Will Moonshot publish Kimi K3 weights by July 27? [ resolved 2026-07-27 ]
Moonshot publishes Kimi K3 weights by July 27?
polymarket: [C] single source·objective outcome methodology ›
markets · by resolution date · marks: daily snapshot
polymarket 1 market
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Moonshot publishes Kimi K3 weights by July 27 | 2026-07-27 | 100.0% | $1.5K | $13K | C | 0x92c49d…12d7 |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| polymarket | Whitelisted Proposers | uncommitted | link | Optimistic Oracle (UMA) | Other | — |
verbatim rules
polymarket
Moonshot AI announced that it plans to publish the full model weights for Kimi K3 by July 27, 2026 (see: https://www.kimi.com/blog/kimi-k3).
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Moonshot AI publicly releases the full model weights for Kimi K3 by July 27, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The weights will be considered publicly released if the complete official Kimi K3 model weights are made publicly downloadable.
The release will qualify regardless of any licensing restrictions on acceptable or commercial use, provided the weights are publicly downloadable. Quantized, converted, distilled, partial, or otherwise modified versions released by third parties will not qualify.
A release consisting solely of an API, hosted access, inference code, architecture information, a technical report, or a repository without the complete downloadable weights will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official information and repositories from Moonshot AI. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
platform source field
polymarket.description → https://www.kimi.com/blog/kimi-k3 sources (3)
- kimi.com venue-listed
- official information and repositories from Moonshot AI from rules text · editorial
- a consensus of credible reporting from rules text · editorial
resolution history
| outcome | market | venue | resolved | final price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| YES | Moonshot publishes Kimi K3 weights by July 27? | polymarket | 2026-07-28 | 100% |
Resolution dates are the venue's settlement timestamps (1 resolved market). Rows shown as "by [date]" carry the contract deadline: the venue no longer exposes a settlement time for them. PENDING upgrades to a final outcome on the next refresh.
recent wire items
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CM Signal’s news-cycle scan surfaces the day’s top stories alongside the prediction markets pricing them. When a story references this event, its wire is published here and links back to this page.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/moonshot-publishes-kimi-k3-weights-by-july-27-20260717164254847/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/moonshot-publishes-kimi-k3-weights-by-july-27-20260717164254847 |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("moonshot-publishes-kimi-k3-weights-by-july-27-20260717164254847") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-07-23. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-D8PHV0H0Z7",
"slug": "moonshot-publishes-kimi-k3-weights-by-july-27-20260717164254847",
"question": "Will Moonshot publish Kimi K3 weights by July 27?",
"category": "technology",
"tags": [
"technology",
"ai",
"model-weights",
"moonshot-ai",
"open-source",
"2026"
],
"venues_covered": [
"polymarket"
],
"market_count": 1,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 12665,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "C",
"rcg_score": 71,
"rcg_caps": [
"commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
],
"resolution_source": null,
"resolution_source_url": "https://www.kimi.com/blog/kimi-k3",
"source_status": "no_committed_source",
"source_of_record": null,
"resolution_source_list": [
{
"name": "kimi.com",
"url": "https://www.kimi.com/blog/kimi-k3",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "official information and repositories from Moonshot AI",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
{
"name": "a consensus of credible reporting",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
}
],
"arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
"proposer_model": "managed_whitelist",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}