Who will win the NC-11 House election? [ resolves 2026-11-04 (92D) ]
polymarket: [B] single source·reporting consensus methodology ›
distribution · by outcome · marks: daily snapshot
polymarket 8 markets
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Another party | 2026-11-04 | 0.0% | — | — | B | 0xde573b…5b29 | ||
| Will A win the NC-11 House seat | 2026-11-04 | 0.0% | — | — | B | 0x5a8022…04ec | ||
| Will B win the NC-11 House seat | 2026-11-04 | 0.0% | — | — | B | 0x848b9e…bd48 | ||
| Will C win the NC-11 House seat | 2026-11-04 | 0.0% | — | — | B | 0xca065e…1762 | ||
| Will D win the NC-11 House seat | 2026-11-04 | 0.0% | — | — | B | 0xe635f0…c9b3 | ||
| Will E win the NC-11 House seat | 2026-11-04 | 0.0% | — | — | B | 0x16a658…ec0a | ||
| The Democratic Party | 2026-11-04 | 100.0% | — | $5.0K | B | 0x7fd71c…e42a | ||
| The Republican Party | 2026-11-04 | 0.0% | — | $5.3K | B | 0xe64ec5…11df |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| polymarket | Whitelisted Proposers | not provided | not provided | Optimistic Oracle (UMA) | Other | — |
verbatim rules
polymarket
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NC-11 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
platform source field
polymarket.resolutionSource → ∅ none returned sources (2) · stated precedence rule
resolution history
| outcome | market | venue | resolved | final price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| YES | Will the Democratic Party win the NC-11 House seat? | polymarket | 2026-11-04 | 100% |
| NO | Will the Republican Party win the NC-11 House seat? | polymarket | 2026-11-04 | 0% |
Resolution dates are the venue's settlement timestamps (2 resolved markets). Rows shown as "by [date]" carry the contract deadline: the venue no longer exposes a settlement time for them. PENDING upgrades to a final outcome on the next refresh.
recent wire items
- Heavy trading bets against GOP holding NC-11 14% · $129K 24h
- 14% implies the market treats a Republican win as a heavy underdog outcome in NC-11.
- $129K traded in 24h, 75% of all-time contract volume, signaling a near-climactic rush.
- Pairing with Spike 2 (Dems at 86%) shows coordinated positioning across both sides of NC-11.
- Resolves on NC-11 House election result; volume surge days before Nov 3 midterm cycle.
- Democrats lead NC-11 at 86% through a volume surge 86% · $72K 24h
- 86% prices the Democratic candidate as a solid frontrunner in North Carolina's 11th district.
- $72K in 24h equals 65% of all-time contract volume, most of the market's lifetime traded today.
- Mirrors Spike 0: both sides of NC-11 are seeing simultaneous high activity, rare for a House race.
- Resolution tied to certified NC-11 election result.
- NC-11 Republican long shot holds at 14% 14% · $129K 24h
- Polymarket prices Republicans out of NC-11 at just 14%, signaling near-certain Democratic hold.
- 24h volume of $129K is 75% of all-time, the bulk of lifetime liquidity arrived today.
- Surge this close to Election Day suggests final-day positioning, not speculative drift.
- Contract resolves on NC-11 House race outcome; election day imminent.
- Democrats backed heavily in NC-11 as odds hit 84% 84% · $72K 24h
- Polymarket prices Democrats winning NC-11 at 84%, the mirror of the 14% Republican contract.
- 24h volume of $72K is 65% of all-time, most NC-11 Democratic liquidity landed today.
- Cross-contract activity on both NC-11 sides points to arbitrage or spread-locking near close.
- Resolves on NC-11 House race; note companion Spike 0 for Republican side.
- NC-11 Republican odds slip to long-shot territory 17% · $17K 24h
- Polymarket prices Republican NC-11 win at just 17%, flagging the seat as strongly Democratic-leaning.
- 24h volume of $17K is a striking 56% of the contract's entire all-time handle, signaling a sharp attention spike.
- Over half of lifetime volume arriving in one session points to a recent polling release or ballot development driving reassessment.
- NC-11 and its Democratic counterpart (Spike 2) are trading simultaneously, the paired flow confirms a directional repricing event.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/nc-11-house-election-winner/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/nc-11-house-election-winner |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("nc-11-house-election-winner") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-08-04. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-DFRWVBVQ98",
"slug": "nc-11-house-election-winner",
"question": "Who will win the NC-11 House election?",
"category": "politics",
"tags": [
"politics",
"elections",
"us-house",
"north-carolina",
"2026",
"election-prediction"
],
"venues_covered": [
"polymarket"
],
"market_count": 8,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 10307,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "B",
"rcg_score": 68,
"rcg_caps": [],
"resolution_source": null,
"resolution_source_url": "https://www.fec.gov/",
"source_status": "platform_named",
"source_of_record": "Federal Election Commission",
"resolution_source_list": [
{
"name": "fec.gov",
"url": "https://www.fec.gov/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/)",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
}
],
"arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
"proposer_model": "managed_whitelist",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}