Will there be negative GDP growth in 2026? [ resolves 2027-01-29 (178D) ]
Negative GDP growth in 2026?
polymarket: [A] single source·objective outcome methodology ›
markets · by resolution date · marks: daily snapshot
polymarket 1 market
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Negative GDP growth in 2026 | 2027-01-29 | 3.8% | — | $32K | A | 0xd8c1b0…edf1 |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| polymarket | Whitelisted Proposers | not provided | link | Optimistic Oracle (UMA) | Other | — |
verbatim rules
polymarket
This market will resolve to 'Yes' if the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP growth rate for the full year 2026, as derived from the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, with a release by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) expected in January 2027, reports a growth rate below 0. Otherwise, this market will resolve to 'No'.
The GDP release will be available at: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product.
Only the first available GDP report labeled as the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, which provides the initial full-year 2026 GDP growth rate, will be used for resolution. Any subsequent revisions or updates to the data will not be considered.
platform source field
polymarket.description → https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product sources (2) · single authority
recent wire items
- Negative US GDP in 2026 remains a long shot at 2 percent Polymarket 2%
- Polymarket puts only 2% on negative US GDP growth in 2026, via UMA oracle resolution.
- The Q2 upward revision to 2.2% is consistent with the near-zero probability the prediction market assigns to a full-year contraction.
- The September jobs miss of 29,000 is a Q4 headwind but does not materially shift the annual contraction calculus given the strong Q2 base.
- Companion Polymarket contract on Republican winning Oklahoma 3rd CD at 97% shares the UMA oracle resolver but carries no macro relevance as a cross-check.
- Negative GDP growth in 2026 stays a long shot Polymarket 2%
- Polymarket puts only 2% on negative GDP growth occurring in 2026, a near-zero probability outcome.
- The Q2 GDP upward revision to 2.2% is directly consistent with the contract's near-zero pricing of a contraction.
- Despite a weak September jobs print of 29,000, the GDP revision suggests underlying output strength the market is crediting.
- Resolution via UMA oracle based on official BEA GDP data; any revision deeper into negative territory for any 2026 quarter would be required.
- Negative US GDP growth in 2026 stays a long shot at 2 percent Polymarket 2%
- Polymarket puts only 2% odds on negative U.S. GDP growth in 2026, a near-certainty of continued positive annual growth.
- The 2.2% Q2 upward revision is fully consistent with this pricing; the market shows no disagreement with the official data.
- With Q2 revised higher and August PCE inflation coming in softer than expected, the stagflation risk narrative finds little support in current prices.
- Resolves via UMA oracle; a full-year negative print would require a severe second-half contraction from a 2.2% Q2 baseline, which the market sees as remote.
- US negative GDP in 2026 remains a low-conviction fringe bet Polymarket 8%
- Polymarket prices only an 8% chance the United States records negative GDP growth in 2026.
- Despite June payrolls missing badly at 57,000, the market treats a full-year GDP contraction as a tail risk, not a base case.
- At 8%, the market is not fading the weak labor data outright, it is absorbing it while keeping recession pricing low.
- Resolves via the Bureau of Economic Analysis (bea.gov) full-year GDP report; negative growth requires two or more quarters of contraction to register annually.
- US negative GDP growth in 2026 anchors at low-probability despite soft data Polymarket 10%
- Polymarket prices US negative GDP growth in 2026 at just 10%, despite the May real spending contraction.
- The weak spending data is not consistent with a market that prices recession as a low-probability tail event.
- The US unemployment ladder implies a rate near 4.2-4.3%, with jobless claims historically low, offering the labor market as an offset to the soft spending signal.
- Resolution is via BEA full-year 2026 GDP data; a single quarter of negative growth does not necessarily satisfy the annual negative growth condition.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/negative-gdp-growth-in-2026/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/negative-gdp-growth-in-2026 |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("negative-gdp-growth-in-2026") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-08-04. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-36YHF72CQ8",
"slug": "negative-gdp-growth-in-2026",
"question": "Will there be negative GDP growth in 2026?",
"category": "economics",
"tags": [
"economics",
"macro-single",
"economy",
"gdp-recession",
"2026-economic-data",
"annual-growth"
],
"venues_covered": [
"polymarket"
],
"market_count": 1,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 31785,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "A",
"rcg_score": 93,
"rcg_caps": [],
"resolution_source": null,
"resolution_source_url": "https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product",
"source_status": "platform_named",
"source_of_record": "U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA)",
"resolution_source_list": [
{
"name": "bea.gov",
"url": "https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA)",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
}
],
"arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
"proposer_model": "managed_whitelist",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}