Will New Zealand election turnout exceed 80% in the next election? [ resolves 2026-11-07 (95D) ]
polymarket: [A] single source·objective outcome methodology ›
distribution · by strike · marks: daily snapshot
polymarket 6 markets
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Between 76% and 78% | 2026-11-07 | 30.0% | — | $3.9K | A | 0x345c72…86fc | ||
| Between 78% and 80% | 2026-11-07 | 29.0% | $2.1K | $6.9K | A | 0xd46660…fab2 | ||
| Between 80% and 82% | 2026-11-07 | 25.0% | $71 | $5.0K | A | 0x2fbc51…d216 | ||
| ≤ 76% | 2026-11-07 | 5.0% | $181 | $981 | A | 0x79ef37…c66f | ||
| ≥ 84% | 2026-11-07 | 9.8% | — | $687 | A | 0x512e57…e6a4 | ||
| Between 82% and 84% | 2026-11-07 | 0.2% | — | $1.1K | A | 0xbb0105…8916 |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| polymarket | Whitelisted Proposers | not provided | not provided | Optimistic Oracle (UMA) | Other | — |
verbatim rules
polymarket
A general election is scheduled to be held in New Zealand on November 7, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the official voter turnout rate for the 2026 New Zealand general election, defined as the total number of votes cast divided by the total number of enrolled voters (votes cast to electors on master roll, combined total of General and Māori electorate).
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official election results reported by the New Zealand Electoral Commission (https://elections.nz/); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used if official results are not available.
platform source field
polymarket.resolutionSource → ∅ none returned sources (3) · stated precedence rule
- elections.nz venue-listed
- New Zealand Electoral Commission source of record from rules text · editorial
- https://elections.nz/ from rules text · editorial
recent wire items
monitoring status: active no active wire
No CM Signal wire has been published for this event yet.
CM Signal’s news-cycle scan surfaces the day’s top stories alongside the prediction markets pricing them. When a story references this event, its wire is published here and links back to this page.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/new-zealand-election-turnout/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/new-zealand-election-turnout |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("new-zealand-election-turnout") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-08-04. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-Y5D2CNLN07",
"slug": "new-zealand-election-turnout",
"question": "Will New Zealand election turnout exceed 80% in the next election?",
"category": "politics",
"tags": [
"politics",
"elections",
"new-zealand",
"voter-turnout",
"2026"
],
"venues_covered": [
"polymarket"
],
"market_count": 6,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 18524,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "A",
"rcg_score": 81,
"rcg_caps": [],
"resolution_source": null,
"resolution_source_url": "https://elections.nz/",
"source_status": "platform_named",
"source_of_record": "New Zealand Electoral Commission",
"resolution_source_list": [
{
"name": "elections.nz",
"url": "https://elections.nz/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "New Zealand Electoral Commission",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
{
"name": "https://elections.nz/",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
}
],
"arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
"proposer_model": "managed_whitelist",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}