reporting consensus methodology ›
markets · by resolution date · marks: daily snapshot
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| polymarket | Whitelisted Proposers | uncommitted | not provided | Optimistic Oracle (UMA) | Other | — |
verbatim rules
polymarket
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Crown Prince of Saudi Arabia Mohammed bin Salman ceases to be leader of Saudi Arabia for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An announcement of Mohammed bin Salman's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
If the specified individual is detained, effectively removed from the specified position, or otherwise permanently prevented from fulfilling the duties of the specified position within this market’s timeframe, it will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from Mohammed bin Salman and the government of Saudi Arabia; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
platform source field
polymarket.resolutionSource → ∅ no committed source — see rules text above sources (2)
- official information from Mohammed bin Salman and the government of Saudi Arabia from rules text · editorial
- a consensus of credible reporting from rules text · editorial
resolution history
| outcome | market | venue | resolved | final price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| closed | Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arabia by September 30, 2026? | polymarket | 2026-09-30 | — |
| NO | Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arabia by June 30, 2026? | polymarket | 2026-06-30 | 0% |
Derived from the platform price + resolution-date snapshot (2 resolved markets). PENDING upgrades to a final outcome on the next refresh.
recent wire items
- Heavy flows defend MBS retaining de facto Saudi leadership by December 5% · $51K 24h
- 5% price implies market assigns slim but non-negligible odds MBS exits power by December.
- 24h volume $51K is 77% of all-time handle, effectively a full market repricing in one session.
- Spike suggests fresh geopolitical attention, possibly linked to regional instability or succession rumors.
- Contract resolves December 2026; thin all-time liquidity means even modest flows move the needle.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/mohammed-bin-salman-out-as-leader-of-saudi-arabia-by/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/mohammed-bin-salman-out-as-leader-of-saudi-arabia-by |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("mohammed-bin-salman-out-as-leader-of-saudi-arabia-by") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-07-06. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-7TQCR95JL6",
"slug": "mohammed-bin-salman-out-as-leader-of-saudi-arabia-by",
"question": "Will Mohammed bin Salman be out as leader of Saudi Arabia in 2026? (multi-deadline series)",
"category": "geopolitics",
"tags": [
"geopolitics",
"saudi-arabia",
"leadership-succession",
"middle-east",
"2026"
],
"venues_covered": [
"polymarket"
],
"market_count": 3,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 1704977,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "C",
"rcg_score": 24,
"rcg_caps": [
"multi_source_no_conflict_rule",
"adversarial_ground_truth",
"commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
],
"resolution_source": null,
"resolution_source_url": null,
"source_status": "no_committed_source",
"source_of_record": null,
"resolution_source_list": [
{
"name": "official information from Mohammed bin Salman and the government of Saudi Arabia",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
{
"name": "a consensus of credible reporting",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
}
],
"arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
"proposer_model": "managed_whitelist",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}