Will the party holding the most seats win the next Brazil Senate election by 2026? [ resolves 2026-10-04 (90D) ]
polymarket: [B] multiple sources, tie-break·objective outcome methodology ›
distribution · by outcome · marks: daily snapshot
polymarket 12 markets
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Partido Liberal (PL) | 2026-10-04 | 83.0% | — | $3.1K | B | 0x3e2cae…eb87 | ||
| Progressistas (PP) | 2026-10-04 | 8.4% | — | $588 | B | 0x0fd58b…da59 | ||
| União Brasil (UNIÃO) | 2026-10-04 | 3.2% | — | $606 | B | 0x8e0b4c…ee5f | ||
| Partido Social Democrático (PSD) | 2026-10-04 | 1.9% | — | $847 | B | 0x8da59d…3d22 | ||
| Partido Novo (NOVO) | 2026-10-04 | 1.1% | — | $581 | B | 0x3e19c8…88b7 | ||
| Podemos (PODEMOS) | 2026-10-04 | 1.1% | — | $838 | B | 0xa88f15…6646 | ||
| Partido Socialista Brasileiro (PSB) | 2026-10-04 | 1.0% | — | $606 | B | 0x6673f9…5955 | ||
| Republicanos (REPUBLICANOS) | 2026-10-04 | 1.0% | — | $618 | B | 0x4e7c61…98b6 | ||
| Partido da Social Democracia Brasileira (PSDB) | 2026-10-04 | 0.9% | — | $800 | B | 0xc8c5e8…3b53 | ||
| Partido Democrático Trabalhista (PDT) | 2026-10-04 | 0.6% | — | $4.1K | B | 0x8b77c0…1947 | ||
| Movimento Democrático Brasileiro (MDB) | 2026-10-04 | 0.4% | — | $696 | B | 0xd35fd2…e0e0 | ||
| Partido dos Trabalhadores (PT) | 2026-10-04 | 0.4% | — | $844 | B | 0x97f38d…639f |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| polymarket | Whitelisted Proposers | uncommitted | link | Optimistic Oracle (UMA) | Other | — |
verbatim rules
polymarket
The next federal Senate election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, in which two-thirds of the Senate’s 81 seats will be contested.
This market will resolve according to the political party that holds the greatest number of seats in the next Brazilian Senate as a result of the next Brazilian Senate election.
All seats, not only the ones contested in the next Brazilian Senate election, will be considered.
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats held, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats held by the named party in the Brazilian Senate as a result of the next Brazilian Senate election, not by any federation or coalition it may be a part of.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes) or the Brazilian Senate (https://www25.senado.leg.br/web/senadores/em-exercicio/-/e/por-partido).
platform source field
polymarket.description → https://www25.senado.leg.br/web/senadores/em-exercicio/-/e/por-partido recent wire items
monitoring status: active no active wire
No CM Signal wire has been published for this event yet.
CM Signal’s news-cycle scan surfaces the day’s top stories alongside the prediction markets pricing them. When a story references this event, its wire is published here and links back to this page.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/next-brazil-senate-election-most-seats-held/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/next-brazil-senate-election-most-seats-held |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("next-brazil-senate-election-most-seats-held") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-07-06. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-LHQHV6D330",
"slug": "next-brazil-senate-election-most-seats-held",
"question": "Will the party holding the most seats win the next Brazil Senate election by 2026?",
"category": "politics",
"tags": [
"politics",
"elections",
"brazil",
"senate",
"2026",
"partisan-control"
],
"venues_covered": [
"polymarket"
],
"market_count": 12,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 14181,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "B",
"rcg_score": 85,
"rcg_caps": [
"uncommitted_illustrative"
],
"resolution_source": null,
"resolution_source_url": "https://www25.senado.leg.br/web/senadores/em-exercicio/-/e/por-partido",
"source_status": "no_committed_source",
"source_of_record": null,
"resolution_source_list": null,
"arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
"proposer_model": "managed_whitelist",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}