Montana Senate Election Winner [ resolves — ]
polymarket: [A] multiple sources, tie-break·objective outcome methodology ›
distribution · by outcome · marks: daily snapshot
polymarket 13 markets
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| The Republicans | — | 99.7% | — | $52K | A | 0xd10319…216d | ||
| An independent | — | 18.0% | — | $11K | A | 0x3b5260…c565 | ||
| The Democrats | — | 1.3% | — | $38K | A | 0x1bbb01…e69b | ||
| Person B | — | 0.0% | — | — | A | 0x5ad416…96f7 | ||
| Person C | — | 0.0% | — | — | A | 0x10dc4c…2853 | ||
| Person D | — | 0.0% | — | — | A | 0x4732e9…b390 | ||
| Person E | — | 0.0% | — | — | A | 0xce1037…2c2e | ||
| Person F | — | 0.0% | — | — | A | 0x787d40…4738 | ||
| Person G | — | 0.0% | — | — | A | 0x61de70…1324 | ||
| Person H | — | 0.0% | — | — | A | 0x347ccd…7fd4 | ||
| Person I | — | 0.0% | — | — | A | 0x9f47c5…5310 | ||
| Person J | — | 0.0% | — | — | A | 0x870f2f…5294 | ||
| A candidate not listed above | — | 0.0% | — | — | A | 0xadf8f9…a5d6 |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| polymarket | Whitelisted Proposers | not provided | not provided | Optimistic Oracle (UMA) | Other | — |
verbatim rules
polymarket
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Montana U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
platform source field
polymarket.resolutionSource → ∅ none returned sources (4) · quorum — multiple sources must agree
Associated Press from rules text Fox News from rules text NBC from rules text official certification from rules text
recent wire items
- Montana GOP Senate odds stay near the top on fresh volume 91% · $80K 24h
- Polymarket prices Republicans at 91% in Montana, the market has priced this as a near-certain GOP hold or pickup.
- 24h volume of $80K equals 25% of all-time flow, consistent with a midterm-eve repricing wave across Senate contracts.
- Montana's partisan shift toward Republicans in recent cycles makes 91% reflect both polling and structural fundamentals.
- Resolves on the 2026 Montana Senate general election result.
- Heavy trading tests the Montana Senate GOP lock at 90% 90% · $61K 24h
- Market prices Republican Montana Senate victory as near-certain at 90%.
- Polymarket records $60.7K in 24h, 33% of all-time volume in one session.
- A 90% price with renewed volume implies traders are stress-testing, not challenging, the consensus.
- Resolves on the 2026 Montana Senate general election outcome.
- Montana Senate goes Republican as odds hold through a volume surge 86% · $49K 24h
- Polymarket prices Republicans winning Montana's 2026 Senate race at 86%, a strong consensus lean.
- $49.1K in 24h equals 29% of all-time volume, steady institutional-scale flow into a high-conviction contract.
- Montana Senate is a top-tier Republican pickup target; fresh volume likely reflects midterm portfolio positioning.
- Resolves after the November 2026 Montana Senate election result.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/montana-senate-election-winner/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/montana-senate-election-winner |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("montana-senate-election-winner") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-08-04. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-QLN52WYLT6",
"slug": "montana-senate-election-winner",
"question": "Montana Senate Election Winner",
"category": "politics",
"tags": [
"elections",
"politics",
"montana",
"senate",
"2026",
"us-elections"
],
"venues_covered": [
"polymarket"
],
"market_count": 13,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 100537,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "A",
"rcg_score": 82,
"rcg_caps": [],
"resolution_source": null,
"resolution_source_url": null,
"source_status": "platform_named",
"source_of_record": null,
"resolution_source_list": [
{
"name": "Associated Press",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
{
"name": "Fox News",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
{
"name": "NBC",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
{
"name": "official certification",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
}
],
"arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
"proposer_model": "managed_whitelist",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}