Will the Workers' Party win the most seats in the next Brazil Senate election? [ resolved 2026-10-05 ]
Will Partido Liberal (PL) win the most seats in the next Brazilian Senate election?
polymarket: [B] single source·reporting consensus methodology ›
distribution · by resolution date · marks: daily snapshot
polymarket 39 markets
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Another party | 2026-10-04 | 0.0% | — | — | B | 0x17eabc…4756 | ||
| Party A (A) | 2026-10-04 | 0.0% | — | — | B | 0x5e9383…d610 | ||
| Party B (B) | 2026-10-04 | 0.0% | — | — | B | 0xf6b43f…266e | ||
| Party C (C) | 2026-10-04 | 0.0% | — | — | B | 0xc38f6c…d2b5 | ||
| Party D (D) | 2026-10-04 | 0.0% | — | — | B | 0xe0fe67…b8b3 | ||
| Party E (E) | 2026-10-04 | 0.0% | — | — | B | 0x7d9514…27c7 | ||
| Party F (F) | 2026-10-04 | 0.0% | — | — | B | 0xd42181…7428 | ||
| Party G (G) | 2026-10-04 | 0.0% | — | — | B | 0xaa4fa2…711d | ||
| Party H (H) | 2026-10-04 | 0.0% | — | — | B | 0xe878a7…4db0 | ||
| Party I (I) | 2026-10-04 | 0.0% | — | — | B | 0xd009b2…6ff5 | ||
| Party J (J) | 2026-10-04 | 0.0% | — | — | B | 0xdd7ee0…b07c | ||
| Party K (K) | 2026-10-04 | 0.0% | — | — | B | 0x7ecb6b…b265 | ||
| Party L (L) | 2026-10-04 | 0.0% | — | — | B | 0xe9b93f…2e2b | ||
| Party M (M) | 2026-10-04 | 0.0% | — | — | B | 0xd6a4ef…2ce8 | ||
| Party N (N) | 2026-10-04 | 0.0% | — | — | B | 0xf16057…2f74 | ||
| Party O (O) | 2026-10-04 | 0.0% | — | — | B | 0xde234c…a071 | ||
| Party P (P) | 2026-10-04 | 0.0% | — | — | B | 0x7c14c7…146e | ||
| Party Q (Q) | 2026-10-04 | 0.0% | — | — | B | 0x690a95…53d8 | ||
| Party R (R) | 2026-10-04 | 0.0% | — | — | B | 0xf23ba2…15df | ||
| Party S (S) | 2026-10-04 | 0.0% | — | — | B | 0x1e1b46…0898 | ||
| Party T (T) | 2026-10-04 | 0.0% | — | — | B | 0xb7f319…800d | ||
| Party U (U) | 2026-10-04 | 0.0% | — | — | B | 0xe28088…7ee4 | ||
| Party V (V) | 2026-10-04 | 0.0% | — | — | B | 0xf97872…42ba | ||
| Party W (W) | 2026-10-04 | 0.0% | — | — | B | 0x70ff28…8dae | ||
| Party X (X) | 2026-10-04 | 0.0% | — | — | B | 0xe31bb1…adcd | ||
| Party Y (Y) | 2026-10-04 | 0.0% | — | — | B | 0xee2c81…bd68 | ||
| Party Z (Z) | 2026-10-04 | 0.0% | — | — | B | 0x1f92cc…cb3b | ||
| Partido Liberal (PL) | 2026-10-05 | 100.0% | — | $259K | B | 0xbd30a9…716d | ||
| Partido Social Democrático (PSD) | 2026-10-05 | 0.0% | — | $2.7K | B | 0xd8d831…c01d | ||
| Movimento Democrático Brasileiro (MDB) | 2026-10-05 | 0.0% | — | $7.8K | B | 0x10ad33…eeed | ||
| Partido dos Trabalhadores (PT) | 2026-10-05 | 0.0% | — | $3.0K | B | 0x654637…efb1 | ||
| União Brasil (UNIÃO) | 2026-10-05 | 0.0% | — | $2.9K | B | 0x81ccb2…1ae8 | ||
| Progressistas (PP) | 2026-10-05 | 0.0% | — | $2.5K | B | 0x78cb3a…a808 | ||
| Partido Socialista Brasileiro (PSB) | 2026-10-05 | 0.0% | — | $2.3K | B | 0x47d99c…34d4 | ||
| Podemos (PODEMOS) | 2026-10-05 | 0.0% | — | $2.6K | B | 0xd97e41…43e1 | ||
| Republicanos (REPUBLICANOS) | 2026-10-05 | 0.0% | — | $3.4K | B | 0x28c1fe…40d5 | ||
| Partido da Social Democracia Brasileira (PSDB) | 2026-10-05 | 0.0% | — | $2.4K | B | 0x8e0e6f…cbd2 | ||
| Partido Democrático Trabalhista (PDT) | 2026-10-05 | 0.0% | — | $2.1K | B | 0xdae3a5…4420 | ||
| Partido Novo (NOVO) | 2026-10-05 | 0.0% | — | $2.7K | B | 0x6a2bd9…c93b |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| polymarket | Whitelisted Proposers | not provided | link | Optimistic Oracle (UMA) | Other | — |
verbatim rules
polymarket
The next federal Senate election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, in which two-thirds of the Senate’s 81 seats will be contested.
