The next Claude Opus debut at a score of by December 31, 2026 [ resolves 2026-12-31 (161D) ]
polymarket: [B] single source·reporting consensus methodology ›
distribution · by outcome · marks: daily snapshot
polymarket 6 markets
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1470 | 2026-12-31 | 81.0% | $1.1K | $8.2K | B | 0xccd3b4…5f41 | ||
| 1480 | 2026-12-31 | 68.0% | $3.6K | $4.7K | B | 0xeb1d16…0ff8 | ||
| 1490 | 2026-12-31 | 57.0% | $1.6K | $3.9K | B | 0x0cabaf…0b35 | ||
| 1500 | 2026-12-31 | 21.0% | $1.1K | $6.0K | B | 0x93faa0…0c7b | ||
| 1510 | 2026-12-31 | 5.4% | $3.1K | $5.1K | B | 0xf479f3…0c7e | ||
| 1520 | 2026-12-31 | 3.1% | $204 | $6.6K | B | 0xfe395d…062d |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| polymarket | Whitelisted Proposers | not provided | link | Optimistic Oracle (UMA) | Other | — |
verbatim rules
polymarket
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the next Claude Opus model added to the Arena.AI Leaderboard (https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control) has at least the specified score at 12:00 PM ET on the calendar date following the date on which it first appears on the leaderboard. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Any Claude model newly added to the leaderboard and labeled as "Opus" may qualify (e.g., claude-Opus-4.9, claude-Opus-5.0-thinking, claude-Opus-5.1-preview, or similar). Claude models labeled only as Sonnet, Haiku, or another non-Opus variant will not qualify.
Results from the "Score" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off will be used to resolve this market. This market will resolve solely based on the specified score in the Score column of the leaderboard, regardless of any underlying granular or unrounded data presented elsewhere.
If multiple models are added to the leaderboard on the same calendar date (ET), the highest-scoring model will be used for resolution. Models added to the leaderboard on the calendar date following the initial qualifying model’s first appearance will not be considered.
A qualifying model must be newly added to the Arena.AI Leaderboard. Whether the model was previously released, publicly accessible, in beta, or otherwise available before appearing on the leaderboard is irrelevant for this market.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at arena.ai/leaderboard/text. If this resolution source is unavailable at 12:00 PM ET on the calendar date following the date on which the qualifying model first appears on the leaderboard, this market will resolve based on the first subsequent instance at which such a score becomes available on the leaderboard. If it remains unavailable through the end of the seventh day after the qualifying model first appears on the leaderboard or if no qualifying model release occurs by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
platform source field
polymarket.description → https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control sources (3) · single authority
- arena.ai source of record venue-listed
- Arena.AI Leaderboard from rules text · editorial
- Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard from rules text · editorial
recent wire items
monitoring status: active no active wire
No CM Signal wire has been published for this event yet.
CM Signal’s news-cycle scan surfaces the day’s top stories alongside the prediction markets pricing them. When a story references this event, its wire is published here and links back to this page.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/next-claude-opus-text-arena-debut-20260714204425670/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/next-claude-opus-text-arena-debut-20260714204425670 |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("next-claude-opus-text-arena-debut-20260714204425670") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-07-23. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-89W6NSBXH7",
"slug": "next-claude-opus-text-arena-debut-20260714204425670",
"question": "The next Claude Opus debut at a score of by December 31, 2026",
"category": "technology",
"tags": [
"technology",
"ai",
"claude",
"benchmark-performance",
"llm-capability",
"anthropic"
],
"venues_covered": [
"polymarket"
],
"market_count": 6,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 34523,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "B",
"rcg_score": 72,
"rcg_caps": [],
"resolution_source": null,
"resolution_source_url": "https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control",
"source_status": "platform_named",
"source_of_record": "arena.ai",
"resolution_source_list": [
{
"name": "arena.ai",
"url": "https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "Arena.AI Leaderboard",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
{
"name": "Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
}
],
"arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
"proposer_model": "managed_whitelist",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}