Will the New Zealand Labour Party win the most seats in the next legislative election? [ resolves 2026-11-07 (107D) ]
polymarket: [A] single source·objective outcome methodology ›
distribution · by outcome · marks: daily snapshot
polymarket 33 markets
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Labour Party | 2026-11-07 | 51.0% | — | $15K | A | 0x741d99…6d19 | ||
| National Party | 2026-11-07 | 42.0% | $377 | $21K | A | 0xba155b…bd04 | ||
| Green Party | 2026-11-07 | 0.1% | — | $3.5K | A | 0x88188d…198a | ||
| ACT New Zealand | 2026-11-07 | 0.1% | — | $3.4K | A | 0x1a7760…70a4 | ||
| New Zealand First Party | 2026-11-07 | 0.1% | — | $3.4K | A | 0xcf3de2…433b | ||
| Te Pāti Māori | 2026-11-07 | 0.1% | — | $3.5K | A | 0x1d8559…db32 | ||
| Party A | 2026-11-07 | 0.0% | — | — | A | 0xa341b5…59b6 | ||
| Party B | 2026-11-07 | 0.0% | — | — | A | 0xb66004…ed47 | ||
| Party C | 2026-11-07 | 0.0% | — | — | A | 0x457972…54d8 | ||
| Party D | 2026-11-07 | 0.0% | — | — | A | 0x056632…af47 | ||
| Party E | 2026-11-07 | 0.0% | — | — | A | 0xe68252…e873 | ||
| Party F | 2026-11-07 | 0.0% | — | — | A | 0x0bd0aa…528f | ||
| Party G | 2026-11-07 | 0.0% | — | — | A | 0x75a6fc…d7e0 | ||
| Party H | 2026-11-07 | 0.0% | — | — | A | 0x4fb57f…ca7b | ||
| Party I | 2026-11-07 | 0.0% | — | — | A | 0xfa2313…dff6 | ||
| Party J | 2026-11-07 | 0.0% | — | — | A | 0x74181e…c080 | ||
| Party K | 2026-11-07 | 0.0% | — | — | A | 0x977026…1f4a | ||
| Party L | 2026-11-07 | 0.0% | — | — | A | 0x23d779…4a37 | ||
| Party M | 2026-11-07 | 0.0% | — | — | A | 0x75929e…1a2e | ||
| Party N | 2026-11-07 | 0.0% | — | — | A | 0x11c542…d36f | ||
| Party O | 2026-11-07 | 0.0% | — | — | A | 0xbe8852…64ca | ||
| Party P | 2026-11-07 | 0.0% | — | — | A | 0x5a866c…7908 | ||
| Party Q | 2026-11-07 | 0.0% | — | — | A | 0x6e8ffe…8ed0 | ||
| Party R | 2026-11-07 | 0.0% | — | — | A | 0x9188bf…f693 | ||
| Party S | 2026-11-07 | 0.0% | — | — | A | 0x2f812c…0557 | ||
| Party T | 2026-11-07 | 0.0% | — | — | A | 0xf799c7…a4f4 | ||
| Party U | 2026-11-07 | 0.0% | — | — | A | 0xef6251…5116 | ||
| Party V | 2026-11-07 | 0.0% | — | — | A | 0x7e6d6b…1988 | ||
| Party W | 2026-11-07 | 0.0% | — | — | A | 0xc40d30…8e87 | ||
| Party X | 2026-11-07 | 0.0% | — | — | A | 0x33a331…c497 | ||
| Party Y | 2026-11-07 | 0.0% | — | — | A | 0x1b19a6…40b9 | ||
| Party Z | 2026-11-07 | 0.0% | — | — | A | 0xe10f54…d948 | ||
| Another party | 2026-11-07 | 0.0% | — | — | A | 0xcc0878…2da0 |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| polymarket | Whitelisted Proposers | not provided | not provided | Optimistic Oracle (UMA) | Other | — |
verbatim rules
polymarket
A general election is scheduled to be held in New Zealand on November 7, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the New Zealand House of Representatives as a result of this election.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid party list votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed name appears first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the New Zealand House of Representatives in this election.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by New Zealand government sources such as the New Zealand Electoral Commission (https://elections.nz/).
platform source field
polymarket.resolutionSource → ∅ none returned sources (2) · stated precedence rule
- elections.nz venue-listed
- New Zealand Electoral Commission source of record from rules text · editorial
recent wire items
monitoring status: active no active wire
No CM Signal wire has been published for this event yet.
CM Signal’s news-cycle scan surfaces the day’s top stories alongside the prediction markets pricing them. When a story references this event, its wire is published here and links back to this page.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/new-zealand-legislative-election-winner/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/new-zealand-legislative-election-winner |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("new-zealand-legislative-election-winner") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-07-23. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-DB92W53ZH3",
"slug": "new-zealand-legislative-election-winner",
"question": "Will the New Zealand Labour Party win the most seats in the next legislative election?",
"category": "politics",
"tags": [
"politics",
"elections",
"new-zealand",
"2026",
"parliament",
"legislative"
],
"venues_covered": [
"polymarket"
],
"market_count": 33,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 49511,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "A",
"rcg_score": 84,
"rcg_caps": [],
"resolution_source": null,
"resolution_source_url": "https://elections.nz/",
"source_status": "platform_named",
"source_of_record": "New Zealand Electoral Commission",
"resolution_source_list": [
{
"name": "elections.nz",
"url": "https://elections.nz/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "New Zealand Electoral Commission",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
}
],
"arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
"proposer_model": "managed_whitelist",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}