Will Claude Opus be released by 2026? [ resolves 2026-07 – 2026-07 ]
Will the next Claude Opus model be released on or prior to July 15, 2026?
polymarket: [C] multiple sources, no tie-break·reporting consensus methodology ›
distribution · by resolution date · marks: daily snapshot
polymarket 18 markets
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Be released on or prior to July 15, | 2026-07-16 | — | — | $30 | C | 0x511c20…6090 | ||
| Be released on July 16, | 2026-07-17 | — | — | $191 | C | 0xb7c312…3c4e | ||
| Be released on July 17, | 2026-07-18 | 0.1% | — | $250 | C | 0xd80ac3…7644 | ||
| Be released on July 18, | 2026-07-19 | 4.9% | — | $1.0K | C | 0x692bb4…105e | ||
| Be released on July 19, | 2026-07-20 | 0.1% | — | $974 | C | 0x7a9a59…0c51 | ||
| Be released on July 20, | 2026-07-21 | 6.0% | — | $1.8K | C | 0xf8af69…3279 | ||
| Be released on July 21, | 2026-07-22 | 0.1% | — | $8.2K | C | 0xe9f0ef…3daa | ||
| Be released on July 22, | 2026-07-23 | 0.1% | $259 | $2.9K | C | 0x87c9dc…e8d5 | ||
| Be released on July 23, | 2026-07-23 | 0.0% | $56K | $64K | C | 0x5b959c…d0ca | ||
| Be released on July 24, | 2026-07-24 | 100.0% | $23K | $23K | C | 0x1a4c42…092a | ||
| Be released on July 25, | 2026-07-25 | 0.0% | $6.6K | $8.2K | C | 0xcfdf07…6e95 | ||
| Be released on July 26, | 2026-07-26 | 0.0% | $6.5K | $8.1K | C | 0xd416dd…dd79 | ||
| Be released on July 27, | 2026-07-27 | 0.0% | $13K | $17K | C | 0x0eb474…adf5 | ||
| Be released on July 28, | 2026-07-28 | 10.2% | $14K | $17K | C | 0x5948ab…68e9 | ||
| Be released on July 29, | 2026-07-29 | 2.8% | $9.8K | $11K | C | 0xa0178e…5c0d | ||
| Be released on July 30, | 2026-07-30 | 12.0% | $15K | $17K | C | 0x700a22…0297 | ||
| Not be released by July 31, | 2026-07-31 | 18.8% | $16K | $27K | C | 0x1fc9cd…4df3 | ||
| Be released on July 31, | 2026-07-31 | 4.0% | $7.8K | $8.4K | C | 0xb9034d…7727 |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| polymarket | Whitelisted Proposers | uncommitted | not provided | Optimistic Oracle (UMA) | Other | — |
verbatim rules
polymarket
This market will resolve according to the date (ET) on which Anthropic's next Claude Opus model is made available to the general public.
Claude Opus refers to a model by Anthropic explicitly named Opus. Qualifying models include Claude Opus 4.9, Claude Opus 5.0, Opus 5, or any other Opus variants. Models under any other name, such as Sonnet, Haiku, Fable, or Mythos, will not qualify, unless the model is explicitly and officially named Opus by Anthropic.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Anthropic as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Anthropic, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
platform source field
polymarket.resolutionSource → ∅ no committed source — see rules text above sources (2)
- official information from Anthropic from rules text · editorial
- a consensus of credible reporting from rules text · editorial
resolution history
| outcome | market | venue | resolved | final price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| YES | Will the next Claude Opus model be released on July 24, 2026? | polymarket | 2026-07-24 | 100% |
| NO | Will the next Claude Opus model be released on July 25, 2026? | polymarket | 2026-07-24 | 0% |
| NO | Will the next Claude Opus model be released on July 26, 2026? | polymarket | 2026-07-24 | 0% |
| NO | Will the next Claude Opus model be released on July 27, 2026? | polymarket | 2026-07-24 | 0% |
| NO | Will the next Claude Opus model be released on July 23, 2026? | polymarket | 2026-07-24 | 0% |
Resolution dates are the venue's settlement timestamps (5 resolved markets). Rows shown as "by [date]" carry the contract deadline: the venue no longer exposes a settlement time for them. PENDING upgrades to a final outcome on the next refresh.
recent wire items
monitoring status: active no active wire
No CM Signal wire has been published for this event yet.
CM Signal’s news-cycle scan surfaces the day’s top stories alongside the prediction markets pricing them. When a story references this event, its wire is published here and links back to this page.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/next-claude-opus-released-onptptpt-20260714203533730/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/next-claude-opus-released-onptptpt-20260714203533730 |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("next-claude-opus-released-onptptpt-20260714203533730") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-07-23. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-1SY2K0TDF3",
"slug": "next-claude-opus-released-onptptpt-20260714203533730",
"question": "Will Claude Opus be released by 2026?",
"category": "technology",
"tags": [
"technology",
"ai",
"claude",
"model-release",
"anthropic",
"2026"
],
"venues_covered": [
"polymarket"
],
"market_count": 18,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 214750,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "C",
"rcg_score": 48,
"rcg_caps": [
"multi_source_no_conflict_rule",
"commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
],
"resolution_source": null,
"resolution_source_url": null,
"source_status": "no_committed_source",
"source_of_record": null,
"resolution_source_list": [
{
"name": "official information from Anthropic",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
{
"name": "a consensus of credible reporting",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
}
],
"arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
"proposer_model": "managed_whitelist",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}