Will Labour finish in second place in the 2026 New Zealand general election? [ resolves 2026-11-07 (95D) ]
polymarket: [A] single source·objective outcome methodology ›
distribution · by outcome · marks: daily snapshot
polymarket 33 markets
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| National Party | 2026-11-07 | 62.0% | — | $8.2K | A | 0x5fe6c1…bea7 | ||
| Labour Party | 2026-11-07 | 37.0% | — | $3.3K | A | 0xe9cb48…e483 | ||
| New Zealand First Party | 2026-11-07 | 0.5% | — | $1.3K | A | 0x12781e…97a4 | ||
| Green Party | 2026-11-07 | 0.2% | — | $542 | A | 0xc62acc…5eb2 | ||
| ACT New Zealand | 2026-11-07 | 0.2% | — | $1.2K | A | 0xf1dc41…1369 | ||
| Te Pāti Māori | 2026-11-07 | 0.2% | — | $1.2K | A | 0x8936b7…a911 | ||
| Party A | 2026-11-07 | 0.0% | — | — | A | 0xdf3ee1…d4e6 | ||
| Party B | 2026-11-07 | 0.0% | — | — | A | 0x82725d…1965 | ||
| Party C | 2026-11-07 | 0.0% | — | — | A | 0x846b4d…c05f | ||
| Party D | 2026-11-07 | 0.0% | — | — | A | 0xf0c097…312a | ||
| Party E | 2026-11-07 | 0.0% | — | — | A | 0x2a0f53…057f | ||
| Party F | 2026-11-07 | 0.0% | — | — | A | 0x8d9569…7e5d | ||
| Party G | 2026-11-07 | 0.0% | — | — | A | 0x6ae7da…21fa | ||
| Party H | 2026-11-07 | 0.0% | — | — | A | 0xe7278e…a4a0 | ||
| Party I | 2026-11-07 | 0.0% | — | — | A | 0x63b3ed…99bf | ||
| Party J | 2026-11-07 | 0.0% | — | — | A | 0x854e6c…3022 | ||
| Party K | 2026-11-07 | 0.0% | — | — | A | 0x325884…80ae | ||
| Party L | 2026-11-07 | 0.0% | — | — | A | 0x64028f…aec0 | ||
| Party M | 2026-11-07 | 0.0% | — | — | A | 0x2e1a03…0f84 | ||
| Party N | 2026-11-07 | 0.0% | — | — | A | 0xe59790…6025 | ||
| Party O | 2026-11-07 | 0.0% | — | — | A | 0x886427…18b9 | ||
| Party P | 2026-11-07 | 0.0% | — | — | A | 0x7e241a…7794 | ||
| Party Q | 2026-11-07 | 0.0% | — | — | A | 0xd73e88…80e9 | ||
| Party R | 2026-11-07 | 0.0% | — | — | A | 0xd070bd…e6a0 | ||
| Party S | 2026-11-07 | 0.0% | — | — | A | 0x3abd7f…7fbf | ||
| Party T | 2026-11-07 | 0.0% | — | — | A | 0x2d0d8e…3b67 | ||
| Party U | 2026-11-07 | 0.0% | — | — | A | 0x96b197…1780 | ||
| Party V | 2026-11-07 | 0.0% | — | — | A | 0x20e23d…b8a9 | ||
| Party W | 2026-11-07 | 0.0% | — | — | A | 0x40ff89…e609 | ||
| Party X | 2026-11-07 | 0.0% | — | — | A | 0xef9a23…4294 | ||
| Party Y | 2026-11-07 | 0.0% | — | — | A | 0xc99cd1…7fa4 | ||
| Party Z | 2026-11-07 | 0.0% | — | — | A | 0x408c7b…913c | ||
| Another party | 2026-11-07 | 0.0% | — | — | A | 0x77d6f7…9a7f |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| polymarket | Whitelisted Proposers | not provided | not provided | Optimistic Oracle (UMA) | Other | — |
verbatim rules
polymarket
A general election is scheduled to be held in New Zealand on November 7, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the second-greatest number of seats in the New Zealand House of Representatives as a result of this election.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The named parties or coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more parties are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid party list votes received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If parties remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed party name. This market will resolve to the party that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the New Zealand House of Representatives in this election.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by New Zealand government sources such as the New Zealand Electoral Commission (https://elections.nz/).
platform source field
polymarket.resolutionSource → ∅ none returned sources (2) · stated precedence rule
- elections.nz venue-listed
- New Zealand Electoral Commission source of record from rules text · editorial
recent wire items
monitoring status: active no active wire
No CM Signal wire has been published for this event yet.
CM Signal’s news-cycle scan surfaces the day’s top stories alongside the prediction markets pricing them. When a story references this event, its wire is published here and links back to this page.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/new-zealand-election-2nd-place-393/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/new-zealand-election-2nd-place-393 |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("new-zealand-election-2nd-place-393") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-08-04. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-RYWCNFSH24",
"slug": "new-zealand-election-2nd-place-393",
"question": "Will Labour finish in second place in the 2026 New Zealand general election?",
"category": "politics",
"tags": [
"politics",
"elections",
"new-zealand",
"2026",
"parliamentary-seats",
"second-place"
],
"venues_covered": [
"polymarket"
],
"market_count": 33,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 15759,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "A",
"rcg_score": 84,
"rcg_caps": [],
"resolution_source": null,
"resolution_source_url": "https://elections.nz/",
"source_status": "platform_named",
"source_of_record": "New Zealand Electoral Commission",
"resolution_source_list": [
{
"name": "elections.nz",
"url": "https://elections.nz/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "New Zealand Electoral Commission",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
}
],
"arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
"proposer_model": "managed_whitelist",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}