Will the party holding the most seats win the next Brazil Senate election by 2026? [ resolved 2026-10-05 ]
polymarket: [B] multiple sources, tie-break·objective outcome methodology ›
distribution · by outcome · marks: daily snapshot
polymarket 12 markets
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Partido Liberal (PL) | 2026-10-05 | 100.0% | — | $3.1K | B | 0x3e2cae…eb87 | ||
| Partido Novo (NOVO) | 2026-10-05 | 0.0% | — | $581 | B | 0x3e19c8…88b7 | ||
| Movimento Democrático Brasileiro (MDB) | 2026-10-05 | 0.0% | — | $696 | B | 0xd35fd2…e0e0 | ||
| Progressistas (PP) | 2026-10-05 | 0.0% | — | $588 | B | 0x0fd58b…da59 | ||
| Partido Socialista Brasileiro (PSB) | 2026-10-05 | 0.0% | — | $606 | B | 0x6673f9…5955 | ||
| Republicanos (REPUBLICANOS) | 2026-10-05 | 0.0% | — | $618 | B | 0x4e7c61…98b6 | ||
| Partido Democrático Trabalhista (PDT) | 2026-10-05 | 0.0% | — | $4.1K | B | 0x8b77c0…1947 | ||
| Partido dos Trabalhadores (PT) | 2026-10-05 | 0.0% | — | $844 | B | 0x97f38d…639f | ||
| União Brasil (UNIÃO) | 2026-10-05 | 0.0% | — | $606 | B | 0x8e0b4c…ee5f | ||
| Podemos (PODEMOS) | 2026-10-05 | 0.0% | — | $838 | B | 0xa88f15…6646 | ||
| Partido da Social Democracia Brasileira (PSDB) | 2026-10-05 | 0.0% | — | $800 | B | 0xc8c5e8…3b53 | ||
| Partido Social Democrático (PSD) | 2026-10-05 | 0.0% | — | $847 | B | 0x8da59d…3d22 |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| polymarket | Whitelisted Proposers | uncommitted | link | Optimistic Oracle (UMA) | Other | — |
verbatim rules
polymarket
The next federal Senate election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, in which two-thirds of the Senate’s 81 seats will be contested.
This market will resolve according to the political party that holds the greatest number of seats in the next Brazilian Senate as a result of the next Brazilian Senate election.
All seats, not only the ones contested in the next Brazilian Senate election, will be considered.
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats held, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats held by the named party in the Brazilian Senate as a result of the next Brazilian Senate election, not by any federation or coalition it may be a part of.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes) or the Brazilian Senate (https://www25.senado.leg.br/web/senadores/em-exercicio/-/e/por-partido).
platform source field
polymarket.description → https://www25.senado.leg.br/web/senadores/em-exercicio/-/e/por-partido resolution history
| outcome | market | venue | resolved | final price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NO | Will Movimento Democrático Brasileiro (MDB) hold the most seats as a result of the next Brazilian Senate election? | polymarket | 2026-10-05 | 0% |
| NO | Will Partido Democrático Trabalhista (PDT) hold the most seats as a result of the next Brazilian Senate election? | polymarket | 2026-10-05 | 0% |
| NO | Will Podemos (PODEMOS) hold the most seats as a result of the next Brazilian Senate election? | polymarket | 2026-10-05 | 0% |
| NO | Will Partido da Social Democracia Brasileira (PSDB) hold the most seats as a result of the next Brazilian Senate election? | polymarket | 2026-10-05 | 0% |
| NO | Will Progressistas (PP) hold the most seats as a result of the next Brazilian Senate election? | polymarket | 2026-10-05 | 0% |
| NO | Will Partido Socialista Brasileiro (PSB) hold the most seats as a result of the next Brazilian Senate election? | polymarket | 2026-10-05 | 0% |
| NO | Will Republicanos (REPUBLICANOS) hold the most seats as a result of the next Brazilian Senate election? | polymarket | 2026-10-05 | 0% |
| NO | Will Partido dos Trabalhadores (PT) hold the most seats as a result of the next Brazilian Senate election? | polymarket | 2026-10-05 | 0% |
| NO | Will União Brasil (UNIÃO) hold the most seats as a result of the next Brazilian Senate election? | polymarket | 2026-10-05 | 0% |
| NO | Will Partido Social Democrático (PSD) hold the most seats as a result of the next Brazilian Senate election? | polymarket | 2026-10-05 | 0% |
| NO | Will Partido Novo (NOVO) hold the most seats as a result of the next Brazilian Senate election? | polymarket | 2026-10-05 | 0% |
| YES | Will Partido Liberal (PL) hold the most seats as a result of the next Brazilian Senate election? | polymarket | 2026-10-05 | 100% |
Resolution dates are the venue's settlement timestamps (12 resolved markets). Rows shown as "by [date]" carry the contract deadline: the venue no longer exposes a settlement time for them. PENDING upgrades to a final outcome on the next refresh.
recent wire items
monitoring status: active no active wire
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programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/next-brazil-senate-election-most-seats-held/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/next-brazil-senate-election-most-seats-held |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("next-brazil-senate-election-most-seats-held") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-08-04. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-LHQHV6D330",
"slug": "next-brazil-senate-election-most-seats-held",
"question": "Will the party holding the most seats win the next Brazil Senate election by 2026?",
"category": "politics",
"tags": [
"politics",
"elections",
"brazil",
"senate",
"2026",
"partisan-control"
],
"venues_covered": [
"polymarket"
],
"market_count": 12,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 14181,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "B",
"rcg_score": 85,
"rcg_caps": [
"uncommitted_illustrative"
],
"resolution_source": null,
"resolution_source_url": "https://www25.senado.leg.br/web/senadores/em-exercicio/-/e/por-partido",
"source_status": "no_committed_source",
"source_of_record": null,
"resolution_source_list": null,
"arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
"proposer_model": "managed_whitelist",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}