NC-08 House Election Winner [ resolves 2026-11-03 (91D) ]
polymarket: [B] single source·reporting consensus methodology ›
distribution · by outcome · marks: daily snapshot
polymarket 8 markets
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| The Republican Party | 2026-11-03 | 96.2% | — | $6.7K | B | 0xa4b1d5…f5df | ||
| The Democratic Party | 2026-11-03 | 13.0% | — | $12K | B | 0xc003ee…4877 | ||
| Another party | 2026-11-03 | 0.0% | — | — | B | 0x91956f…2fd3 | ||
| Will A win the NC-08 House seat | 2026-11-03 | 0.0% | — | — | B | 0x821b9e…6cc7 | ||
| Will B win the NC-08 House seat | 2026-11-03 | 0.0% | — | — | B | 0x2c97af…14b9 | ||
| Will C win the NC-08 House seat | 2026-11-03 | 0.0% | — | — | B | 0xa5c6d3…ac2e | ||
| Will D win the NC-08 House seat | 2026-11-03 | 0.0% | — | — | B | 0x90999c…b991 | ||
| Will E win the NC-08 House seat | 2026-11-03 | 0.0% | — | — | B | 0x590498…09be |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| polymarket | Whitelisted Proposers | not provided | not provided | Optimistic Oracle (UMA) | Other | — |
verbatim rules
polymarket
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NC-08 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
platform source field
polymarket.resolutionSource → ∅ none returned sources (3) · stated precedence rule
fec.gov venue-listed Federal Election Commission committed source https://www.fec.gov/ from rules text
recent wire items
- Republicans priced at 97% to hold NC-08 on fresh volume 97% · $11K 24h
- Polymarket prices Republicans at 97% in NC-08, near-certain hold, with minimal priced risk.
- $11K in 24h is 40% of all-time contract volume; late-cycle flow into a decided race flags position cleanup.
- NC-08 has trended reliably Republican; volume at 97% mirrors the TX-04/GA-11 safe-seat pattern today.
- Resolves on the November 2026 House election result.
- NC-08 Republican hold near certain as volume builds late 96% · $11K 24h
- Polymarket prices Republican retention of NC-08 at 96%, leaving almost no room for a Democratic upset.
- 40% of all-time volume cleared in 24 hours, compressing meaningful lifetime activity into one session.
- Late money at near-certainty odds typically reflects closing out opposing positions rather than new directional conviction.
- Resolves on the NC-08 general election result.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/nc-08-house-election-winner/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/nc-08-house-election-winner |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("nc-08-house-election-winner") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-08-04. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-M48NB8LSF4",
"slug": "nc-08-house-election-winner",
"question": "NC-08 House Election Winner",
"category": "politics",
"tags": [
"politics",
"elections",
"us-house",
"north-carolina",
"2026",
"congress"
],
"venues_covered": [
"polymarket"
],
"market_count": 8,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 18769,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "B",
"rcg_score": 68,
"rcg_caps": [],
"resolution_source": null,
"resolution_source_url": "https://www.fec.gov/",
"source_status": "platform_named",
"source_of_record": "Federal Election Commission",
"resolution_source_list": [
{
"name": "fec.gov",
"url": "https://www.fec.gov/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "Federal Election Commission",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
{
"name": "https://www.fec.gov/",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
}
],
"arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
"proposer_model": "managed_whitelist",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}