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the next Brazilian Senate election.
Only seats contested in the next Brazilian Senate election will be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
platform source field
polymarket.description → www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes sources (3) · stated precedence rule
tse.jus.br committed source Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) from rules text www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes from rules text
resolution history
| outcome | market | venue | resolved | final price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| YES | Will Partido Liberal (PL) win the most seats in the next Brazilian Senate election? | polymarket | 2026-10-05 | 100% |
| NO | Will Partido dos Trabalhadores (PT) win the most seats in the next Brazilian Senate election? | polymarket | 2026-10-05 | 0% |
| NO | Will Movimento Democrático Brasileiro (MDB) win the most seats in the next Brazilian Senate election? | polymarket | 2026-10-05 | 0% |
| NO | Will Republicanos (REPUBLICANOS) win the most seats in the next Brazilian Senate election? | polymarket | 2026-10-05 | 0% |
| NO | Will Partido da Social Democracia Brasileira (PSDB) win the most seats in the next Brazilian Senate election? | polymarket | 2026-10-05 | 0% |
| NO | Will Partido Democrático Trabalhista (PDT) win the most seats in the next Brazilian Senate election? | polymarket | 2026-10-05 | 0% |
| NO | Will União Brasil (UNIÃO) win the most seats in the next Brazilian Senate election? | polymarket | 2026-10-05 | 0% |
| NO | Will Progressistas (PP) win the most seats in the next Brazilian Senate election? | polymarket | 2026-10-05 | 0% |
| NO | Will Partido Socialista Brasileiro (PSB) win the most seats in the next Brazilian Senate election? | polymarket | 2026-10-05 | 0% |
| NO | Will Podemos (PODEMOS) win the most seats in the next Brazilian Senate election? | polymarket | 2026-10-05 | 0% |
| NO | Will Partido Social Democrático (PSD) win the most seats in the next Brazilian Senate election? | polymarket | 2026-10-05 | 0% |
| NO | Will Partido Novo (NOVO) win the most seats in the next Brazilian Senate election? | polymarket | 2026-10-05 | 0% |
Resolution dates are the venue's settlement timestamps (12 resolved markets). Rows shown as "by [date]" carry the contract deadline: the venue no longer exposes a settlement time for them. PENDING upgrades to a final outcome on the next refresh.
recent wire items
monitoring status: active no active wire
No CM Signal wire has been published for this event yet.
CM Signal’s news-cycle scan surfaces the day’s top stories alongside the prediction markets pricing them. When a story references this event, its wire is published here and links back to this page.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/next-brazil-senate-election-most-seats-won/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/next-brazil-senate-election-most-seats-won |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("next-brazil-senate-election-most-seats-won") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-08-04. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-3N9BT0B4W8",
"slug": "next-brazil-senate-election-most-seats-won",
"question": "Will the Workers' Party win the most seats in the next Brazil Senate election?",
"category": "politics",
"tags": [
"elections",
"politics",
"brazil",
"senate",
"2026",
"seat-distribution"
],
"venues_covered": [
"polymarket"
],
"market_count": 39,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 292873,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "B",
"rcg_score": 78,
"rcg_caps": [],
"resolution_source": null,
"resolution_source_url": "www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes",
"source_status": "platform_named",
"source_of_record": "tse.jus.br",
"resolution_source_list": [
{
"name": "tse.jus.br",
"url": "www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE)",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
{
"name": "www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
}
],
"arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
"proposer_model": "managed_whitelist",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}