Will Benjamin Netanyahu be out of office by the end of 2026? [ resolves 2026-04 – 2026-12 ]
Netanyahu out by end of 2026?
polymarket: [C] multiple sources, no tie-break·reporting consensus methodology ›
distribution · by resolution date · marks: daily snapshot
polymarket 5 markets
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| March 31 | 2026-04-05 | 0.1% | — | $104.21M | C | 0x7cb525…3ae7 | ||
| April 30 | 2026-05-01 | 0.1% | — | $9.58M | C | 0xb37e5f…8a4d | ||
| May 31 | 2026-06-01 | 0.1% | — | $821K | C | 0x73a4b0…4112 | ||
| June 30 | 2026-06-30 | 0.0% | $55K | $6.08M | C | 0x865303…3cce | ||
| End of 2026 | 2026-12-31 | 55.0% | $1.9K | $1.47M | C | 0xd1796c…8c96 |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| polymarket | Whitelisted Proposers | uncommitted | not provided | Optimistic Oracle (UMA) | Other | — |
verbatim rules
polymarket
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Benjamin Netanyahu ceases to be Prime Minister of Israel for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An announcement of Benjamin Netanyahu's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from Benjamin Netanyahu and the government of Israel; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
platform source field
polymarket.resolutionSource → ∅ no committed source — see rules text above sources (2)
- official information from Benjamin Netanyahu and the government of Israel from rules text · editorial
- a consensus of credible reporting from rules text · editorial
resolution history
| outcome | market | venue | resolved | final price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NO | Netanyahu out by June 30? | polymarket | 2026-06-30 | 0% |
| closed | Netanyahu out by May 31? | polymarket | 2026-06-01 | — |
| closed | Netanyahu out by April 30? | polymarket | 2026-05-01 | — |
| closed | Netanyahu out by March 31? | polymarket | 2026-04-05 | — |
Derived from the platform price + resolution-date snapshot (4 resolved markets). PENDING upgrades to a final outcome on the next refresh.
recent wire items
monitoring status: active no active wire
No CM Signal wire has been published for this event yet.
CM Signal’s news-cycle scan surfaces the day’s top stories alongside the prediction markets pricing them. When a story references this event, its wire is published here and links back to this page.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/netanyahu-out-before-2027/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/netanyahu-out-before-2027 |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("netanyahu-out-before-2027") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-07-06. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-LTD4KR3MF4",
"slug": "netanyahu-out-before-2027",
"question": "Will Benjamin Netanyahu be out of office by the end of 2026?",
"category": "geopolitics",
"tags": [
"geopolitics",
"politics",
"israel",
"leadership-transition",
"2026",
"parliamentary-politics"
],
"venues_covered": [
"polymarket"
],
"market_count": 5,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 122153644,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "C",
"rcg_score": 40,
"rcg_caps": [
"multi_source_no_conflict_rule",
"commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
],
"resolution_source": null,
"resolution_source_url": null,
"source_status": "no_committed_source",
"source_of_record": null,
"resolution_source_list": [
{
"name": "official information from Benjamin Netanyahu and the government of Israel",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
{
"name": "a consensus of credible reporting",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
}
],
"arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
"proposer_model": "managed_whitelist",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}