Will a new Gemini flagship be released by May 22, 2026? [ resolves 2026-05 – 2026-06 ]
Will a new Gemini flagship be released by June 19, 2026?
polymarket: [C] single source·reporting consensus methodology ›
distribution · by resolution date
polymarket 7 markets
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will a new Gemini flagship be released by May 8, 2026 | 2026-05-08 | 0.1% | — | $3.9K | C | 0xdbf47a…df3f | ||
| Will a new Gemini flagship be released by May 15, 2026 | 2026-05-15 | 0.2% | — | $15K | C | 0xe8998e…eb58 | ||
| Will a new Gemini flagship be released by May 22, 2026 | 2026-05-22 | 0.1% | — | $121K | C | 0x485d75…8401 | ||
| Will a new Gemini flagship be released by May 31, 2026 | 2026-05-31 | 0.6% | — | $120K | C | 0xfae1c6…e3fa | ||
| Will a new Gemini flagship be released by June 12, 2026 | 2026-06-12 | 15.0% | $516 | $516 | C | 0x8131f4…9e28 | ||
| Will a new Gemini flagship be released by June 19, 2026 | 2026-06-19 | 61.0% | $307 | $307 | C | 0x8d7fe5…9e0c | ||
| Will a new Gemini flagship be released by June 30, 2026 | 2026-06-30 | 80.0% | $1.7K | $13K | C | 0x55531f…a11a |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| polymarket | Whitelisted Proposers | uncommitted | not provided | Optimistic Oracle (UMA) | Other | — |
verbatim rules
polymarket
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Google releases or makes available a new Gemini reasoning flagship model to the general public by the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Qualifying models must be positioned by Google as a next-generation, reasoning-focused flagship within the Gemini model line. For example, qualifying models include newly released or newly made generally available (GA) reasoning-focused flagship models (e.g, Gemini 3.1 GA), or any new Pro, Deep Think, or Ultra variants (e.g., Gemini 3.2 Pro, Gemini 3.4 Deep Think, Gemini 4 Ultra).
Models explicitly positioned for speed, efficiency, or low-cost inference that compromise reasoning capability will NOT qualify. This includes, but is not limited to, variants such as Gemini Flash, Flash-lite, Nano, or similar lightweight or latency-optimized models, even if released under a new Gemini version number.
Specialized models for non-text modalities such as video generation (e.g., Veo), image generation (e.g., Imagen, Nano Banana), music generation (e.g., Lyria), or robotics (e.g., Gemini Robotics) will NOT qualify, even if released under a qualifying Gemini version number.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
platform source field
polymarket.resolutionSource → ∅ no committed source — see rules text above recent wire items
monitoring status: active no active wire
No CM Signal wire has been published for this event yet.
CM Signal’s news-cycle scan surfaces the day’s top stories alongside the prediction markets pricing them. When a story references this event, its wire is published here and links back to this page.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
AI grounded search reads embedded JSON-LD in HTML. Developers query REST. Agentic AI clients (Claude Desktop, Cursor) call MCP tools. AI crawlers index via /llms.txt. Same canonical record at every surface.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/new-gemini-reasoning-flagship-released-by/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/new-gemini-reasoning-flagship-released-by.json |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("new-gemini-reasoning-flagship-released-by") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-06-03. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-43HYTGHWR5",
"slug": "new-gemini-reasoning-flagship-released-by",
"question": "Will a new Gemini flagship be released by May 22, 2026?",
"category": "technology",
"tags": [
"technology",
"ai",
"tech",
"google-gemini",
"large-language-models",
"product-release"
],
"venues_covered": [
"polymarket"
],
"market_count": 7,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 274424,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "C",
"rcg_score": 38,
"rcg_caps": [],
"resolution_source": null,
"resolution_source_url": null,
"arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
"proposer_model": "managed_whitelist",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}