Will the Nevada governor election be won by the Republican candidate? [ resolves — ]
polymarket: [A] multiple sources, tie-break·objective outcome methodology ›
distribution · by outcome · marks: daily snapshot
polymarket 13 markets
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| The Democrats | — | 73.0% | $22 | $11K | A | 0x707eb5…7180 | ||
| The Republicans | — | 44.0% | $41 | $31K | A | 0xb63fbd…95c5 | ||
| Option A | — | 0.0% | — | — | A | 0x5fcfaa…0f18 | ||
| Option B | — | 0.0% | — | — | A | 0xdc8f87…cb7f | ||
| Option C | — | 0.0% | — | — | A | 0xfc2745…0794 | ||
| Option D | — | 0.0% | — | — | A | 0xbfa538…f738 | ||
| Option E | — | 0.0% | — | — | A | 0x97670a…433a | ||
| Option F | — | 0.0% | — | — | A | 0x56badc…c0b7 | ||
| Option G | — | 0.0% | — | — | A | 0x2f5d36…25ad | ||
| Option H | — | 0.0% | — | — | A | 0xa82618…fc03 | ||
| Option I | — | 0.0% | — | — | A | 0x77027b…4cba | ||
| Option J | — | 0.0% | — | — | A | 0xc51d2a…2a9f | ||
| Other | — | 0.0% | — | — | A | 0x3a76f1…eb6e |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| polymarket | Whitelisted Proposers | not provided | not provided | Optimistic Oracle (UMA) | Other | — |
verbatim rules
polymarket
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Nevada gubernatorial election.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
platform source field
polymarket.resolutionSource → ∅ none returned sources (4) · quorum — multiple sources must agree
Associated Press from rules text Fox News from rules text NBC from rules text official certification from rules text
recent wire items
- Democrats hold a modest lead in Nevada governor betting on Polymarket 55% · $66K 24h
- Polymarket prices Democrats at 55%, a clearer lean than the Kalshi contract, though still within a competitive range.
- $66K traded in 24h accounts for 36% of all-time volume on this contract.
- Simultaneous spikes on both the Kalshi and Polymarket Nevada governor contracts suggest new polling or candidate news is pulling cross-venue attention.
- Resolves on the 2026 Nevada gubernatorial election outcome.
- Nevada governor: buying picks up on Democrats at 56% 56% · $63K 24h
- Polymarket prices Nevada Democrats at 56%, close to Kalshi's 54%, markets broadly aligned.
- $63K in 24h is 35% of all-time volume on Polymarket's version of the same race.
- Cross-venue activity on the same contract is a strong sign of informed, arbitrage-aware flow.
- Resolves on the 2026 Nevada gubernatorial election.
- Nevada governor race sits at a 54% toss-up 54% · $54K 24h
- Polymarket prices Democrats at 54% in Nevada's 2026 governor race, effectively a coin flip.
- 46% of all-time volume cleared in one session, making this one of the contract's most active days.
- A near-even market this early signals genuine uncertainty about both party nominees.
- Resolves on Nevada 2026 general election night.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/nevada-governor-winner-2026/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/nevada-governor-winner-2026 |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("nevada-governor-winner-2026") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-08-04. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-Q7DX7L87P0",
"slug": "nevada-governor-winner-2026",
"question": "Will the Nevada governor election be won by the Republican candidate?",
"category": "politics",
"tags": [
"politics",
"elections",
"nevada",
"governor-race",
"us-2026",
"electoral-outcome"
],
"venues_covered": [
"polymarket"
],
"market_count": 13,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 41352,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "A",
"rcg_score": 82,
"rcg_caps": [],
"resolution_source": null,
"resolution_source_url": null,
"source_status": "platform_named",
"source_of_record": null,
"resolution_source_list": [
{
"name": "Associated Press",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
{
"name": "Fox News",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
{
"name": "NBC",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
{
"name": "official certification",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
}
],
"arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
"proposer_model": "managed_whitelist",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}