Will the next Claude Opus be released in 2026? (multi-deadline series) [ resolves 2026-07 – 2026-12 ]

Will the next Claude Opus model be released by July 29, 2026?

polymarket: [C] multiple sources, no tie-break·reporting consensus methodology ›

distribution · by resolution date · marks: daily snapshot

polymarket 11 markets

market	resolves	P(YES)	vol (24h)	vol (cum)	RCG	venue id
July 16,	2026-07-17	4.0%	—	$2.3K	C	`0x6f8418…1b72`
July 17,	2026-07-18	1.4%	—	$11K	C	`0x759969…653f`
July 22,	2026-07-23	0.2%	$5.8K	$80K	C	`0xf8e98e…d5b5`
July 23,	2026-07-23	0.0%	$95K	$95K	C	`0x25ecc5…e1e1`
July 24,	2026-07-24	100.0%	$77K	$162K	C	`0x78322c…3a8e`
July 27,	2026-07-27	100.0%	$15K	$15K	C	`0x66f14a…fde0`
July 29,	2026-07-29	63.0%	$2.9K	$2.9K	C	`0xcedee5…9ade`
July 31,	2026-07-31	84.4%	$49K	$182K	C	`0x7b2b0a…37d0`
August 31,	2026-08-31	96.1%	$24K	$57K	C	`0xa656c3…781e`
October 31,	2026-10-31	99.5%	$422	$7.4K	C	`0x237c01…5b11`
December 31,	2026-12-31	99.7%	$844	$4.1K	C	`0xfae472…5a73`

resolution architecture

venue	proposer	source	citation	arbitration	class	analyst notes
polymarket	`Whitelisted Proposers`	uncommitted	not provided	`Optimistic Oracle (UMA)`	`Other`	—

verbatim rules

polymarket 11 markets · share this text

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Anthropic's next Claude Opus model is made available to the general public by the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." Claude Opus refers to a model by Anthropic explicitly named Opus. Qualifying models include Claude Opus 4.9, Claude Opus 5.0, Opus 5, or any other Opus variants. Models under any other name, such as Sonnet, Haiku, Fable, or Mythos, will not qualify, unless the model is explicitly and officially named Opus by Anthropic. A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Anthropic as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Anthropic, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.

platform source field polymarket.resolutionSource → ∅ no committed source — see rules text above

sources (2)

official information from Anthropic from rules text · editorial
a consensus of credible reporting from rules text · editorial

resolution history

outcome	market	venue	resolved	final price
YES	Will the next Claude Opus model be released by July 24, 2026?	polymarket	`2026-07-24`	`100%`
YES	Will the next Claude Opus model be released by July 27, 2026?	polymarket	`2026-07-24`	`100%`
NO	Will the next Claude Opus model be released by July 23, 2026?	polymarket	`2026-07-24`	`0%`

Resolution dates are the venue's settlement timestamps (3 resolved markets). Rows shown as "by [date]" carry the contract deadline: the venue no longer exposes a settlement time for them. PENDING upgrades to a final outcome on the next refresh.

recent wire items

monitoring status: active no active wire

No CM Signal wire has been published for this event yet.

CM Signal’s news-cycle scan surfaces the day’s top stories alongside the prediction markets pricing them. When a story references this event, its wire is published here and links back to this page.

programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload

One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.

HTML	browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD `@type: Dataset`)	`https://clearmarket.fyi/events/next-claude-opus-released-byptptpt-20260701204710232/`
JSON	REST API for developers	`https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/next-claude-opus-released-byptptpt-20260701204710232`
MCP	agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue)	`clearmarket.get_event("next-claude-opus-released-byptptpt-20260701204710232")`
AGENT	AI crawler discovery index	`/llms.txt`

 Snapshot 2026-07-23. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
  raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint
 {
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-XCSPP0W7T4",
  "slug": "next-claude-opus-released-byptptpt-20260701204710232",
  "question": "Will the next Claude Opus be released in 2026? (multi-deadline series)",
  "category": "technology",
  "tags": [
    "technology",
    "ai",
    "claude",
    "anthropic",
    "model-release",
    "large-language-models"
  ],
  "venues_covered": [
    "polymarket"
  ],
  "market_count": 11,
  "cumulative_volume_usd": 618560,
  "resolution_clarity_grade": "C",
  "rcg_score": 48,
  "rcg_caps": [
    "multi_source_no_conflict_rule",
    "commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
  ],
  "resolution_source": null,
  "resolution_source_url": null,
  "source_status": "no_committed_source",
  "source_of_record": null,
  "resolution_source_list": [
    {
      "name": "official information from Anthropic",
      "url": null,
      "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
    },
    {
      "name": "a consensus of credible reporting",
      "url": null,
      "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
    }
  ],
  "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
  "proposer_model": "managed_whitelist",
  "field_provenance": {
    "question": {
      "source": "clearmarket_editorial"
    },
    "tags": {
      "source": "clearmarket_editorial",
      "ai_drafted": true
    },
    "resolution_clarity_grade": {
      "source": "derived",
      "method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
    },
    "venues_covered": {
      "source": "derived"
    }
  }
}

snapshot 2026-07-23T21:11:14.426158+00:00 schema v0.2.0-universe all events →