Will the winner of the NC-02 House election be determined by November 2026? [ resolves 2026-11-03 (91D) ]
polymarket: [B] single source·reporting consensus methodology ›
distribution · by outcome · marks: daily snapshot
polymarket 8 markets
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| The Democratic Party | 2026-11-03 | 98.4% | — | $6.3K | B | 0x320148…9791 | ||
| The Republican Party | 2026-11-03 | 2.8% | — | $9.8K | B | 0x4c88ce…f061 | ||
| Another party | 2026-11-03 | 0.0% | — | — | B | 0x394141…ff4c | ||
| Will A win the NC-02 House seat | 2026-11-03 | 0.0% | — | — | B | 0x42637d…8c11 | ||
| Will B win the NC-02 House seat | 2026-11-03 | 0.0% | — | — | B | 0x995912…d047 | ||
| Will C win the NC-02 House seat | 2026-11-03 | 0.0% | — | — | B | 0x6062b5…1a9a | ||
| Will D win the NC-02 House seat | 2026-11-03 | 0.0% | — | — | B | 0x2f45fb…3146 | ||
| Will E win the NC-02 House seat | 2026-11-03 | 0.0% | — | — | B | 0x2627ca…5f0c |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| polymarket | Whitelisted Proposers | not provided | not provided | Optimistic Oracle (UMA) | Other | — |
verbatim rules
polymarket
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NC-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
platform source field
polymarket.resolutionSource → ∅ none returned sources (3) · stated precedence rule
fec.gov venue-listed Federal Election Commission committed source https://www.fec.gov/ from rules text
recent wire items
- NC-02 Democratic win draws bulk of all-time volume today 98% · $11K 24h
- Polymarket prices a Democratic NC-02 House win at 98%, the seat is treated as a done deal.
- 64% of all-time volume on this contract traded in the past 24 hours, an extreme concentration event.
- Thin overall liquidity amplifies the all-time share; still, the sudden interest warrants a check for redistricting or candidate news.
- Resolves on the 2026 NC-02 House general election result.
- NC-02 Democrats hold at 98% as volume surges on a safe seat 98% · $11K 24h
- Polymarket prices Democrats at 98% to win North Carolina's 2nd House seat, the market treats this as effectively settled.
- $11K in 24h equals 64% of all-time contract volume, the single dominant session in the contract's history.
- NC-02 is a Democratic-leaning district; concentrated late volume at 98% likely reflects settlement arbitrage or cleanup flow.
- Contract resolves on the November 2026 NC-02 House general election.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/nc-02-house-election-winner/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/nc-02-house-election-winner |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("nc-02-house-election-winner") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-08-04. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-5J1SZPC334",
"slug": "nc-02-house-election-winner",
"question": "Will the winner of the NC-02 House election be determined by November 2026?",
"category": "politics",
"tags": [
"politics",
"elections",
"us-house",
"north-carolina",
"2026",
"electoral-outcome"
],
"venues_covered": [
"polymarket"
],
"market_count": 8,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 16023,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "B",
"rcg_score": 68,
"rcg_caps": [],
"resolution_source": null,
"resolution_source_url": "https://www.fec.gov/",
"source_status": "platform_named",
"source_of_record": "Federal Election Commission",
"resolution_source_list": [
{
"name": "fec.gov",
"url": "https://www.fec.gov/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "Federal Election Commission",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
{
"name": "https://www.fec.gov/",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
}
],
"arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
"proposer_model": "managed_whitelist",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}