Will NATO Article 5 be invoked before 2027? [ resolves 2026-12-31 (178D) ]
NATO article 5 before 2027?
polymarket: [C] objective outcome methodology ›
markets · by resolution date · marks: daily snapshot
polymarket 1 market
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NATO article 5 before 2027 | 2026-12-31 | 9.0% | $49 | $91K | C | 0xe7743a…d165 |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| polymarket | Whitelisted Proposers | uncommitted | not provided | Optimistic Oracle (UMA) | Other | — |
verbatim rules
polymarket
If any NATO member country invokes Article 5 of the North Atlantic Treaty at any time between November 5, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from NATO (nato.int), however a consensus of credible media will also suffice.
platform source field
polymarket.resolutionSource → ∅ no committed source — see rules text above sources (3)
- nato.int venue-listed
- NATO (nato.int) from rules text · editorial
- credible media from rules text · editorial
recent wire items
- NATO Article 5 invocation risk holds at deep discount Polymarket 8%
- Polymarket prices only 8% on NATO Article 5 being invoked before 2027, even as Iran strikes US bases hosting NATO-allied forces.
- Attacks on US bases in Kuwait, Bahrain, and Jordan directly implicate allied-hosting nations, yet markets hold the formal collective-defense trigger at a deep discount.
- Markets appear to distinguish between strikes on US-operated bases in allied territory and a formal attack on NATO member soil that would trigger Article 5.
- Polymarket resolves via UMA oracle; the question requires formal Article 5 invocation, not merely allied territory incidents, which narrows the resolution trigger significantly.
- NATO Article 5 invocation before 2027 holds at deep discount Polymarket 5%
- Polymarket prediction market prices only 5% on NATO Article 5 being invoked before 2027.
- Nauseda's public demand for U.S. reassurance signals allied anxiety, but the 5% Polymarket price shows markets are not pricing a near-term invocation.
- Companion Polymarket contract CM-EVT-FD56H0NQ25 prices 99% that Trump attends the NATO summit, suggesting his presence is near-certain even as commitment language is contested.
- Resolves via Polymarket's oracle resolution process based on an official Article 5 invocation by a NATO member.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/nato-article-5-before-2027/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/nato-article-5-before-2027 |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("nato-article-5-before-2027") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-07-06. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-4WNT5S6CN2",
"slug": "nato-article-5-before-2027",
"question": "Will NATO Article 5 be invoked before 2027?",
"category": "geopolitics",
"tags": [
"nato",
"article-5",
"geopolitics",
"military-conflict",
"collective-defense",
"2026"
],
"venues_covered": [
"polymarket"
],
"market_count": 1,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 90728,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "C",
"rcg_score": 72,
"rcg_caps": [
"commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
],
"resolution_source": null,
"resolution_source_url": "nato.int",
"source_status": "no_committed_source",
"source_of_record": null,
"resolution_source_list": [
{
"name": "nato.int",
"url": "nato.int",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "NATO (nato.int)",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
{
"name": "credible media",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
}
],
"arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
"proposer_model": "managed_whitelist",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}