NC-04 House Election Winner [ resolves 2026-11-03 (91D) ]
polymarket: [B] single source·reporting consensus methodology ›
distribution · by outcome · marks: daily snapshot
polymarket 8 markets
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| The Democratic Party | 2026-11-03 | 93.0% | — | $14K | B | 0xd1e07f…72f8 | ||
| The Republican Party | 2026-11-03 | 4.7% | — | $11K | B | 0xe29af2…2cf2 | ||
| Another party | 2026-11-03 | 0.0% | — | — | B | 0x631352…5573 | ||
| Will A win the NC-04 House seat | 2026-11-03 | 0.0% | — | — | B | 0x633e91…fc05 | ||
| Will B win the NC-04 House seat | 2026-11-03 | 0.0% | — | — | B | 0x913e1b…eefb | ||
| Will C win the NC-04 House seat | 2026-11-03 | 0.0% | — | — | B | 0xde9cb2…a297 | ||
| Will D win the NC-04 House seat | 2026-11-03 | 0.0% | — | — | B | 0x6cff9f…37ad | ||
| Will E win the NC-04 House seat | 2026-11-03 | 0.0% | — | — | B | 0xa42704…3960 |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| polymarket | Whitelisted Proposers | not provided | not provided | Optimistic Oracle (UMA) | Other | — |
verbatim rules
polymarket
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NC-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
platform source field
polymarket.resolutionSource → ∅ none returned sources (3) · stated precedence rule
fec.gov venue-listed Federal Election Commission committed source https://www.fec.gov/ from rules text
recent wire items
- Traders pile into NC-04 as a near-certain Democratic hold 5% · $33K 24h
- Republicans priced at 5%, market treats this newly redrawn seat as safely Democratic.
- 24h volume of $33K equals 49% of all-time, large single-session commitment relative to contract history.
- NC-04 redrawn post-redistricting; surge may reflect traders confirming Democratic baseline ahead of filing deadlines.
- Resolves on November 2026 general election result for NC-04.
- NC-04 Republican odds hold near the floor on fresh volume 5% · $33K 24h
- Polymarket prices a Republican win at 5%, reflecting NC-04 as a strong Democratic district with minimal GOP path.
- 49% of all-time volume, $33K, traded in 24 hours, marking a notable attention spike.
- Fresh activity at depressed odds suggests the market is stress-testing the Democratic lean rather than pricing a shift.
- Resolves on NC-04 House race result; 5% leaves a small but nonzero tail risk priced.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/nc-04-house-election-winner/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/nc-04-house-election-winner |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("nc-04-house-election-winner") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-08-04. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-NWW6JR41T9",
"slug": "nc-04-house-election-winner",
"question": "NC-04 House Election Winner",
"category": "politics",
"tags": [
"politics",
"elections",
"us-house",
"north-carolina",
"2026-election",
"congressional-race"
],
"venues_covered": [
"polymarket"
],
"market_count": 8,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 24618,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "B",
"rcg_score": 68,
"rcg_caps": [],
"resolution_source": null,
"resolution_source_url": "https://www.fec.gov/",
"source_status": "platform_named",
"source_of_record": "Federal Election Commission",
"resolution_source_list": [
{
"name": "fec.gov",
"url": "https://www.fec.gov/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "Federal Election Commission",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
{
"name": "https://www.fec.gov/",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
}
],
"arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
"proposer_model": "managed_whitelist",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}